6 October 2025

17 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

FDA grants conditional approval for first screwworm drug in cattle

Dectomax-CA1 offers 21 days of protection against New World screwworm

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Tuesday announced its first conditional approval of a drug to treat New World screwworm infestations in cattle. The injectable treatment, branded Dectomax-CA1, not only eliminates existing infestations but also protects cattle from reinfestation for up to 21 days.

FDA Commissioner Marty Makary underscored the urgency of the decision, noting that U.S. farmers and ranchers have been calling for effective tools against the destructive parasite. “We continue to work tirelessly to complete review of other NWS products to protect multiple animal species in the U.S.,” Makary said in a statement.

Dectomax-CA1 uses the same active ingredient as the widely used antiparasitic drug Dectomax, which is already approved for cattle and swine. Because FDA had existing safety and manufacturing data on file, the agency determined that no new studies were required for the conditional approval.

The decision comes as ranchers face growing concerns about the spread of New World screwworm, a parasite that threatens livestock health and farm income. The conditional approval is expected to bridge the gap until full FDA clearance or additional treatment options become available.

NPPC urges action on China’s barriers to U.S. pork trade

Despite trade commitments, China’s restrictions threaten over $1.1 billion in U.S. pork exports

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) submitted comments to the U.S. Trade Representative outlining how China’s trade practices continue to unfairly restrict U.S. pork exports. These measures, including tariffs, subsidies, and unjustified sanitary barriers, violate China’s World Trade Organization commitments and persist despite promises made under the 2020 Phase One trade deal.

NPPC highlighted specific issues such as China’s ban on pork from plants not reapproved for export, mandatory testing for the feed additive ractopamine (despite international safety standards), and increased inspections linked to animal diseases already present in China.

With China being the third-largest value market for U.S. pork — accounting for $1.1 billion in exports and 59% of pork variety meat sales — NPPC emphasized the lack of viable alternatives and urged stronger enforcement of trade rules to protect U.S. pork producers.
steady progress on headline inflation alongside stubborn core pressures.

Mexican cattle industry pushes back on new livestock movement rules

Producers warn ivermectin mandate could delay shipments and disrupt $192M supply chain

The Mexican cattle industry is pushing back against new government measures it says could upend the flow of livestock across the country. Reuters reports that the Mexican agriculture ministry and Senasica, the federal animal and plant health agency, have circulated a document requiring cattle to be treated with the anti-parasite drug ivermectin at least 72 hours before movement. The treatment would also need to be carried out under the supervision of the International Regional Organization for Animal and Plant Health.

Industry concerns over delays. Livestock groups argue the new rules, apparently tied to efforts to contain the spread of New World Screwworm (NWS), would create substantial bottlenecks. The requirement that animals be treated and then held for three days before transport could cause shipment backlogs, especially in regions that rely on timely transfers from southern grazing areas to northern feedlots and processors.

Unnamed officials told Reuters the procedures would be “unworkable” for producers managing large herds, warning that delayed movements risk disrupting supply chains at a time when domestic and export markets are highly sensitive to delivery schedules.

AMEG sounds alarm on economic impact. The Mexican meat chamber, AMEG, issued a statement on Sept. 19 stressing the economic stakes. The group noted that south-to-north livestock movements generated $192 million in 2024 alone, cautioning that “recent measures… jeopardize the supply chain of the meat production sector.” AMEG emphasized that while the industry supports sanitary safeguards, regulations must balance disease-control priorities with the operational realities of cattle production and trade.

Balancing health and trade. The New World Screwworm, an invasive pest that feeds on warm-blooded animals, has been the focus of regional eradication efforts for decades. Authorities appear to be tightening controls amid fresh concerns about reintroduction or spread within livestock herds. But industry leaders warn that without coordination and flexibility, the policies could undermine one of Mexico’s most valuable agricultural sectors.

For now, producers are urging the government to revisit the rules and work with the industry to ensure that both animal health and economic stability are preserved.

Argentine beef exports reach 2025 high in August

Strong monthly performance lifts shipments, but volumes still unlikely to top 2024 record

Argentina’s beef exports hit their highest monthly level of 2025 in August, totaling 85,000 tonnes carcass weight equivalent (CWE), according to Valor Di Carne. The result, driven by firmer international prices, a stronger peso, and temporary tax relief, nearly matched the peaks of August and September 2024, when shipments reached 86,000 and 89,000 CWE.

Exports rose steadily from a March low of 52,000 CWE, with China leading the August surge (+3,500 tonnes), followed by the European Union (+1,600), the United States (+600), and Chile (+500). Annual comparisons also showed broad gains, with China up 60% and the EU up 20%, though declines were recorded to Mexico, Chile, and Russia.

Despite the August momentum, projections suggest Argentina will fall short of its 2024 record of 930,000 CWE, with total shipments from January–August at 536,000 CWE—12% lower than the same period last year. Over the past 12 months, exports stood at 858,000 CWE, 2% below year-ago levels.

While August’s performance brought export values within 7% of the April 2022 historic peak, analysts caution that sustaining near-record volumes through year-end remains unlikely.

Brazil repositions in regional beef trade after U.S. tariffs

Neighbors turn to Brazil to cover domestic demand as they expand exports to U.S.

The U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef has reshaped regional trade flows without sidelining Brazil’s role as a global protein supplier. While direct shipments of Brazilian beef to the U.S. collapsed — down 78% in September from a year earlier — neighboring Mercosur countries have stepped in to fill the gap.

Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay have increased their exports to the U.S., relying on Brazil to replenish their domestic markets. Paraguay’s imports of Brazilian beef surged 327% year-on-year in September, and its shipments to the U.S. rose 40%. This redistribution model has lifted cattle prices in Paraguay and Argentina well above Brazil’s, underscoring Brazil’s position as the region’s low-cost reserve supplier.

Industry leaders emphasize that this is not a case of triangulation to bypass U.S. tariffs, but rather a substitution effect: neighbors export their own beef and use competitively priced Brazilian supplies to meet local demand. Analysts say the shift could drive a 10% increase in Brazilian exports in 2025, despite the tariff shock.

As Paraguayan steer prices hit record highs and Brazil remains the cheapest major supplier, the country has cemented its role as a strategic backstop in global beef trade. Far from weakening the sector, President Trump’s tariffs have fueled a new surge in Brazilian beef exports, with September on track for record volumes and revenues.

China’s pork prices slide

Golden Week holiday boost muted as oversupply and weak demand weigh

China’s pork prices have fallen to fresh lows ahead of the Golden Week holiday, with a bleak demand outlook offering little relief to a sector already struggling with excess supply and sluggish consumption, Bloomberg reported.

Wholesale pork prices are on track to hit their lowest level in 18 months, signaling that recent government efforts to curb production have yet to stabilize the market. Despite expectations that millions of Chinese consumers will travel, shop, and dine during the eight-day holiday starting Wednesday, wholesalers and retailers have refrained from the large-scale stockpiling typically seen during this period.

Beijing has been pressing major pig producers to cut capacity to help support prices. Pork, a staple in Chinese diets, is also a key component of the consumer price index, making the industry’s weakness central to broader efforts to combat deflationary pressures. “Pork consumption improved a little in September, but hog supplies have remained ample… it will therefore be difficult for prices to rebound significantly in the fourth quarter,” Guangda Futures noted. Government data show sow herds remained elevated at 40.38 million heads in August, virtually unchanged from the prior month.

China’s most-traded pig futures continued to slide after a 3% drop on Monday. Pork prices have plunged 21% over the past year, leaving farmers with average losses of about 162 yuan ($23) per pig, Bloomberg reported. Analysts at Mysteel suggested downstream demand could gradually improve with holiday dining, but time is running short for the sector to see meaningful relief.

Trump and Lula to meet amid pressure over Brazilian beef tariffs

Lobbying from Brazil’s meat industry raises speculation about exemptions, but no U.S. policy shift yet

President Donald Trump is set to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva this week, marking a potential thaw in relations after months of escalating trade disputes. Brazilian sources indicate the possibility that the meeting could be virtual. The two leaders shared what Trump described as “excellent chemistry” during a brief exchange at the United Nations General Assembly, and both sides now see the upcoming meeting as a chance to reset ties.

While the agenda has not been publicly detailed, one of the most contentious issues looming over the talks is the fate of Brazilian beef. Earlier this year, Trump imposed sweeping 50% tariffs on a wide range of Brazilian imports, leaving beef and other agricultural products without exemptions. That decision hit Brazil’s powerful meat sector hard, with industry groups warning of export losses exceeding $1 billion in the second half of 2025.

Speculation about a possible exemption grew after reports that a co-owner of JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, held a private meeting with Trump weeks before his UN encounter with Lula. According to Reuters, the behind-the-scenes lobbying may have influenced Trump’s more conciliatory tone toward Brazil.

Still, U.S. officials and analysts caution that no policy change is guaranteed. While Trump has carved out exemptions for some Brazilian exports, beef has remained off the list, in part due to domestic political sensitivities. American ranchers and protectionist voices in Congress are likely to push back against any move to soften the tariff.

For Lula, securing relief on beef is a top priority. His government has also considered challenging the tariffs through U.S. courts or at the World Trade Organization, but a negotiated exemption would provide faster relief to Brazil’s farm sector. 

For Trump, any concession on beef could serve as a bargaining chip — traded for broader political or economic commitments from Brasília.

As of now, Brazilian beef remains fully subject to the 50% tariff. Whether the upcoming meeting produces a breakthrough or simply opens the door to longer-term negotiations remains to be seen. Exempting beef would be politically sensitive in the U.S., especially in agricultural or protectionist circles. Any exemption would likely be partial, conditional, or limited (e.g. only for certain cuts, volumes, or subject to other trade concessions). But speculation is not policy. Even if there is inclination, changing or granting exemptions to the tariff would require a formal administrative or executive action (e.g. modifying the executive order, issuing new regulations) and is not guaranteed.

Trump/USDA 5-part plan to tame egg prices faces mixed results

Supply interventions show promise, but imports and regulatory rollbacks deliver limited relief as bird flu keeps markets volatile

The Trump administration entered 2025 promising to bring relief to consumers facing record egg prices, which peaked above $6 per dozen in March. In response, USDA unveiled a five-part plan designed to bolster domestic production, loosen regulatory constraints, increase imports, accelerate vaccine development, and improve farm-level biosecurity. Eight months later, the results are uneven — illustrating both the stubbornness of food price inflation and the limits of federal action in a biologically constrained sector.

Latest USDA cold storage report details

Frozen U.S. beef supplies totaled 393.8 million lbs. at the end of August, down 4.0 million lbs. (1%) from July, but up (1.5%) from year-ago, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report that was released Friday afternoon. The report showed 393.9 million lbs. of pork in frozen storage at the end of August, down 10.7 million lbs. (2.7%) from July and 61.4 million lbs. (13.5%) from August 2024. Pork bellies declined 25% from last month and 8.5% from year-ago. Total frozen poultry supplies on August 31 were down slightly from the previous month and from year-ago. Total stocks of chickens were down 2% from the previous month but up 4% from last year. Total pounds of turkeys in freezers were up 3% from last month, but down 8% from Aug. 31, 2024.

USDA Food Price Outlook: Beef drives 2025 forecast upward

Small overall boost in food inflation, but beef costs expected to surge into 2026

USDA’s latest Food Price Outlook report highlights a familiar theme for consumers and policymakers: while overall food inflation projections are moderating, beef continues to climb at a pace that makes it the most consequential driver of higher grocery bills in 2025 and 2026.

For 2025, USDA now projects all food prices will rise 3.0%, a notch above the 2.9% forecast in August. Grocery (food at home) prices are expected to increase 2.4%, compared with the 2.2% projected last month. Restaurant (food away from home) prices remain unchanged at 3.9%.

Looking forward to 2026, USDA expects all food prices to climb 2.7%, compared with 2.2% previously. Grocery inflation is now forecast at 2.3%, nearly doubling the prior outlook of 1.2%. Restaurant prices are seen rising 3.3%, steady from the earlier forecast.

When stacked against the 20-year averages — 2.9% for all food, 3.5% for restaurants, and 2.6% for groceries — the new forecasts show 2025 all food and restaurant prices coming in above trend, while groceries fall below. By 2026, however, all three categories are expected to remain under their long-run averages.

Beef Prices at the Center of the Outlook

Beef and veal prices remain the dominant force shaping the outlook. USDA noted retail beef and veal prices in August rose for the eighth consecutive month, up 2.7% from July and nearly 14% higher year-over-year.

At the farm and wholesale levels, price pressures remain intense:

• Farm-level cattle prices climbed 2% from July to August and are now up 26.5% year-over-year.
• Wholesale beef prices are up 21.1% year-over-year, with USDA forecasting a 22.5% rise in 2025 and an additional 12% increase in 2026.

These increases were not unexpected. USDA emphasized that the contraction of the cattle herd has been widely anticipated, and the supply squeeze is now filtering through to every level of the beef market. Because beef carries outsized weight in the overall food index, its continued escalation “looms large” over the broader food price outlook.

Category Weights: Why Beef Matters So Much

The food price index is heavily influenced by how much weight each category carries in the overall basket of consumer food spending.

• Meat, poultry, and fish collectively hold a 10.8% share, behind only “other foods” at 12.8%, and just ahead of fruits and vegetables at 9.5%.
• Within this, meats account for 7%, with beef and veal alone representing 3.5%.
• By comparison, fresh fruits and vegetables make up 7.9%, cereal and bakery products 8%, and nonalcoholic beverages 6.6%.

With beef’s relative weight and its rapid price escalation, it disproportionately shapes the overall food inflation trajectory.

Other notable categories

• Eggs: USDA projects a 24.8% increase in 2025, followed by an 11.1% decline in 2026. Farm-level egg prices already dropped 22.8% from July to August 2025, offering relief signals.
• Other gains: Eggs, beef/veal, sugar/sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages are expected to grow faster than their 20-year averages in 2025.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (9/26) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.7200. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.6720 (-0.1190). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6225 and 40# blocks at $1.6250. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6310 (+0.0020) and blocks $1.6285 ( 0.0240). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1550. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1475 (N.C.). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6475. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6440 (+0.0270).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts generally report either steady or lighter domestic demand for butter. Central and West region contacts note stronger export butter demand, while East region contacts note slow activity. Cream is widely available and continues to be more affordable for Class IV manufacturers. Butter manufacturer demand for spot cream loads is mixed. Butter churning activity varies from steady to stronger. Production schedules are more focused on retail butter loads than bulk butter loads. Unsalted butter availability is somewhat tight. CME closing butter prices for September 22 through September 25 are lower compared to week 38. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese makers in the East are beginning to fill holiday orders. As a result, production is increasing in many facilities. Milk and condensed skim are available for spot purchase in the region. Export demand is also increasing, keeping cheese inventories balanced. Cheese production is steady in the Central region. Class III spot milk is available, but some manufacturers are not able to take in much additional milk over their contract loads. Domestic cheese demand is steady, and export demand is growing. In the West, cheese production varies from steady to stronger. Class III spot loads of milk are available. Export demand for cheese is rising for some producers. Domestic demand is steady. The increasing export demand, according to some producers, is keeping a floor on domestic prices.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide, milk production is growing. Northern states are seeing a larger rise in production due to increased cow comfort from lower temperatures, while milk output is increasing in southern states at a slower rate. Class I production is steady. Bottling facilities continue normal operations. Class II production is steady to stronger in each region. Extended shelf-life heavy whipping cream production is increasing to fulfill holiday orders. Class III production is steady to stronger. All regions mention an increase in cheese exports leading to strong production schedules to meet demand. Spot purchases of milk for Class III use are widely available. Class IV production is steady. Cream is widely available. Many butter manufacturers can meet declining production demands with contract loads, leaving cream plentiful on the market. Changes to cream multiples varied by region this week. Condensed skim production remains heavy in the East and steady in the West. Spot purchases of condensed skim vary from $0.25 under class to $0.16 over class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.00 – 1.30 in the East; 1.00 – 1.24 in the Midwest; 1.00 – 1.17 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In all regions, prices for low/ medium heat NDM moved lower this week. Contacts report domestic demand is declining and production is strong. Dry buttermilk prices are unchanged in the Central and East regions and at the top of the range in the West, but the top of the West region price range moved lower. Demand for dry whole milk is light and prices are declining. Dry whey price movements varied by region this week. Contacts report dry whey inventories are tight in the Central and West regions. The price range for whey protein concentrate 34% expanded, with the bottom moving lower and the top moving higher. The price range for lactose is unchanged and demand is strong. Acid and rennet casein prices also held steady this week.

EUROPE: The UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) released a summary of EU dairy markets for Q2 2025 recently which showed milk deliveries were up 0.06 percent from Q2 2024. This report notes exports were down 2.7 percent from the previous year, while imports increased, leading to greater availability of dairy products in the region during the quarter. EAST EUROPE: Ukraine recently announced temporary restrictions on imports of live animals and genetic material from Hungary after bluetongue was detected in cattle within the country in an effort to prevent the spread of the virus. Ukraine previously imposed similar restriction on animal imports from Belgium and Morocco when cases of bluetongue were detected in those countries.

OCEANIA

AUSTRALIA: Two large industry groups voiced concerns regarding proposed changes to food-safety policies in Victoria, the number one milk-producing state in Australia. Victoria's government plans to merge Dairy Food Safety Victoria, the organization currently tasked with regulating food safety in Victoria's dairy industry, with other food regulators to create a single regulatory organization by 2026. 

NEW ZEALAND: Milk production data from New Zealand for August 2025 were recently released. These data show total August 2025 production was 1.44 million metric tons, up 1.8 percent compared to a year earlier, the highest output on a tonnage basis since 2020. Export data for August 2025 were recently released for New Zealand. These data showed the value of milk powder, butter, and cheese exports in August 2025 totaled $1.13 billion, an increase of 32 percent compared to August 2024. Fresh milk and cream exports were valued at $98 million, up 21 percent year over year.

SOUTH AMERICA: Milk production in South America is seasonally strengthening. Industry sources indicate 2025 year over year milk production continues to be strong. The most recent update for Argentina reports a 10.6 percent increase for January through August 2025 milk production when compared to the previous year.