Weekly protein report: Dry dairy prices slip as demand stays uneven

3 July 2026

17 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

Africa

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

US Beef: Net sales of 21,300 MT for 2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (7,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT) and Hong Kong (1,200 MT). Exports of 13,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT). Export Adjustments: Accumulated exports of beef were adjusted down 2,300 MT to Vietnam (58 MT), Canada (368 MT), Egypt (424 MT), Japan (141 MT), Italy (155 MT), Kuwait (176 MT), Mexico (177 MT), Morocco (218 MT), Oman (63 MT), Qatar (215 MT), Saudi Arabia (128 MT) and South Korea (177 MT) for week ending June 4. These exports were reported in error. 

US Pork: Net sales of 26,200 MT for 2026 were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (9,700 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Japan (3,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (2,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Colombia (2,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT) and Canada (2,100 MT, including decreases of 300 MT). Total net sales of 200 MT for 2027 were for Australia. Exports of 32,000 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,900 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China (3,400 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT) and Colombia (1,500 MT).

Cattle futures see mild profit taking

August live cattle on Wednesday fell 60 cents to $241.825, while August feeders fell 45 cents to $364.15. The cattle futures markets were mixed in midweek trade as live cattle futures posted modest corrective gains, while feeders extended lower for the fourth straight session, though sellers were limited by solid technical support. Live cattle futures continue to face modest selling, extending the series of declines, as feeders faded modestly as traders continue to assess the impact of the return of New World screwworm in the US Fed cattle supplies remain tight, which should continue to support futures for the foreseeable future, with packers actively working to reduce slaughter due to severely negative margins. Pasture conditions may see some improvement due to rains forecasted for some of the driest areas of Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota, though recent heat across much of the US has brought stress to a notable portion of the US cattle herd. USDA at midday today reported very light cash cattle trading taking place at an average price of $256.00. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading prices last week averaged $259.34, down 29 cents from the week prior.

NWS case count rises, but inactive cases show containment is a slow grind

New Uvalde and Pecos detections expand the confirmed-county map, while more inactive case listings show treatment progress without signaling a quick end to eradication work.

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) now lists 31 confirmed New World screwworm cases in the United States, with nine shifted to inactive status and 21 still active. The latest additions include a June 29 cattle case in Uvalde County, Texas, which borders Zavala County, where the first US confirmations were reported, and a June 30 dog case in Pecos County, Texas, that has already been moved to inactive status. Both Uvalde and Pecos are new counties for confirmed NWS cases, expanding the geographic footprint even as some individual animal cases are being resolved.

The distinction between active and inactive is important. APHIS defines active animal cases as those requiring ongoing mitigation, including treatment and wound management, while inactive cases are those where mitigation is no longer required because the animal recovered or appropriate steps were taken to prevent spread. APHIS also cautions that an inactive individual animal case does not necessarily mean an infested zone has been released. That means the headline number of active cases can improve even as state and federal response zones remain in place.

The market and livestock-sector takeaway is that this remains a containment-and-eradication fight, not a short-lived case-management event. The fact that more cases are being moved to inactive status is encouraging because it shows response teams are finding, treating and closing out individual infestations. But the appearance of new counties keeps the risk map moving and reinforces why producers, veterinarians and state animal health officials remain focused on surveillance, wound checks, movement controls and rapid reporting.

Texas’ response footprint is already broader than the case count alone suggests. The Texas Animal Health Commission says quarantine measures are in place for parts of multiple Texas counties, and warm-blooded animals in affected zones cannot move out without prior authorization and inspection. TAHC also lists Uvalde County among recent executive director orders, underscoring how quickly state restrictions are being adjusted as detections and risk zones shift.

The larger strategic point is that sterile fly release remains the central tool for pushing the pest back. Texas officials note that eradication relies on releasing sterilized male flies that mate with wild females, producing nonviable eggs and reducing the population over successive life cycles. That process has a proven history, but it takes time, scale and persistent coverage, especially when detections are spread across a wider area.

For cattle producers, the practical message is vigilance rather than panic. Inactive cases are a positive sign that individual infections can be resolved, but new county confirmations show the outbreak is still dynamic. Until sterile fly releases, surveillance and movement controls start shrinking the footprint rather than merely keeping pace with it, the NWS threat will remain a live animal-health and cattle-market risk.

USDA announces plan to aid small US beef processors

In a move to shore up a thinning middle market for American cattle, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Tuesday announced the Strengthening Processing for US Ranchers (SPUR) program. The initiative will deploy up to $500 million in payments to eligible beef processing plants, aiming to protect the independent infrastructure ranchers rely on as the national cattle herd continues to hover at historic lows. “America’s ranchers deserve a competitive marketplace that rewards their hard work,” Rollins said, noting tight cattle supplies, foreign ownership of major packers and the reemergence of the New World screwworm have created a “perfect storm” of market pressure. The program specifically targets independent and regional plants. By providing financial stability to these mid-sized entities, the USDA hopes to ensure that as the herd eventually enters a rebuilding phase, the processing capacity is still there to handle the volume.

CME to introduce beef-trim futures contracts

CME Group Tuesday announced plans to launch two types of beef trim futures contracts, which the exchange operator contends will help the agriculture industry manage risk associated with the key ingredient in producing hamburgers. Trading is expected to start on July 20, pending regulatory review. The financially settled 90% and 50% lean beef trim futures and options contracts track products used to produce high-volume ground beef. In the physical market, 90% and 50% represent the lean percentages for beef trim relative to the fat.

Mexico’s pork offal curbs keep costing US exporters

Partial reopening has eased the immediate disruption, but Iowa and Texas restrictions and source-verification hurdles continue to pressure a high-value trade channel 

Mexico’s restrictions on US pork offal remain a costly problem for the US pork industry even after some shipments resumed. The initial pseudorabies-related closure lasted more than a month and, according to US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) estimates, cost exporters roughly $7 million per week. The trade impact is narrower now, but not gone: product sourced from Iowa and Texas remains restricted, while source-verification requirements are complicating shipments from other states.

The issue is important because offal and variety meats are not a marginal product in Mexico. They are central to widely consumed foods such as tacos, carnitas and other affordable dishes, and US suppliers have spent years building reliable demand for cuts that often have less value in the domestic market. That makes Mexico’s restrictions a two-sided problem: US exporters lose sales and carcass value, while Mexican retailers, restaurants and consumers face tighter supplies and higher prices.

USMEF’s Rigoberto Treviño says the shortage has already pushed some prices sharply higher, with pork uterus among the products that have reportedly doubled in cost. That is a warning sign for exporters because prolonged shortages can change buying habits. If Mexican restaurants and retailers are forced to adjust menus, reduce offerings or source from alternative suppliers, the US could lose some of the market development gains it has made through programs such as Cantina Vibes and chef-training initiatives.

The animal-health argument for maintaining the restrictions appears to be weakening. USDA has said the pseudorabies detection does not pose a food-safety risk, and USMEF says the World Organization for Animal Health has certified the Iowa event as isolated and contained. That shifts the issue from disease control toward trade administration: how quickly US and Mexican officials can translate that finding into updated import rules, clearer documentation and restored confidence at the border.

The longer the remaining restrictions stay in place, the greater the risk that a temporary animal-health response becomes a broader commercial setback. For US pork producers, offal exports help maximize whole-carcass value. For Mexico, US offal supplies support affordable foodservice demand. Restoring full access would therefore matter not only for exporters, but also for Mexican buyers who rely on consistent US supply to keep prices and menus stable. 

Brazil races to preserve EU beef access

New antimicrobial certification may reopen a pathway to Brussels, but with no farms certified yet and a Sept. 3 deadline looming, trade disruption remains a real risk

Brazil’s new certification protocol is less a routine sanitary update than an emergency market-access tool. The European Union’s coming antimicrobial import requirements threaten to remove Brazil from the approved list for animal products unless exporters can document compliance through the animal’s lifetime. The European Commission says the new rules bar antimicrobials used for growth or yield purposes and antimicrobials reserved for human infections, with import rules applying from Sept. 3, 2026.

Brazil’s response is the Certification Protocol for Cattle Free from the Use of Antimicrobial Medicines, formalized May 29. Participation is technically voluntary, but for cattle producers wanting access to the EU market, it becomes a commercial requirement. Producers will need an accredited certifier, an adhesion agreement, sanitary and nutritional plans, farm inspection and records showing control over prohibited medicines throughout the production chain. Certification can be issued within seven days after review and inspection, but the key weakness is timing: despite the approaching deadline, reports indicate no properties have yet been certified under the new system.

That makes the protocol a necessary step, but not necessarily enough to avoid a near-term interruption. Genial Investment's’ assessment is that the protocol creates the legal and operational conditions for a gradual restart, but the short runway and absence of certified farms mean exports could still be disrupted after Sept. 3 as packers and producers realign supply chains.

The commercial stakes are meaningful even if the EU is not Brazil’s dominant beef outlet. Brazil shipped 2,722 TEUs of beef to the EU from January through April 2026, up 28.45% from a year earlier. That growth makes the timing especially awkward: Brazil is trying to defend a rising EU trade flow just as Brussels is tightening sanitary documentation and traceability expectations.

The biggest operational obstacle appears to be monensin, widely used in feedlot cattle diets to improve performance. If cattle headed to Europe must be segregated from animals receiving such products, the burden shifts to ranchers, feedlots, nutritionists, certifiers and slaughter plants to maintain auditable, lifetime traceability. That raises costs and could narrow the pool of EU-eligible cattle, at least initially.

The broader significance is that the EU is exporting its livestock-production standards through market access rules. Brazil can still compete, but it must now prove compliance animal by animal and farm by farm rather than relying only on national-level assurances. For Brazilian packers, the risk is less a permanent loss of the EU market than a period of uncertainty, slower shipments and possible price discounts for cattle that cannot be documented. For EU buyers, the rule may tighten available Brazilian supply and support premiums for certified beef, while competitors with established traceability systems could gain an opening if Brazil’s rollout is slow.

Metapa fly plant gives US, Mexico needed weapon against Screwworm, but full containment still depends on speed

Rollins says USDA has invested $1.3 billion, expanded its screwworm workforce by 1,000% and opened the Chiapas facility as part of a broader five-point plan to protect US ranchers

The US and Mexico opened the sterile New World screwworm fly production facility in Metapa, Chiapas, on Saturday, marking the most significant near-term capacity gain yet in the fight to keep the flesh-eating parasite from spreading deeper into Mexico and the United States. The facility, located near Mexico’s southern border, is designed to produce sterile flies that can be released to mate with wild flies, interrupt reproduction and gradually suppress the pest. Reuters reported the plant is expected to produce up to 100 million sterile flies per week, while experts cautioned that even this added capacity may not be enough by itself to fully eradicate the pest. 

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins used the opening to frame the facility as both a scientific milestone and proof that the Trump administration’s screwworm strategy has moved from planning to execution. At the ceremony, she said, “Our countries have beaten this before,” and added, “We will beat the New World screwworm again, sooner than anyone would have thought,” according to Reuters.

Rollins went further in a post on X (link), saying the opening was tied directly to the administration’s earlier response plan. “On June 18th of last year, our Trump USDA launched a bold 5-point action plan to defeat New World screwworm and protect our great American ranchers,” she wrote. USDA’s June 18, 2025, announcement did launch a “sweeping five-pronged plan” to detect, control and eliminate New World screwworm, including the opening of a South Texas sterile fly dispersal facility and investments in additional production capacity.

Rollins said the pest’s northward movement had been predictable and dangerous. In her X post, she wrote that New World screwworm had been “fully eradicated from the United States” since 1966, then “breached the Darien Gap in 2021, through Central America in 2022, and made its way northward and into Mexico through 2023 and 2024.” She said “all models showed it reaching the US by Summer 2025.” That point is central to USDA’s defense of its response: the agency argues that border closures, Mexico-based staffing and production investments bought time for the US cattle sector before the pest reached domestic animals.

USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report shows smaller US herd than expected

USDA’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report released Thursday afternoon showed the US hog herd at 73.664 million head as of June 1, down 33,000 head, or 0.04%, from a year ago and 696,000 head less than the average pre-report guess. Market hog inventories rose 36,000 head, or 0.1%, while the breeding herd shrank 1.2% from a year ago. The spring pig crop was up 8,000 head, virtually flat, despite a 1% reduction in farrowings thanks to a 1% rise in pigs per litter to a record 11.87 head. Producers indicated they intend to farrow 2.2% fewer sows than a year ago. Fall farrowing intentions are down 0.6%. Slaughter is pegged to run marginally above year-ago through summer then decline around 0.5% in the fall.

USDA Cold Storage report: US beef stocks down, pork up

Thursday afternoon’s USDA’s Cold Storage report showed frozen US beef and pork stocks saw much smaller declines relative to their seasonal averages in May, implying reduced demand, particularly given lighter cattle and hog slaughter levels last month. US beef stocks at the end of May totaled 403.4 million pounds, down 2 million pounds from the previous month. The five-year seasonal average decline is 18 million pounds. US pork stocks totaled 451.9 million pounds, up 900,000 pounds from April. The five-year average shows a 7.9 million-pound decline during the month.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/26) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.6500. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.5470 (-0.0368). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4800 and 40# blocks at $1.4200. The weekly average for barrels is $1.4710 (+0.0410) and blocks $1.4210 (-0.0421). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.5975. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.5935 (-0.0790). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6850. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6810 (-0.0021). 

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders report mixed domestic butter demand throughout the country this week. Export butter demand varies from steady to strong. Although milk production is generally lightening, spot cream loads are available. Demand from butter makers is not heavy, and contractual volumes are supplying much of their cream needs. Butter production schedules are strong. Butter manufacturers describe inventories as balanced or building. Spot loads of butter are available. Bulk butter overages range from 2 below to 5 above market across all regions. 

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: East region cheese markets remain steady as plants run full schedules on adequate milk. Retail branded sales are soft, but bulk demand is rising, much of it moving to the Midwest for value-focused products. NDPSR trends show higher volumes at lower prices. Central region milk output is strong, with steady cheese demand and active holiday-driven purchases. International interest is steady, with consistent movement to Mexico. West region cheese production is steady. Seasonal milk declines persist but still support Class III needs. Demand is steady, with retail stronger than food service. Bulk and export interest is slow. Inventories are growing slightly but may tighten as milk supplies drop. 

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Farm milk production is mixed this week. The East, Southeast and West regions are experiencing seasonal declines in milk volumes, while Midwest volumes are steady. Class I production is lighter in most regions except the Northeast, where some facilities are pulling larger volumes of milk due to increased demand. Class II production is strong ahead of the upcoming holiday. Ice cream makers continue to pull large volumes of cream. Class III production is steady. Cheese makers are able to find spot volumes of milk as needed. Spot prices of Class III milk range from $4.5-under to $1.5 over Class. Demand for Class IV is softer this week. Some facilities are buying spot loads of cream for butter churns, but many are taking in contracted volumes. Condensed skim demand is high, and many buyers are having difficulty securing spot volumes. Condensed skim continues to sell over Class pricing. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.15 – 1.55 in the East; 1.15 – 1.35 in the Midwest; 1.00 – 1.24 in the West. 

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk prices were steady in the West for high heat products and steady to lower elsewhere. The largest declines occurred in low/medium heat prices, including the full mostly range in the Central and East regions and the bottom of the mostly range in the West. Dry buttermilk prices were steady at the top of the range in the Central and East regions but declined in all other areas. Dry whey prices were mixed, with Central region prices steady throughout the series with a slight increase at the low end of the mostly range. Prices in the West were lower across the board, while the East saw a small uptick at the bottom of the range and steady pricing at the top. Lactose prices moved higher at the top of the range while holding steady throughout the remainder of the series. Whey protein concentrate (WPC) 34% prices were unchanged within the price range, though the mostly range strengthened at both ends. Dry whole milk prices decreased at both ends of the range. Acid casein prices were unchanged, while rennet casein held steady at the low end of the range and increased significantly at the top. 

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Transition to Organic Partnership Program (TOPP) was formed through cooperative agreements between the USDA and non-profit organizations to provide technical assistance and support for transitioning and existing organic farmers. A calendar of events held by partner organizations can be found at the following link: https://www.organictransition.org/events/. During May 2026, organic whole milk utilization totaled 19.22 million pounds, down from 19.41 million pounds the previous year. The butterfat content, 3.29 percent, is up from 3.28 a year ago. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported April 2026 estimated fluid product sales. The US sale of total organic milk products was 2,741 million pounds, down 4.0 percent from the previous year. European organic milk average pay prices for April 2026 increased in Austria, but decreased in France, Germany and Bavaria. MAY MILK PRODUCTION (NASS): Milk production in the 24 major States during May totaled 19.8 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from May 2025. April revised production, at 19.2 billion pounds, was up 2.8 percent from April 2025. The April revision represented a decrease of 1 million pounds or less than 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.