Weekly global protein digest: World food prices decline for second straight month, FAO reports
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global protein news
16 November 2025
20 minute read
By: Cattle futures traders likely to focus more on fundamentals now
The live and feeder cattle futures markets during the last half of October and into early November saw steep price downdrafts that included limit-down daily price moves. President Trump shocked cattle futures traders by proclaiming he wants lower beef prices at the meat counter and would import more beef from Argentina. When the cattle futures began to erode on that news and saw their first big down day on Oct. 22, the speculative, chart-based bears began licking their chops. The next session saw active futures contracts close locked down the daily limit. The cattle futures bears mostly kept their foot on the gas until live cattle and feeder futures markets hit multi-month lows two weeks ago. At the same time, spooked cattle futures traders were mostly standing on the sidelines.
Said Glen Ring, veteran livestock market watcher at that time: “What ultimately scares me about the current events is my experience--that when liquidation explodes in the cattle arena, logic flies out the window.” We suspect that late-October/early November selling purge in the cattle futures markets has run its course. Now that the speculative technical traders have played their hand, it’s likely cattle markets will return to trading on the overall supply and demand fundamentals in the cash cattle and beef markets--which remain firmly bullish. Consumer demand for beef remains strong, supporting boxed beef values and packer margins. Fed cattle supplies in feedlots remain historically very tight.
Spain orders nationwide poultry lockdown
Government expands containment measures as bird flu risk rises across Europe
Spain’s Agriculture Ministry on Thursday ordered an immediate nationwide lockdown of all poultry, expanding last week’s restrictions that had applied only to high-risk areas. The move comes amid a sharp rise in avian influenza cases across Europe — 139 since July — including 14 in Spain, with half detected in Castille and León.
The ministry said the new measures were prompted by “an increased risk of the disease entering Spain in the last week.” The order applies to all farms, including organic and small-scale operations, and aims to prevent contact between domestic birds and migratory species that can carry the virus.
Besides mandatory indoor confinement, Spain has banned mixing ducks and geese with other poultry, the use of untreated surface water, and the holding of bird fairs and exhibitions. The expanded lockdown is intended to curb potential transmission routes as neighboring countries also report rising outbreaks.
Brazil’s beef exports surge in November, nearly 70% above 2024 levels
Record-breaking pace continues as U.S., EU, and Chile increase purchases despite tariffs
Brazil’s beef exports have surged sharply in November, with shipments up nearly 70% compared to the same period in 2024, according to preliminary trade data for the first five business days of the month. Exporters shipped an average of 20,100 tonnes per day, versus 12,000 tonnes a year earlier, totaling 100,530 tonnes so far this month — already 44% of November 2024’s total volume of 228,130 tonnes.
The average export price reached $5.51 per kilo, just below October’s $5.54 but 13% higher year-on-year, signaling continued firm global demand. The report notes that Brazil is on track for another record-breaking year after setting all-time highs in both September and October.
Key destinations and market trends. The European Union led the increase in Brazilian beef imports in October, followed by Chile, while the United States boosted purchases for a second straight month despite maintaining an additional tariff on Brazilian beef. Although U.S. import levels remain below pre-tariff volumes, the rebound underscores strong demand amid constrained global supply.
Outlook: With solid external demand and resilient prices, Brazil’s beef sector anticipates a record finish to 2025. Industry analysts say the performance cements Brazil’s position as the world’s leading beef exporter, with further upside possible if China’s state buyers return to the market in December.
Facts and figures regarding cattle prices
A cattle industry contact details: “Cattle prices moving from $210 to $250 from July through September was 85% due to government policies (tariffs with Brazil and Mexican border being closed) not industry manipulation of prices. If the Trump administration wants beef prices down, reopen the Mexico border and let Brazilian imports get back to business as usual. Of note: Brazilian imports is 90% trim and grinds and affects the quick service restaurants more than retail. But all ships move up and down the price ladder with the tide. No Brazil imports acts like pulling back 8% of U.S. production. Please feel free to pass that along to those in this administration that might understand this.” And extremely tight cattle supplies due to smallest cattle herd and smallest beef cow herd since 1951 are a factor, too.
Tyson’s chicken boom defies Trump’s price-fixing claims
Earnings show poultry strength as beef losses deepen amid record cattle costs
Tyson Foods’ latest earnings undercut President Trump’s accusation that U.S. meatpackers have been colluding to inflate beef prices. While Trump has called for a DOJ antitrust investigation, Tyson’s results show the opposite dynamic: packers are losing money on beef as cattle costs surge and herds shrink.
For the September quarter, Tyson reported adjusted earnings of $1.15 per share, beating Wall Street’s 84-cent forecast. Sales grew 2.2% to $13.86 billion, slightly below expectations. The standout performer was chicken, where sales climbed to $4.41 billion, up 3.7% in volume and 28% in operating profit to $457 million. Tyson credited strong demand for affordable proteins as beef prices hit record levels — $12.26 per pound, up from $10.89 a year earlier.
In contrast, Tyson’s beef business posted a $94 million operational loss, with volumes down 8.4% even as prices rose 17%. CEO Donnie King said consumers are turning toward chicken “as an affordable, high-quality protein” while high feed and cattle costs squeeze packers.
The Meat Institute’s Julie Anna Potts added that beef packers “have been operating at a loss due to a tight cattle supply and strong demand.” Live cattle futures have fallen about 6% in the past month but remain 24% higher than a year ago, leaving processors unable to offset record livestock prices.
Looking ahead, Tyson expects 2%–4% sales growth in fiscal 2026, driven largely by chicken, with adjusted operating income projected between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion.
The beef segment is forecast to post losses of $400 million to $600 million, as USDA projects a 2% decline in beef and 3% drop in pork production next year, while chicken output edges up 1%.
USCA praises renewed congressional push to reinstate mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef
Hageman and Zinke back legislation to restore transparency and support U.S. cattle producers
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) welcomed renewed momentum in Congress toward reinstating mandatory country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL) for beef, following the reintroduction of the Country-of-Origin Labeling Enforcement Act (HR 5818) by Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.). USCA also applauded Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) for joining as a co-sponsor, calling the bill a critical step in giving “power back to American cattle producers” and ensuring consumers can identify genuine U.S. beef.
USCA Labeling Committee Chair Samantha Ferrat emphasized that trust between producers and consumers “begins with straightforward, accurate product labels,” while USCA Founder Leo McDonnell underscored that MCOOL has been a “central conviction” of the group’s advocacy for nearly two decades. The association reaffirmed its commitment to work with lawmakers and industry partners to secure clear, reliable labeling for the benefit of independent producers and rural communities.
Jalisco reports 1st screwworm case as Mexico reaches 757 active outbreaks
Senasica confirms 85 new cases in one month; Chiapas, Veracruz, and Yucatán remain the most affected regions amid intensified U.S./Mexico eradication efforts
The Mexican state of Jalisco has confirmed its first case of screwworm, joining thirteen other states battling the livestock parasite, according to the National Service for Agrifood Health, Safety and Quality (Senasica). The case was detected in a feedlot in Encarnación de Díaz and promptly contained, officials said.
The Mexican state of Jalisco lies in western-central Mexico and is roughly 550–600 miles from the nearest point on the U.S. border (typically measured to Laredo, Texas, or Nogales, Arizona). Guadalajara, Jalisco’s capital, is about 600 miles (965 km) south of Laredo, Texas by road. It’s roughly 575 miles from Nogales, Arizona, and about 700 miles from El Paso, Texas. That distance places Jalisco well inland — several states north of Mexico City but still far from the U.S. border region.
As of Nov. 5, Mexico has 757 active outbreaks, up 85 from last month’s total of 672. The majority of cases are concentrated in Chiapas (264), Veracruz (165), and Yucatán (128), followed by Oaxaca (95), Tabasco (45), Campeche (29), Quintana Roo (29), and single cases in Guerrero and Jalisco.
Mexico’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader) credited swift inspection protocols for containing Jalisco’s case, which was identified during the review of a shipment of 80 cattle from southeastern Mexico. Senasica emphasized that the finding is isolated and poses no threat to Jalisco’s livestock industry.
The confirmation coincides with a binational review of the U.S./Mexico screwworm eradication campaign, where Sader Secretary Julio Berdegué Sacristán and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins assessed progress and reportedly planned actions to resume livestock exports.
By species, Senasica’s week-45 report lists 506 cases in cattle, 141 in dogs, 44 in pigs, 39 in horses, and 19 in sheep. Since the first outbreak in November 2024, Chiapas alone accounts for half of the 4,520 accumulated cases, followed by Oaxaca (1,119), Tabasco (980), Veracruz (960), and Yucatán (940).
Officials warn that the recent uptick highlights the need for continued surveillance in southeastern regions, where warm and humid conditions favor the pest’s persistence.
President Trump on Friday ordered a federal antitrust investigation into major U.S. meatpackers, alleging collusion to inflate beef prices amid record costs at supermarket meat counters.
US Justice Department investigating beef packers
The Justice Department’s antitrust division, in coordination with USDA, has begun examining whether the dominant beef processors — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef — engaged in coordinated behavior to boost profits. “Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat illegal monopolies, and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people,” Trump said on Truth Social.
In 2022, President Biden launched an initiative to allow producers to report unfair trade practices by the industry. Meatpackers have long faced criticism for being too concentrated, and have paid hundreds of millions to settle price-fixing and antitrust lawsuits.
Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed the probe on X, marking the latest in a series of federal reviews targeting consolidation in the meat industry. Together, the four companies control about 85% of U.S. beef processing.
“Ending the week with a new assignment, thank you for your attention to this matter, sir,” said DOJ antitrust head Gail Slater in a response to Trump’s announcement on social media.
Retail ground beef prices climbed roughly 12% over the past year to an all-time high, driven by tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand for protein. U.S. cattle inventories are now at their lowest level since 1951, and feed and operational costs have surged.
Meatpackers, meanwhile, have reported financial losses over the past year as they contend with higher input costs and reduced slaughter volumes.
Meat Institute issues statement on beef processing sector DOJ investigation
The Meat Institute released the following statement on President Trump’s call for a Department of Justice investigation into the beef processing sector:
“Despite high consumer prices for beef, beef packers have been losing money because the price of cattle is at record highs,” said Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts. “For more than a year, beef packers have been operating at a loss due to a tight cattle supply and strong demand.
“The beef industry is heavily regulated, and market transactions are transparent. The government’s own data from USDA confirms that the beef packing sector is experiencing catastrophic losses and experts predict this will continue into 2026.
“U.S. beef processors welcome a fact-based discussion about beef affordability and how best to meet the needs of American consumers, who are the industry’s most important stakeholders.
“Beef packers rely on cattle producers and cattle producers rely on beef packers. The entire beef value chain is strongest when supply is balanced by demand. Beef packers remain committed to ensuring safe, delicious, and nutrient dense beef remains affordable to American families who rely on its nourishment. We welcome the President and his team to visit our members' beef facilities, both large and small, to witness firsthand the pride, skill and dedication they bring to their work every single day.”
Trump weighs in on beef packers
President Trump accused “majority-foreign-owned meat packers,” including Brazil-based JBS and MBRF Global Foods, which owns National Beef, of exploiting the market. JBS shares fell 4% following his comments.
The issue revives a debate from Trump’s first term, when the Justice Dept. issued subpoenas to the major meatpackers, and echoes concerns raised under President Biden, whose administration funded smaller processors to compete with large firms. Biden and Democrats took aim at the power of major meat companies following shortages, price spikes and labor violations seen throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. As inflation raged throughout 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its efforts to blame big companies for unnecessarily driving up prices, including through antitrust efforts, but no antitrust action ever was announced.
In recent weeks, Trump has urged cattle ranchers to lower prices to ease grocery inflation — even suggesting beef imports from Argentina, a proposal that angered many ranchers and pushed feeder cattle prices down more than 10% last month.
Cattle futures have eased recently, in part as Trump’s plans to import Argentinian beef hit prices. The move in futures markets reflects expectations that the shipments could eventually boost supplies, especially as trade talks are also ongoing with Mexico (link) and Brazil. But it can take longer for bolstered supplies to translate into cheaper prices at the retail level.
Trump is also considering lifting the additional 40% tariffs on Brazilian beef and talks are expected soon with Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula and Trump met on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit (Oct. 26) and agreed their teams would “meet immediately” to advance solutions on tariffs and sanctions. Brazil is requesting that the U.S. suspend tariffs while negotiations progress. Suspension or rollback of tariffs is not guaranteed; the U.S. may tie such relief to other issues (e.g., political concerns as cited by the U.S. in its justification of the tariffs). Even if tariffs were reduced or lifted, effects on retail beef prices in the U.S. would likely be muted and delayed (due to supply-chain, processing and regulatory factors).
While ranchers have long sought action against large packers, analysts note that importing more beef is unlikely to significantly affect retail prices — highlighting the complex economics behind America’s beef supply chain.
When will US reopen border to Mexico cattle Re: Screwworm?
Some sources signal a possible phased-in reopening beginning January
President Donald Trump has made it clear he wants the U.S./Mexico border reopened to increase the supply of cattle and beef and to lower prices, according to White House contacts.
But USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins wants to make sure about the work Mexico is doing to control the New World Screwworm (NWS) and she likely wants progress on the U.S. plan for building a fly facility in Mexico.
White House contacts say analysis is being done on price/volume impacts of any border reopening.
The focus is currently on a phased reopening of border LIKELY beginning in January. Perhaps limited initially to Arizona, contacts signal, emphasizing no final decisions have been made.
World food prices decline for second straight month, FAO reports
Sugar and meat drive October drop as global supplies strengthen; record cereal output projected for 2025
World food prices fell for a second consecutive month in October, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), as ample global supplies eased pressure across key commodities.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 126.4 points in October, down from a revised 128.5 in September, marking a slight year-over-year decline and standing 21.1% below its March 2022 peak.
Sugar led the downturn, with its sub-index falling 5.3% to the lowest level since December 2020, reflecting strong production in Brazil, higher output forecasts in Thailand and India, and weaker crude oil prices.
Dairy prices slid 3.4%, driven by lower milk powder and butter values amid strong export availability from the EU and New Zealand.
Meat prices also eased 2%, ending eight months of gains, as pork and poultry prices fell, though beef prices remained firm on continued global demand. In contrast, vegetable oils rose 0.9%, reaching their highest since July 2022.
In a separate update, the FAO projected record global cereal production of 2.99 billion metric tons for 2025, up 4.4% from 2024, with record highs expected for both corn and rice.
Roosty’s: 5 proven ways to boost egg production naturally this winter
With backyard chicken ownership on the rise, practical strategies for increasing egg yield can help owners feed families and maintain flock health.
Backyard chicken keeping has surged in the US, with millions of households seeking fresher, more sustainable eggs. According to Roosty’s and the USDA, Americans eat an average of 279 eggs per person annually, and rising supermarket prices: over $3.50 per dozen in 2025, are pushing hobby farmers to optimize their flocks. Consistent egg production relies on nutrition, hydration, light exposure, and overall flock wellness, and small, data-backed adjustments can make a measurable difference.
Winter and seasonal changes further complicate laying cycles. Studies from the University of Arkansas Poultry Science indicate that cold stress and inadequate calcium intake reduce both egg quality and output. For hobby farmers, addressing these factors not only improves egg yield but also enhances hen health, immunity, and longevity. Understanding the key levers behind egg production can help backyard owners maximize returns from their flocks while keeping animals happy and healthy.
Top 5 Natural Ways to Support Laying Hens:
- Balanced Feed – 16–18% protein in layer feed supports egg size and frequency.
- Fresh Water – Hens drink up to 1 liter daily; hydration is essential for laying cycles.
- Calcium Supplements – Crushed oyster shell or specialized boosters prevent weak shells and bone depletion.
- Immune Support – Herbal and probiotic supplements improve gut health and stress resilience, supporting consistent laying.
- Parasite Management – 14–16 hours of light daily maintains laying, while regular cleaning and deworming prevent parasites from reducing productivity.
Egg production is a direct reflection of a hen’s overall health.
Small, targeted interventions can dramatically increase both yield and quality without relying on chemicals or synthetic additives.
Roosty’s recommends starting with a balanced layer feed, ideally 16–18% protein, to support both egg size and frequency. Hydration is crucial, with hens consuming up to a liter of water daily, as any disruption can delay laying cycles. I also want to stress the importance of calcium supplementation, through crushed oyster shell or specialized boosters, to prevent shell fragility and avoid hens leaching calcium from their bones.
Immune support is another key factor: probiotic and herbal supplements enhance gut health and resilience to seasonal stressors, which directly influences laying consistency. Light exposure also matters. Hens require 14–16 hours of light daily during shorter winter days to maintain production. Finally, parasite management and coop hygiene are critical, as untreated infestations and unsanitary conditions can sharply reduce egg output.
By monitoring these five key areas: feed, water, calcium, immune health, and light, backyard owners can optimize their flocks for year-round production.
The goal is a healthy, happy hen producing strong, nutrient-rich eggs consistently. Even small, proactive steps pay dividends for both egg quality and flock longevity,” says Poultry Expert Tom Ferris from Roosty’s.
Weekly USDA dairy report
BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.4750. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.4995 (-0.0805). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7000 and 40# blocks at $1.6600. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7100 (-0.1020) and blocks $1.6560 (-0.1520). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1450. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1345 (-0.0230). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7100. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7140 (0.0140).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: East region contacts report lighter domestic butter demand, while contacts elsewhere in the country report steady demand. Export demand varies from steady to strong. Some contacts note demand from international buyers is outpacing production of 82% butterfat butter. Strong milk production and fat components continue to make plenty of cream available. Cream demand from butter manufacturers is mixed. Butter churning schedules are heavily active. Salted 80% butterfat butter loads are readily available, while unsalted 80% butterfat butter loads are somewhat tight. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese markets in the East are holding steady as producers balance output with firm retail and bulk orders. Milk supplies remain readily available, and most plants report consistent production schedules. Inventories are manageable, though production is slowing slightly as processors wrap up holiday commitments. Export demand is quiet and steady.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Seasonally lower temperatures are increasing cow comfort nationwide, contributing to strong milk production numbers. Milk components remain strong, providing more cream for the market. Despite the extra cream available, inventories are tight due to the increased seasonal demand. Class I demand is strong across the nation with some contacts reporting higher demand compared to this time last year. Class II manufacturing is strong. Manufacturers are in full production of seasonal dairy products, such as eggnog, and, as a result, are drawing from available milk and cream supplies. Class III production is steady to light. Some regions are experiencing a decline in production due to lower demand. Many plants are finished producing seasonal Class III products. Spot milk is available in some regions due to planned downtime. Spot loads of Class III milk are moving at prices ranging from $2-under to $1.5-over Class, down from a year ago. Class IV production is steady. Butter manufacturers are using contract loads to meet production demand. The condensed skim market is balanced. Sales for condensed skim are lighter this week and going at flat market value. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.15 – 1.32 in the East; 1.05 – 1.27 in the Midwest; 1.00 – 1.23 in the West.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are unchanged in the Central and East for low/medium and high heat this week. In the West, prices for low/medium and high heat NDM held steady at the tops of the ranges but increased at the bottoms. Spot low/ medium heat NDM inventories are tight in the Central and East regions, but loads are available in the West. Dry buttermilk prices are unchanged at the top of the range in the Central and East regions and across the range in the West. The bottom of the Central and East dry buttermilk price range moved lower, while both ends of the mostly price series decreased in the West. Prices increased across the range for dry whole milk. Tight dry whey inventories throughout the country are contributing to higher prices in the Central and West regions, though prices are steady in the East. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices are unchanged across the range and mostly price series. Both the price range and mostly price series for lactose are holding steady, as contacts report tight inventories are limiting spot trades. Prices for both acid and rennet casein are unchanged this week.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS
EUROPE: The European Union's milk market experienced a modest contraction in 2024, settling at an estimated value of $125.7 billion. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, with the market value forecast to resume a steady upward trend and grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% through 2035. Facing fierce import competition and labor issues, Romanian dairy farms must modernize or risk failure. One farm successfully exemplified this by investing in milking robots to aggressively scale up its herd and operations. This shift proved highly effective, significantly boosting daily milk production and offering better data monitoring.
OCEANIA: Milk production data from Australia for September 2025 were recently released by Dairy Australia. These data show total September 2025 milk production was down year over year. To date, Australia's milk production in the 2025/2026 season is down from the same time period in the 2024/2025 season. Farmer shareholders of a large Oceania dairy cooperative voted to approve the sale of the cooperative's consumer-oriented businesses to a large multinational dairy company. The agreement between the cooperative and multinational dairy company was initially announced in August, and the shareholder vote is the first step towards final approval of the sale.
SOUTH AMERICA: Many South American dairy markets remain in a bearish supply phase amid seasonally robust milk production and declining farmgate milk prices. Milk production is up year over year throughout South America. Favorable temperatures and rainfall promoted healthy forage growth for pasture dominant herds to utilize, which contributed to stronger milk production and fat components for South American dairy farmers. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirms La Niña conditions, elevating dryness risk, but a neutral pattern is expected by Q1 2026.
