13 June 2025

13 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 15,300 MT for 2025 were up 71 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (6,100 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (3,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Taiwan (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for China (2,000 MT). Exports of 14,500 MT were up 33 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,300 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Canada (800 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 9,700 MT for 2025 were down 73 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (3,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (1,900 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT), South Korea (900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and China (700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (1,200 MT) and Honduras (600 MT). Exports of 33,800 MT were up 40 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,800 MT), Japan (5,100 MT), Colombia (4,100 MT), China (3,200 MT), and South Korea (2,500 MT).

Egg prices in the U.S. dropped 11% in May, reaching their lowest point since December

This comes as consumer demand remained weak following a period of record highs caused by bird flu outbreaks. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average retail price for a dozen grade A large eggs fell to $4.548, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Prices have now dropped about 27% from their March peak, though they remain nearly twice as high as they were a year ago.

Grocers have cautiously reduced egg prices, but demand continues to lag behind seasonal norms. USDA reports that egg consumption typically dips in summer as consumers opt for grilling meats over eggs. Meanwhile, supply concerns persist due to ongoing bird flu outbreaks, with Arizona alone reporting more than 5.5 million birds affected in commercial flocks since late May. Despite these supply risks, subdued demand has been the dominant force driving prices lower.

Brazil faces mixed global response to bird flu case

Mexico eases chicken ban, while Mauritania and Oman tighten restrictions

Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry announced Tuesday that Mexico has scaled back its ban on Brazilian chicken imports, limiting restrictions only to poultry products originating from the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. The move marks a partial reversal of Mexico’s earlier decision to suspend chicken imports from all of Brazil in response to avian influenza concerns.

At the same time, however, other countries are tightening their import controls. Mauritania has imposed a blanket ban on all Brazilian chicken, while Oman has chosen a more targeted approach, suspending only imports from Rio Grande do Sul.

The restrictions stem from Brazil’s confirmation last month of a bird flu case on a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul, prompting a wave of trade barriers from multiple countries.

Brazil is one of the world’s top poultry exporters, and the Agriculture Ministry is actively working to reassure trade partners. Still, the diverging international responses underscore the sensitivity of global meat trade to animal health outbreaks and the potential economic ripple effects.

US beef trade in April shows surge in imports, export struggles

Tariff talks, border shifts, and price pressures reshape global beef flow

U.S. beef trade in April 2025 reflected intensifying shifts in the global market, with imports surging and exports continuing to lag — trends that mirror the impact of ongoing tariff negotiations and domestic supply constraints.

According to Josh Maples of Mississippi State University Extension, “The latest beef trade numbers from USDA show a continuation of larger imports and softer exports than during 2024.” This April marked the first full month reflecting market responses to active U.S. tariff talks, with notable disruptions to both exports and live animal flows.

Export Weakness Led by China Collapse

Total beef exports for April reached 237 million pounds, down 7% from March and 9% lower than April 2024. Year-to-date, exports are trailing 2024 levels by 4%. The most dramatic shift came from China, where beef exports collapsed 68% year-over-year. While exports to Hong Kong helped cushion the blow, combined shipments to the region still dropped by 50%. In contrast, South Korea remained the top buyer, showing year-over-year growth, and Japan posted modest gains.

Import Growth Driven by Brazil, Australia

April beef imports totaled 475 million pounds, down 5% from March but a staggering 45% increase from April 2024. For the first four months of 2025, imports are up 28% year-to-date. Brazil led the surge with shipments up more than 300% from last year, followed by significant increases from Australia, Uruguay, and New Zealand. Imports from Canada fell 14%, and Mexico declined by 1%.

Live Cattle Imports Plummet as Border Tightens

Live cattle imports from Mexico dropped sharply amid growing animal health restrictions. Although some cattle crossed the southern border in April under tight controls, only 88,000 head were imported — down 59% from a year ago. Cumulative imports from Mexico for January through April totaled 192,000 head, compared to 479,000 during the same period in 2024.

“The international trade complex for beef is dynamic and responds to shifts in relative prices,” Maples emphasized, adding that tight U.S. beef supplies, strong domestic prices, and ongoing tariff discussions are key drivers reshaping the flow of beef in and out of the country.

China extends by six months its probe into EU pork imports

Beijing ties case to EV tariff talks with Brussels as tensions simmer

China announced Tuesday that it will extend its anti-dumping investigation into pork imports from the European Union by an additional six months, pushing the probe’s conclusion to Dec. 16, 2025. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce cited the “complexity” of the case as justification for the delay.

While officially framed as a routine procedural extension, the move is widely seen as retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) imposed in 2024. Analysts note that the extension comes at a critical juncture in ongoing negotiations between the EU and China, which are working toward a broader trade arrangement over EV duties. Brussels had argued that Chinese EVs were benefiting from unfair state subsidies, prompting the tariffs.

The original pork investigation — launched in response to an industry complaint — was interpreted as a targeted measure aimed at European agricultural exporters, particularly Spain, Denmark, and the Netherlands, which are among the largest suppliers of pork to China.

Trade watchers now see the pork case as a bargaining chip. “This is tit-for-tat diplomacy with ag and autos at the center,” said one Beijing-based trade policy analyst. Talks are reportedly progressing, but no final deal has been announced.

The extension underscores the high-stakes nature of the trade standoff, with billions of euros in exports on the line for both sides.

Supreme Court Holds Off on Prop 12 Cert Decision — Still Weighing Major Pork Industry Challenge

Justices discuss Iowa Pork Producers' discrimination claims at June 5 conference; no ruling yet on second review of California’s animal welfare law

The U.S. Supreme Court considered whether to hear a new challenge to California’s Proposition 12 during its June 5 private conference, but as of Monday morning, June 9, no decision has been made public. The case, Iowa Pork Producers Association v. Bonta, raises fresh constitutional concerns about whether California’s rules on animal confinement unlawfully discriminate against out-of-state pork producers.

The high court has now relisted the petition multiple times — on May 15, May 22, and again for discussion at the June 5 conference. This suggests continued interest among the justices, but not yet consensus on how — or whether — to proceed.

A New Theory: Discrimination by Design

The Iowa Pork Producers Association (IPPA) claims California’s Prop 12 gives in-state farmers an unfair economic edge by:
— Providing free certification audits through the California Department of Food and Agriculture, while forcing out-of-state producers to hire private, paid auditors;
— Giving California producers six years to comply under an earlier state law (Prop 2), while imposing a much shorter transition period on out-of-state producers.

IPPA argues this creates intentional economic discrimination, violating the Constitution’s Dormant Commerce Clause. This line of attack was not raised in the previous Prop 12 case the Supreme Court considered in 2023.

Dormant Commerce Clause and Pike Balancing in Focus

The case also seeks clarification on how to interpret fractured Supreme Court rulings. In the 2023 National Pork Producers Council v. Ross decision, the Court upheld Prop 12 in a splintered 5–4 ruling, but without a clear majority rationale. IPPA now argues that under the Marks v. United States standard, the Court’s Pike v. Bruce Church balancing framework — used to evaluate burdens on interstate commerce — should govern.

They claim the Ninth Circuit misapplied that precedent when it dismissed their suit and avoided Pike balancing altogether. Several states and industry groups have filed amicus briefs supporting review, warning of rising interstate regulatory conflicts if Prop 12 stands.

June 5: A Conference with No Answer — Yet

The June 5 Supreme Court conference came and went without a definitive ruling on the Prop 12 case. It’s possible the justices are still debating how to proceed — whether to grant full review, issue a summary ruling, or decline the case entirely.

Supreme Court watchers note that repeated relistings often indicate serious internal deliberations. The Court may be considering how far states can go in regulating the production methods of goods sold across state lines, a question with growing relevance as more states pursue state-specific climate, food, or animal welfare mandates.

Missouri probes false report about screwworm

Missouri authorities are investigating a fake press release about New World screwworm, the state’s agriculture department said on Friday. On May 27, a false press release was sent to a northwest Missouri radio station about screwworm, the Missouri Department of Agriculture said. A report on the radio station’s website pressured cattle futures before being taken offline. State officials want to determine “if this was an act with malicious intent to cause panic in agricultural markets,” the department added.

China’s May meat imports unchanged from April, down from year-ago

China imported 513,000 MT of meat in May, unchanged from the previous month but down 7.9% from last year. Through the first five months of the year, China imported 2.67 MMT of meat, down 3.9% from the same period last year.

Brazil’s May poultry exports clipped by HPAI outbreak

Brazil’s poultry exports fell 12.9% to $655 million, while volumes declined 14.4% to 363,100 MT. Trade restrictions following a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) case in mid-May weighed on exports.

Weekly USDA dairy report

BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5550. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5365 (+0.0427). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8600 and 40# blocks at $1.8575. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8545 (-0.0130) and blocks $1.9215 ( 0.0198). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2625. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2725 (-0.0094). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5800. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5675 (-0.0006).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand is steady. Demand from international buyers is strong for the most part. Domestic prices continue to be competitive compared to international prices. Cream volumes are seasonally decreasing but remain sufficient for butter manufacturers. Butter production schedules vary from steady to strong. In some cases, production managers indicate churns are running more heavily than anticipated. Bulk butter overages range from 7 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Last week's CME weekly average prices for barrel and 40-pound blocks were up from the previous week. According to some contacts, spot loads of milk for Class III are selling under Class price in the East. Retail demand for cheese is strong and increasing in some areas. Cheesemakers in the Central region say demand is strong from retail purchasers, but retail sales are somewhat muted. Export cheese demand is steady. Spot purchasers say loads of cheese are available to meet current market demands. Contacts are reporting higher Class III milk prices at the bottom of the range this week, $5-under Class, compared to $7-under last week. Cheese manufacturers in West convey spot milk loads are adequate to meet cheesemakers' demands, especially with bottling demand lightening. A few manufacturers note their spot load availability is snug, but buyers are generally finding loads to accommodate their needs. European cheese prices are contributing to domestic prices remaining competitive internationally.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production is beginning to see a seasonal decrease. The Northeast and Midwest are holding steady as they haven’t reached the hotter temperatures, but all other regions are seeing a decrease in production. So far, production is keeping up with manufacturing demands. Milk components are holding steady at the start of June. Spot milk is available to meet production demands. Class III milk prices ranged from $5-under to $1-over this week, up from $7 under on the bottom last week. Summer break started for more educational institutions, contributing to a lighter demand from bottlers. Class II manufacturing is generally steady nationally, with some areas pulling on cream supplies to increase ice cream production. Class III production is increasing in some areas with no indication of a drop off. Cheesemakers are eagerly purchasing spot loads of milk to run busy production schedules. Cream volumes are seasonally decreasing. Butter churns remain active while other commodities pull from cream supplies. Spot purchases for cream were readily available. The multiples ranges only had slight adjustments this week, mostly at the bottom of the ranges. Condensed skim milk is readily available, and demand is steady. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.10-1.27 in the East, 1.10-1.27 in the Midwest, and 1.02-1.20 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) were steady to higher in all regions this week. In the Central and East regions low/medium heat NDM production is steady, but contacts in the West say output ranges from steady to lighter. Hight heat NDM prices increased at the bottom of the ranges in all regions this week. Dry buttermilk prices increased in the Central and East regions this week, while only the bottom of West price range moved upwards. Contacts in all regions say demand for dry buttermilk is steady. Dry whole milk prices increased this week. Dry whey prices were generally steady or higher this week, but the bottom of the Central region price range moved lower this week. Demand for dry whey is strong. 34% (WPC 34%) was unchanged this week. Production of WPC 34% is limited as plant managers are focusing on WPC 80% and whey protein isolate. The tops of the lactose price range and mostly price series moved higher this week. Acid casein prices are increasing, but rennet casein prices are unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: 

WEST EUROPE: According to the Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF), statistics show a shortage of dairy replacement heifers born on farms. The UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) released data showing daily milk deliveries for the week ending May 10th, averaged 38.64 million liters, down 0.7 percent from the week prior and 0.9 percent from the same week last year. 

EAST EUROPE: Per the Russian Agricultural Ministry, 2024 Russian dairy production rose compared to the prior year. 

AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia recently released the Situation and Outlook report for June 2025. The report stated milk production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be one percent lower than the prior season's production. Dairy Australia recently released updated milk production numbers. In April 2025, milk production in Australia totaled 594.0 million liters, up 2.2 million liters (0.4 percent) from April 2024. Dairy Australia also recently released export data for Australia showing export volumes from July 2024 to March 2025. Milk exports totaled 124,126 metric tons, down 11.0 percent from the same time a year ago. 

NEW ZEALAND: Two dairy cooperatives in New Zealand recently announced their forecasted milk prices for the 2025/2026 production season. One cooperative forecasted a farmgate milk price of $10.00 per kilogram milk solids (kgMS), with a range of $8.00-$11.00/kgMS. Following Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event 381, a group in New Zealand that forecasts milk prices decreased their milk price forecast for the 2025/2026 season by 22 cents from $10.42/kgMS to $10.20/kgMS. 

SOUTH AMERICA: Stakeholders indicate 2025 milk output totals through April are up compared to the same time a year earlier. Industry sources convey more favorable cow comfort weather has contributed to better milk output. Sufficient rainfall strengthened pasture growth and availability of forage.