Weekly global protein digest: Avian influenza detections slow ahead of fall migration
6 September 2025
12 minute read
By: Meat prices buck seasonal trends after Labor Day
Supply cuts drive beef and pork prices higher despite normal demand slowdown
Meat prices are moving differently than usual as the summer grilling season winds down, according to Southern Ag Today (SAT/link). The report noted that “less production combined with good meat demand is certainly pressuring prices higher,” with supply constraints now outweighing the normal seasonal dip that follows Labor Day.
Beef: Supply drop fuels early price spike. Normally, beef values slide after mid-year as consumers pivot to fall and winter meals. But SAT reports that “weekly beef production has been down more than 10 percent in some recent weeks compared to the same week a year ago.” That tightening supply has pushed ribeye prices up more than $3 to $14.72 per pound, while tenderloins jumped from $15 to $18.65 per pound in just weeks. Even chuck cuts are rising faster than usual, hitting $6.50 per pound.
Pork: Lower production trumps seasonality. Wholesale pork prices usually peak in summer and taper off in the fall, but this year production remains below last year. SAT wrote, “It looks like more pigs per litter are not making up for fewer sows.” All pork primals are running above 2024 levels. Loins and butts are easing seasonally, but ribs, bellies, and hams have surged, underscoring pork’s volatility.
Outlook. With beef and pork both showing supply-driven strength, SAT said it will turn next to poultry, especially as Thanksgiving approaches. For now, the conclusion is clear: “tighter supplies are going to outweigh seasonal patterns this Fall.”
US EPA Imposes No Additional Wastewater Discharge Regs on Meat & Poultry Processing Facilities
In Sleepy Eye, Minnesota, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the agency’s final decision: no additional wastewater discharge regulations will be imposed on meat and poultry processing facilities. This move, part of the administration’s Powering the Great American Comeback initiative, is positioned as a measure to reduce consumer prices and alleviate burdens on American farmers—citing potential savings in the billions. Zeldin emphasized that the action would protect both human health and the environment. Link to EPA announcement.
Strong ag industry and political support:
Support from agriculture leaders. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins applauded the rollback, saying it protects small and mid-sized processors from “costly and burdensome” red tape that could have forced closures. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall added that heavy-handed regulations would have “ultimately hurt the farmers raising the meat and poultry we enjoy.”
Ag industry reaction
• Meat Institute CEO Julie Anna Potts: “This important decision ends a regulatory disaster that would have forced facilities to close, causing food prices to go up.”
• National Pork Producers Council President Duane Stateler: “EPA’s action today will save nearly 100 local meat processors and the thousands of family farmers who rely on them.”
• NCBA President Buck Wehrbein: Said the rollback helps small and regional meat processors who were already struggling with resource-intensive standards.
• National Chicken Council’s Ashley Peterson: Praised EPA for recognizing existing oversight while faulting the prior administration for a rushed rulemaking process.
• U.S. Poultry & Egg Association’s Nath Morris: Welcomed EPA’s commitment to properly evaluate future regulations.
• National Turkey Federation CEO Leslee Oden: Called the move proof that “current Clean Water Act arrangements are working for turkey processors, the environment, and local communities.”
Opposition: Environmental & public health concerns. Environmental organizations and attorneys general voiced sharp criticism of the rollback:
• Forty-five environmental, community, and animal welfare groups — including Earthjustice, Environmental Integrity Project, Food & Water Watch, Center for Biological Diversity, and Waterkeepers — warned that the EPA’s decision neglects “modern pollution controls” and fails to protect under resourced communities facing disproportionate harm from nutrient pollution (nitrogen and phosphorus). They urged stricter standards. “Slaughterhouses have spent decades polluting our nation’s waters with abandon… EPA must seize this opportunity to rein in this dirty industry by enacting the most environmentally protective regulatory option without further delay.” – Food & Water Watch
• Earthjustice and the Environmental Integrity Project filed lawsuits, arguing that the decision to refrain from updating outdated standards allows meat and poultry plants to continue polluting waterways unchecked.
• A coalition of state attorneys general, led by California’s Rob Bonta, expressed support for the originally proposed rule. They urged the EPA to adopt the strongest option offered and provide federal assistance to help facilities comply — and warned that weak standards harm environmental justice communities.
Avian influenza detections slow ahead of fall migration
Summer respite gives way to heightened risks as migratory birds move south
The current outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has impacted nearly 175 million birds and over 1,075 dairy herds since February 2022. But detections slowed this summer, with no new cases in commercial poultry and just one dairy herd infection in the past 30 days.
Bernt Nelson, an economist writing for the American Farm Bureau Federation’s Market Intel, cautioned that the lull may be temporary: “Migratory birds moving south along flyways are the most likely to spread HPAI, which survives better in cool conditions, making fall a likely time for HPAI flare-ups.” Link.
Egg prices, which surged to a record $6.22 per dozen in March, have since retreated to $3.59 as detections eased, while USDA data suggest egg inventories are recovering. Turkeys remain the second-most affected category, with more than 18 million lost since 2022, leaving the industry particularly vulnerable to another wave. Dairy herds, while experiencing lower mortality, face significant economic losses from reduced milk production, prompting USDA to distribute nearly $400 million in relief through its ELAP program.
With fall migration underway, USDA is urging poultry and dairy producers to strengthen biosecurity as the risk of new detections rises.
USDA reports on Mexico livestock industry
Mexican cattle exports to the United States remain suspended due to ongoing cases of New World Screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) (NWS). Producers are expected to increase domestic slaughter and beef production to 7.6 million head and 2.5 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE), respectively, an increase of six percent.
Beef consumption is projected to rise to 2.4 MMT CWE, a five percent increase, supported by population growth and rising demand from commercial and meat processing sectors. Imports are forecast at 300,000 metric tons (MT) CWE, a five percent increase, while exports are forecast at 350,000 MT CWE, an eleven percent increase, as greater domestic supply allows Mexico to respond to global demand.
The Mexican pig crop is forecast to increase to 21.1 million head in 2026, a two percent increase. A primary factor for the increase is investments in improved genetics and biosecurity in recent years. Slaughter and pork production are forecast to rise to 19.0 million head and 1.5 MMT CWE, respectively. Growing household and commercial demand are key contributors to increased slaughter and pork production.
Consumption is projected to rise four percent to 2.8 MMT CWE, while imports are expected to increase to1.6 MMT CWE, an increase of three percent. Meanwhile, exports are forecast at 210,000 MT CWE, a decline of 3 percent, due to lost market share to competitors in Asia.
Note: The report forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions and trade policies in place as of August 1, 2025, and assumes their continuation.
Mexico reports sharp rise in screwworm cases
53% month-over-month increase raises alarm for ranchers and U.S. officials
Mexico has reported 5,086 cases of flesh-eating screwworm in animals as of Aug. 17, marking a 53% jump from July, according to government data reviewed by Reuters. The outbreak, whch includes 649 currently active cases, has hit cattle hardest but also affected dogs, horses, and sheep. “This is absolutely concerning,” said Neal Wilkins, CEO of the East Foundation, noting that the sharp rise during extreme heat suggests the outbreak is not under control. Screwworms, which burrow into living flesh after hatching from eggs laid in wounds, can devastate livestock herds and wildlife populations.
Since emerging in 2023, the parasites have spread north from Central America into Mexico, edging closer to the U.S. border. American ranchers warn a Texas infestation could cost about $1.8 billion.
USDA will send a team to Mexico in two weeks to verify containment protocols, Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said Tuesday at the Farm Progress Show. The surge follows confirmation of a U.S. human case linked to travel from El Salvador earlier this month.
Key question: Asks one ag analyst: Are any of them North of where USDA is dropping sterile flies? The last case was 370 miles from the U.S. border. Were any of these new cases closer than that?
Brazil beef tariffs set to reshape global trade
Mexico, Australia and Argentina positioned to fill U.S. demand as Brazil seeks new markets
Higher U.S. tariffs on Brazilian beef are expected to redirect global trade flows, analysts told Reuters. With President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian beef in effect since Aug. 6, exporters anticipate increased U.S. imports from Mexico, Australia and potentially Argentina, while Brazil redirects more shipments to China and other destinations. (Brazilian beef, previously subject to a 26.4% U.S. import tax beyond quota limits, now faces an additional 50% levy.)
Brazil’s agriculture ministry said beef exports to Mexico help keep local inflation in check, though whether Mexico re-exports to the U.S. remains uncertain. Abiec data show that between Aug. 1–25, Brazil shipped 10,200 metric tons of beef to Mexico worth $58.8 million, compared with 7,800 tons to the U.S. valued at $43.6 million. Exports to both Russia and Chile also slightly exceeded U.S. volumes at 7,900 tons each.
Shipments to Mexico have been climbing rapidly. From January through July, Brazil exported 67,659 tons worth $365 million — nearly triple the level from the same period last year. That contrasts with about 46,000 tons for all of 2024 and just over 5,000 tons in 2023. Abiec noted that Brazil is seeking to expand the number of meatpacking plants eligible to supply the Mexican market. A Brazilian government delegation is in Mexico this week, with priorities including negotiating a free trade agreement and extending the “Package Against Inflation and High Prices” (Pacic) for another two years.
Some analysts say Brazil may step into markets traditionally supplied by Australia, while Japan could open to Brazilian products as U.S. supplies remain tight after its cattle herd hit historic lows.
China remains Brazil’s top beef destination.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (8/29) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.0450. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.1210 (-0.1625). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7800 and 40# blocks at $1.7750. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7810 (-0.0190) and blocks $1.7830 (-0.0325). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2600. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2570 (-0.0055). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5700. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5630 (-0.0145).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic demand for butter is mixed. Stakeholders note butter demand from international buyers is more consistent across all three regions and is generally strong. Spot cream loads are available for butter manufacturers to secure, but cream demand is mixed. Some are declining offers at current prices despite having churn capacity to use additional cream. Production schedule paces vary with the holiday weekend. Butter manufacturers are generally more focused on retail production and working to build retail inventories than on bulk butter production. Inventory reports from recent weeks show a decrease in storage holdings. Bulk butter overages range from 5 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production is steady in the Northeast with strong retail demand. Inventories remain healthy, though some contacts note slow increases. International exports are holding steady. In the Central region, Cheese production is steady to lighter, with softer retail demand and reduced food service sales compared to last year. Cheese exports are strong. In the West, Retail demand varies, and food service demand is lighter than a year ago. International interest is steady to strong.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production is seasonally low nationwide and continues to decline as the summer comes to a close. Year-over-year milk production is higher than at this time last year. Milk components are higher than anticipated, leading to larger supplies of cream. Class I bottling is increasing as educational institutions begin the fall semester. Class II demand is lighter from ice cream manufacturers. Class III production remains steady across all regions. Class III spot purchases are going from flat to $2 over Class price. Class IV production is increasing in most areas. Cream is readily available for spot sales. Many butter facilities are purchasing cream to keep churns active. Condensed skim availability is tight and demand remains heavy. Condensed skim is selling from $0.15 to $0.30 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.20 – 1.33 in the East; 1.15 – 1.36 in the Midwest; 1.14 – 1.26 in the West.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Prices for low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) increased at the top of the range in the Central and East regions, but decreased at the bottom and across the range in the West. High heat NDM prices trended lower across the country, with only the bottom of the West region range holding steady from last week. Dry buttermilk prices were generally steady, with only the top of the West region price range declining. Prices for dry whole milk fell this week across the range. Dry whey prices are mixed across the country. Animal feed whey prices are unchanged. The whey protein concentrate 34% price range shifted higher this week. The bottom of the lactose price range held steady, while prices decreased at the top. The top of the price range for acid casein is unchanged, but prices increased at the bottom and at both ends of the rennet price range.
INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: WEST EUROPE: New Zealand's Fonterra Co-operative Group is selling its global consumer and associated businesses to French dairy major Lactalis. This sale includes brands such as Mainland and Anchor butter, Kapiti ice cream and cheese, and the Anlene powdered milk supplement. EAST EUROPE: In a push to bolster its dairy exports, Ukraine is actively negotiating an increase in tariff quotas with the EU, targeting products such as condensed milk, powdered milk, and butter. Kyiv intends to deepen its agri-trade alignment with the EU and secure greater market stability for its dairy sector. June 2025 were recently released by Dairy Australia. June 2025 were recently released by Dairy Australia. These data show total June 2025 milk production was 565.1 million liters, down 31.2 million liters (5.2 percent) year over year. Milk production for Australia's 2024/2025 season (lasting July 2024 to June 2025) totaled 8,315.0 million liters, down 60.9 million liters (0.7 percent) from the prior season. NEW ZEALAND: Milk production data from New Zealand for July 2025 were recently released. These data show total July 2025 production was 312,000 metric tons, up 0.9 percent compared to a year earlier. During July 2025, total milk solids production increased by 2.2 percent from the previous year to 28.0 million kilograms. SOUTH AMERICA: Milk production is rising across South America. Milk output increased in each of the reporting countries during the months of June and July for an average of 8.2% higher output than the same reporting period last year. Demands remain mixed for skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP).
