Weekly protein digest: Global dairy markets navigate strong supply and rising costs

18 April 2026

22 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Lean hog futures bears in technical control… June lean hog futures on Wednesday fell $0.50 to $101.95 and hit a more-than-three-month low. The lean hog futures market saw more technical selling pressure at mid-week, amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 6 cents at $90.33. Today’s projected cash index price is up 27 cents at $90.60. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $69.80.

Cattle futures see routine profit-taking

June live cattle on Wednesday fell $0.35 to $251.075. May feeder cattle lost $3.90 to $370.95. The cattle futures markets saw routine profit-taking pressure that is not unhealthy for the price uptrends to be extended. Solid cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain intact. USDA reported light cash cattle trading so far this week at an average of $247.93. Last week’s average cash trade was $248.38. That’s up $3.42 from the prior week’s average of $244.96.

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net US sales of 12,100 MT for 2026 were down 31 percent from the previous week, but up 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT, including 100 MT switched from Hong Kong and decreases of 200 MT), and Canada (400 MT). Exports of 13,400 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,200 MT), Japan (3,000 MT), Hong Kong (1,500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). 

Pork: Net US sales of 37,300 MT for 2026 were up 19 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (11,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (8,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (3,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (2,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Australia (2,000 MT). Total net sales of 200 MT for 2027 were for Japan. Exports of 35,300 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,600 MT), Japan (5,400 MT), South Korea (4,100 MT), China (2,900 MT), and Colombia (1,400 MT)

Virginia cattle producers confront drought, risk costs and land pressures 

Industry leaders warn that weather stress, expensive insurance tools, and competing land uses are shaping decisions at a critical moment for herd rebuilding

As producers gather for the Virginia Beef Expo at the Rockingham County Fairgrounds, industry concerns are converging around a volatile mix of weather, market risk, and long-term land use pressures. In an interview ahead of the event, Brandon Reeves, executive director of the Virginia Cattlemen’s Association, outlined the most pressing issues facing cattle producers in Virginia and across the US

Drought threatens herd rebuilding momentum. Reeves emphasized that persistent dryness in Virginia mirrors broader national conditions, raising concerns about forage availability and pasture health. Drought has historically been one of the most significant constraints on cattle expansion, as limited grazing forces producers to reduce herd sizes or rely on costly supplemental feed.

The US cattle industry is currently in the early stages of rebuilding after years of contraction driven by earlier drought cycles, particularly across the Plains. However, prolonged dry conditions can quickly reverse that progress. Without adequate pasture, producers are less likely to retain heifers for breeding — a key step in expanding the national cowherd — delaying recovery and keeping beef supplies tight.

Of note: Virginia farmers are gaining access to federal disaster assistance after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins approved drought disaster designations covering 24 localities across the state. The primary disaster areas — Brunswick, Greensville, and Southampton counties — are now eligible for direct support through the Farm Service Agency (FSA), including access to emergency loan programs. Additional counties and cities across Virginia qualify as contiguous disaster areas, expanding eligibility statewide due to the geographic spread of drought conditions. The assistance centers on FSA emergency loans, which are issued on a case-by-case basis depending on each producer’s financial situation and operational losses. Eligible farmers have up to eight months from the date of designation to apply. The designations were triggered by sustained drought severity, with impacted regions experiencing either severe drought (D2) conditions for at least eight consecutive weeks or escalating to extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought levels, according to the US Drought Monitor. These thresholds reflect significant stress on crops and pasture, reinforcing concerns about production losses and broader impacts on the state’s agricultural sector.

High cattle prices collide with costly risk protection. Record-high cattle prices, while boosting revenues, have created a paradox: risk management tools are becoming prohibitively expensive. Reeves pointed specifically to Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance, a widely used federal program designed to protect producers against price declines.

Because LRP premiums are tied to market prices and volatility, today’s elevated price environment has pushed those premiums to record levels. For many operators — particularly stocker cattle producers who buy and grow animals before resale — the cost of coverage now exceeds expected profit margins.

This dynamic is forcing producers into difficult decisions: either pay high premiums and lock in potential losses, or forgo protection and remain exposed to sudden market downturns. Reeves warned that if cattle markets were to fall sharply — similar to prior cycles — the lack of widespread risk coverage could amplify financial stress across the sector.

Market volatility driven by global and domestic shocks. Beyond price levels, volatility itself is a growing concern. Reeves pointed to a combination of geopolitical and biological risks, including the ongoing Iran conflict, processing disruptions, and the spread of New World screwworm, as key drivers of uncertainty.

Cattle futures have experienced sharper swings as price limits expand alongside higher valuations, increasing the potential for rapid gains — and losses. While tight cattle supplies are fundamentally supportive of prices, producers remain exposed to factors far outside their control, from export disruptions to disease outbreaks and plant closures.

This environment makes planning more difficult, particularly for operations with narrow margins or significant exposure to feed and input costs.

Cartel influence touches Mexico’s cattle sector but falls short of industry control

Extortion, smuggling and laundering activities intersect with ranching, while formal beef production and processing remain largely regulated and independent

Mexico’s powerful criminal organizations have a presence in the country’s rural economy, but their role in the beef sector is best understood as indirect and uneven rather than dominant. While cartel activity does intersect with cattle production in certain regions, there is little evidence that organized crime groups control the formal beef production or processing industry, particularly at the large-scale, export-oriented level tied to US markets.

In many parts of rural Mexico, ranchers operate under pressure from organized crime groups that demand protection payments or engage in theft and intimidation. This dynamic mirrors cartel involvement in other agricultural sectors and reflects broader territorial control strategies rather than a targeted effort to run livestock businesses. The result is a layer of coercion imposed on producers, which can raise costs and disrupt operations without fundamentally altering ownership or management of cattle enterprises.

Beyond extortion, there are documented cases of illicit activity involving cattle itself. Criminal networks have been linked to cattle smuggling, including cross-border movements that raise concerns about disease transmission and biosecurity. There are also instances of so-called “narco-ranching,” where cattle operations are used as a vehicle for money laundering or as a supplementary income stream. However, these activities tend to be fragmented and opportunistic, not a central pillar of cartel finances.

Cartels have also exploited livestock supply chains for logistical purposes. Authorities have identified cases in which livestock trailers were used to transport narcotics, underscoring how existing agricultural infrastructure can be leveraged for illicit trade. These practices reflect tactical use of the sector rather than systemic control over it.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s formal beef production and processing industry operates within a structured and regulated framework, particularly for exports. Facilities that ship beef to the United States are subject to inspection, traceability requirements, and sanitary controls that make large-scale cartel penetration difficult. This regulatory environment has helped insulate the core of the industry from the kind of direct control seen in some illicit agricultural markets.

The overall picture is one of contrast. Mexico’s beef industry remains a legitimate, organized sector integrated into global supply chains, while cartel involvement is largely parasitic, exerting pressure from the outside or exploiting gaps where they exist. The degree of impact varies by region, with areas facing stronger cartel presence experiencing more disruption, but the national industry itself continues to function independently of organized crime control, according to analysts.

JBS labor deal ratified, bringing Colorado strike to an end

Overwhelming worker approval clears path for resumed operations and stabilizes US beef supply chain

Workers at JBS’s Greeley, Colorado beef plant voted Sunday to ratify a new labor agreement, formally ending a strike that had disrupted operations and raised concerns across US cattle and beef markets.

The contract was approved by a wide margin — with roughly 93% of union members voting in favor — signaling strong support for the negotiated terms and a decisive close to the dispute. The ratification follows last week’s tentative agreement between the company and union leadership after negotiations focused on wages, benefits, and workplace safety conditions.

With the agreement now in place, the facility is expected to move toward resuming normal operations, restoring critical processing capacity in a key cattle-producing region. The Greeley plant is one of the largest beef processing facilities in the US, and its disruption had begun to ripple through the supply chain — backing up feedlot-ready cattle while tightening available beef supplies.

Meanwhile, the resolution is likely to ease near-term volatility in both cash cattle markets and boxed beef prices. During the strike, reduced slaughter capacity created localized imbalances, pressuring some cattle prices while supporting wholesale beef values due to constrained output.

The outcome also highlights the broader structural pressures facing the US meatpacking sector, where labor availability and compensation remain central challenges. Even as this dispute concludes, similar tensions could continue to influence processing margins, plant utilization rates, and ultimately consumer meat prices.

Attention now shifts to how quickly the plant can ramp back up to full capacity and whether any residual supply chain disruptions linger in the weeks ahead.

Screwworm cases press toward US border as Mexico outbreak expands

Detections within miles of Texas heighten vigilance, but officials say no US infestations have been confirmed

New detections of New World screwworm in northern Mexico are raising concern across the US livestock sector, as the outbreak edges closer to the southern border without yet crossing into the United States. Recent confirmed cases in Mexican states including Nuevo León and Tamaulipas place the parasite within roughly 70 miles of Texas, marking one of the closest approaches to US territory in decades and underscoring the accelerating northward spread of the pest.

Despite that proximity, federal officials emphasize that there are still no confirmed infestations in US animals or wildlife. Surveillance systems, including trapping networks and cross-border monitoring, have not detected the parasite within US borders. The only US-linked case identified during the current outbreak has been travel-related, not the result of domestic transmission, reinforcing the view that the infestation remains contained to Mexico for now.

The outbreak’s scale, however, is significant. Regional data indicate more than 150,000 animal cases and over 1,000 human infections tied to the parasite, which is known for its ability to infest wounds in livestock and wildlife, causing severe economic and animal health damage. The steady movement north through Mexico has heightened concern among US officials and producers, particularly given the parasite’s ability to spread through animal movement, wildlife corridors, and short-distance fly dispersal.

In response, USDA has intensified its containment strategy in coordination with Mexican authorities. Central to that effort is the large-scale release of sterile flies — a long-standing eradication method — with roughly 100 million released weekly to disrupt reproduction cycles in affected areas. Dispersal efforts have expanded toward the northern edge of the outbreak zone, creating a buffer intended to prevent the pest from reaching the US border and beyond. Additional investments in surveillance and sterile fly production capacity are also underway, including preparations to strengthen defenses in southern Texas if needed.

Officials maintain that even cases several hundred miles from the border do not necessarily translate into immediate risk for US livestock, citing the effectiveness of containment protocols and decades of experience with eradication campaigns. Still, the narrowing geographic gap is prompting heightened vigilance across border states, where producers and animal health authorities are closely monitoring for any signs of incursion.

The situation leaves the US in a familiar but precarious position — relying on aggressive, binational control measures to hold the line just south of the border. For now, those measures appear to be working. But with the outbreak entrenched in northern Mexico, the margin for error is shrinking, and the coming months will be critical in determining whether the screwworm can be contained before it reaches US soil once again.

Red meat and Alzheimer’s risk — new research challenges dietary consensus

Wall Street Journal highlights emerging evidence that unprocessed red meat may benefit certain genetically at-risk individuals

A new opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal points to growing scientific evidence suggesting that red meat consumption — long criticized in mainstream dietary guidance — may offer cognitive benefits for a subset of the population genetically predisposed to Alzheimer’s disease.

The article, citing recent research including a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, focuses on individuals carrying the APOE4 gene variant, one of the strongest genetic risk factors for Alzheimer’s. Roughly 25% of people carry one copy of this variant, while about 2% carry two, significantly elevating their risk — particularly among women.

According to the research, higher consumption of meat — especially unprocessed red meat — is associated with a markedly lower risk of dementia among APOE4 carriers. In one study from Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, individuals with the gene variant who consumed the most meat (around 4.5 ounces daily) showed dementia risk levels comparable to those without the genetic risk.

Additional large-scale studies from the UK reinforce these findings. One found that each additional 50 grams of red meat per day reduced dementia risk by 36% among APOE4 carriers, while another showed cognitive advantages in older women with the variant who consumed at least one daily serving of unprocessed red meat.

Researchers suggest several possible mechanisms. APOE4 carriers tend to have higher cholesterol, which may accumulate in brain cells and contribute to Alzheimer’s pathology. Nutrients abundant in red meat — including vitamin B12, iron, and zinc — may help counteract these effects, particularly as absorption efficiency declines with age.

Meanwhile, the findings complicate broad public health recommendations. The American Heart Association has recently encouraged a shift toward plant-based proteins, partly in response to updated federal dietary guidance. However, the research suggests that such one-size-fits-all advice may overlook meaningful genetic differences in dietary needs.

The article underscores a broader takeaway: nutrition may be more individualized than current policy frameworks assume. While high red meat consumption may not benefit the general population, emerging evidence indicates it could play a protective role for those with specific genetic profiles — raising new questions for both dietary science and public health guidance.

China supply and demand can significantly impact world trade 

China is the world’s second largest producer of chicken meat, significantly behind the United States and often on par with Brazil. However, USDA says China production is forecast to rise well above Brazil in 2026. Vast China production supports consumption for its population of 1.4 billion people (approximately 17 percent of the world population). Despite some longer-term shifts in diet and lifestyle, China chicken consumption remains relatively low (11 kg/per capita) compared to pork (43 kg/per capita) and beef (8 kg/per capita) in 2025. 

China chicken meat consumption is also lower compared to other countries such as the United States (55 kg), Japan (24 kg), and Taiwan (42 kg). Trade has traditionally been a relatively small portion of China’s chicken meat balance sheet, with some variations due to market events such as disease outbreaks. Historically, China was a net importer becoming a net exporter in 2024. Imports as a percentage of consumption have ranged from 2 to 5 percent. Exports as a percentage of production have ranged from 3 to 5 percent but have risen since 2024 and are forecast to reach 8 percent in 2026.

USDA reports on global beef and veal

Global production in 2026 is forecast 1 percent lower to 61.6 million tons as decreasing production in Brazil, the United States, China, the European Union, and Australia more than offsets increases in India, Mexico, and New Zealand. Following a record year in 2025, Brazil production is forecast 2 percent lower to 12.4 million tons. Despite the forecast decline, Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest beef producer. Australia beef production is forecast to decline 1 percent to 2.9 million tons on reduced cattle slaughter. 

EU production is forecast down 1 percent as high input costs and regulatory pressures limit growth. Mexico production is forecast to increase 11 percent in 2026 as the closure of the US–Mexico border to live cattle has increased the availability of slaughter-ready animals. Global exports are forecast to decrease 1 percent in 2026 to 13.8 million tons as reductions in Brazil, Australia, the United States, and the European Union outweigh increases to India, Argentina, New Zealand, and Mexico. 

Global trade flows are expected to undergo significant reshuffling as China, the world’s largest importer, implements a series of tariff rate quotas (TRQ) that will limit its imports, particularly from Brazil and Australia. China beef imports are forecast down 13 percent in 2026. Despite lower production and China TRQs, Brazil and Australia exports are forecast down only 2 percent, supported by strong US import demand. 

US imports are forecast to increase 6 percent as demand for lean trimmings remains robust. Despite lower production, Argentina exports are forecast 3 percent higher to 800,000 tons due to a favorable China TRQ allocation and an expanded country-specific quota (CSQ) with the United States. Mexico exports are forecast to increase 23 percent on increased availability of slaughter-ready animals and firm demand for beef from the United States. US production and exports are forecast at 11.7 million tons and 1.1 million tons—down 1 percent and 8 percent, respectively. 

Beef production is forecast to decline due to the constrained availability of steers and heifers for feedlot placement, exacerbated by restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico. Lower production will drive down US beef exports. High export prices resulting from tight domestic supplies, coupled with the loss of access to the China market, will continue to pose headwinds for US shipments. Strong competition in key Asia markets — South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan — will also limit export opportunities.

USDA reports on global pork market

Global production in 2026 is forecast 1 percent higher to 120.2 million tons as increased production in the United States, Brazil, China and Canada offsets lower production in the European Union. Brazil pork production is forecast 3 percent higher to 4.9 million tons as abundant feed supplies and strong international demand supports sector growth. 

China pork production is forecast marginally higher to 59.5 million tons as improvement in pigs per litter is anticipated to lead to higher slaughter, albeit at slightly lower weights given sector pressure to reduce production. Canada pork production is forecast 2 percent higher to 2.2 million tons as marginally higher sow stocks and steady pigs per litter growth will increase animals for slaughter. 

EU pork production is forecast 1 percent lower to 21.7 million tons given tightening profit margins and ample supplies of pork within the EU. The decline in EU hog prices at the end of 2025, partly due to tariffs on pork exports to China and the discovery of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain, will likely pressure the EU to reduce herd inventories. Global exports are forecast virtually unchanged at 10.4 million tons as stronger shipments from Brazil, the United States, and Canada offset lower exports from the European Union. 

Brazil exports are forecast 7 percent higher given gains in market access and strong price competitiveness against other major exporters. Canada exports are forecast 4 percent higher given greater exportable supplies and government efforts to increase market access. EU exports are forecast 8 percent lower given reduced exportable supplies and disease-related trade restrictions. US production and exports: US pork production is forecast 1 percent higher year over year to 12.7 million tons as continued growth in pigs per litter supports a larger 2026 slaughter despite a smaller sow inventory. Stable feed prices and relatively strong hog prices should support heavier hog weights in 2026. 

US exports are forecast 3 percent higher in 2026 given robust demand in Mexico and Central America. Additionally, expected lower EU exports should provide opportunities for US exports to expand in key markets in Asia.

Weekly USDA dairy report 

 CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (4/10) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.7475. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.7425 (-0.0431). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.5750 and 40# blocks at $1.5775. The weekly average for barrels is $1.5840 (-0.0016) and blocks $1.6080 (-0.0226). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $2.1150. The weekly average for Grade A is $2.0295 (+0.0845). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7050. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6970 (+0.0082). 

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders report that retail demand for butter is generally steady. Some manufacturers note butter sales are up year over year. Bulk butter demand is strong from both domestic and international buyers. Spring flush is resulting in large amounts of milk and cream. However, competing demand from Class II and III manufacturers is keeping cream availability somewhat limited for butter producers. Contractual and spot load intakes at butter production facilities are keeping churns busy seven days a week. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 7 cents above market across all regions. 

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Northeast milk production is in the spring flush, supporting stronger cheese production. Steady retail demand is helping balance lighter bulk interest. Exports remain steady with rising interest from Southeast Asia, and inventories are well balanced. Central milk volumes are plentiful as the spring flush begins, supporting busy post-holiday production. Class III spot milk ranges from $7 under to $2 under Class. Cheese output is steady. Demand and export interest remain soft but are expected to improve. In the Western region, strong spring milk output supports steady to stronger cheese production, though spot cheese availability varies and some varieties are tight. Domestic demand ranges from lighter to stronger, food service demand lags other sectors, and export interest holds steady to strong. 

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Spring flush is in full swing nationwide. Some areas have reached their peak production while other regions are still ramping up. Milkfat is down slightly, but still higher than in recent years. Bottling demand is up in most areas as many educational institutions resume classes after spring break. Class II demand for cream is rising. Ice cream producers are ramping up operations and building inventories for summer. Class III demand is steady. Many cheese makers are increasing manufacturing, some taking in spot loads of milk at a discount. Class III spot prices range from $7-under to $2-under. Class IV demand is steady to strong. Some butter makers are taking in spot volumes of cream to keep churns full. Nonfat dry milk demand remains strong. Condensed skim availability was higher this week. Planned downtime at several plants last week provided additional amounts of condensed skim for the market. As a result, condensed skim was selling at a discount in some areas. Cream multiples for all Classes range:1.15 – 1.42 in the East; 1.00 – 1.27 in the Midwest; 1.06 – 1.28 in the West. 

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk prices were mixed across regions this week. The low/medium heat prices in the Central and East regions declining at the lower end of the range but rising slightly at the upper end, while the mostly range held steady at the low end and moved higher at the top. High heat prices in the Central and East regions increased at the low end and were unchanged at the top, and all price levels in the West strengthened. Dry buttermilk prices firmed across all regions except for the Central and East, where the lower end remained steady. Dry whey markets were steady to higher, led by the largest gain at the bottom of the Central region’s price range. Lactose prices were mostly stable with a slight decrease at the upper end. Production remains steady, but tight inventories continue to limit availability, particularly for higher mesh product. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices were largely steady, with only minor softening at the top of the price range. Dry whole milk strengthened at both ends of the range and continues to trend above year ago levels. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged. 

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: 

WEST EUROPE: UK dairy markets are moving through the spring flush with strong milk output, as England's production continues to track seasonally higher into April and adds to already ample supplies. EU milk prices have remained stable in early March at around 42 cents per liter, as balanced conditions across key producers including Germany and France offset minor adjustments seen in Spain and Italy. 

EAST EUROPE: Georgia's dairy import profile shifted notably in early 2026, with milk purchases from Russia increasing sharply to record levels and strengthening its position as the leading supplier. Infant formula recalls have expanded across Europe following contamination concerns, with additional withdrawals reported in Eastern EU markets including Poland, Romania, and Hungary. 

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia is working with industry partners to address ongoing fuel and fertilizer supply constraints and rising input costs caused by global supply chain disruptions. With pressures expected to continue, Dairy Australia has activated its Issues Management Framework to coordinate a unified industry response, collaborating with Australian Dairy Farmers (ADF), the Australian Dairy Products Federation (ADPF), and government agencies to assess on farm impacts and ensure farmers are supported. 

NEW ZEALAND: The 2026 - 2027 season milk price forecast has been revised down from $9.64/kgMS to $9.41/kgMS. This update reflects an NZD-USD exchange rate assumption of 0.5900 and maintains a forecast range of $9.10 to $10.02/kgMS. The 2026 - 2027 Milk Price Futures contract last settled at $9.43/kgMS. 

SOUTH AMERICA: Although seasonally changes are taking place in South America that lighten milk production, stakeholders indicate milk supplies remain strong. Stakeholders anticipate wetter weather in key dairy areas to take place this year, which could put pressure on milk output. Production of milk powders varies from steady to lighter. Energy costs for producers are increasing. Industry sources indicate production costs are generally increasing quicker than milk prices, and consumer purchasing power is weakening.