Weekly global protein digest:

30 November 2025

19 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

USDA chief Rollins opens up on cattle markets, border shutdown, meat packers concentration

In a candid conversation with producers Jim Mundorf and Shad Sullivan, the USDA Secretary lays out her views on market turmoil, the New World screwworm border closure, packer concentration, USDA’s beef plan, and the broader fight over land, ranching, and rural America’s future 

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins sat down with cattle producers Jim Mundorf and Shad Sullivan for a special Lonesome Report podcast interview, where the trio dug into the state of the U.S. cattle industry. In a wide-ranging conversation, they tackled sharp recent market volatility, the continued closure of the Mexican border over New World screwworm, the Justice Department’s investigation into beef packer concentration, USDA’s new beef plan to rebuild capacity and support ranchers, and broader fights over private property rights, land control, and the future of FFA and rural youth..

1. Market Volatility & Producer Anxiety

Key points:

• Rollins acknowledges severe market volatility over the last ~40 days, including the steep drop in January feeder cattle futures (≈$80/cwt from the recent high).

• She provides benchmark numbers:

• Year ago: ~262
• Recent high: ~378
• Now: ~304
  → Still up ~17% year-over-year, but sharply down from the peak.

• Rollins attributes volatility to:

• Market adjustments after unusually high highs.
• Tariff-related uncertainty.
• Lean trim import dynamics.
• The Mexican border closure.
• Record domestic and global beef demand.

• She stresses that President Trump is “100% with rural America,” understands the strain, and wants to reduce volatility.

• Rollins notes that the conservative, rural base feels rattled, but insists that the administration’s loyalty to ranchers has not changed.

2. Mexican Border Closure & New World Screwworm

Key points:

• Rollins says closing the ports last spring was essential to protect the U.S. herd; screwworm could devastate livestock as it did in the 1950s–60s.

• Roughly 1 million head of cattle normally cross annually during the relevant period; the closure has hit Mexico and U.S. southern producers hard.

• Reopening is not imminent, but:

• USDA is more confident containment is improving.
• No date is set.
• When reopening happens, it will be gradual, not all eight ports at once.
• USDA expects the Arizona port to reopen first, being farthest from screwworm presence.

• Expansion of sterile-fly production:

• Edinburg, TX facility phase one = distribution only (spring 2026 target).
• Full production facility is about a year out.
• USDA exploring temporary mobile production units that can relocate to outbreak areas—announcement expected in 2–4 weeks.

• Rollins says she understands producer fears that reopening could drop markets another 10–20%, and USDA is weighing market impacts alongside biosecurity.

3. Beef Packer Concentration, DOJ Investigation & Plant Closure

Key points:

• Rollins brings her background in antitrust law and argues packer concentration is a national security issue, not just an economics issue.
• Notes four companies control 80–85% of beef packing; two are foreign-owned.
• She supports DOJ’s investigation, saying USDA will monitor closely and push for reforms.
• On the Lexington, Nebraska plant closure, she notes:
• Capacity loss (≈5,000 head/day; 3,000 jobs) adds short-term volatility.
• But nearby plants were under capacity and may absorb volume.
• USDA is exploring using the closure to create space for new local/regional processors.

• Rollins discusses:

• Movable/mobile processing units.
• Grants that help small plants modestly increase capacity (“a $60,000 grinder could take a plant from 1 head/week to 6–10”).

• Emphasizes:

“We are not against big packers; we are against centralized control.”
Expanding regional packing is central to rebuilding cattle country and reversing the loss of 150,000 ranches since 2017.

4. USDA Beef Plan: Rebuilding Capacity & Strengthening Ranchers

Key pillars highlighted:

• Opening 5 million more acres in the West for grazing; aligning USDA and DOI permitting.
• Real ‘Product of USA’ labeling for cattle born, raised, and slaughtered in the U.S.
• Incentives and grants for small/medium processors.
• Expanding access for beginning ranchers (e.g., adjusting age-of-protection programs).
• Reworking dietary guidelines & school-lunch/SNAP procurement to increase beef demand from U.S. producers.
• Integrating the Make America Healthy Again initiative with beef promotion.
• Building a pipeline of new ranchers, including veterans.
• Plan was shaped heavily by rapid, solutions-focused input from real ranchers in western roundtables.

Lean hog futures traders monitoring African Swine Fever breakout in South Korea

South Korea was on heightened alert Tuesday after authorities reported an outbreak of African Swine Fever at a pig farm in the country’s top pig-breeding region, Reuters reported. Authorities raised the national alert level to “serious” after 1,423 pigs were culled due to the outbreak at a farm in Danjin, South Chungcheong province, the report said. Authorities were on the lookout for further infections at around 140 related farms, according to South Korea’s agriculture ministry. The ministry also issued a 48-hour “standstill” order for all livestock facilities in the country in a bid to curb the risk of further spread. The report said the incident marked the sixth isolated outbreak of ASF in South Korea in 2025, but the first in the province – an area that hadn't seen a previous outbreak. South Korea was the fourth-largest importer of U.S. pork by value in 2024, according to Pork Checkoff.

China’s Beef Import Pullback Sends Ripples Through Brazil’s Meat Sector

Beijing’s targeted suspension of Brazilian beef plants fuels speculation of diverted shipments and market scrambling, though evidence points to a narrower disruption

China’s sudden slowdown exposes Brazil’s export vulnerability

A series of recent moves by China’s customs authority has reignited concerns about the stability of Brazil’s critical meat-export relationship with its largest customer. In early March, Beijing quietly suspended beef imports from seven meat plants across several countries — including three major Brazilian exporters — amid what officials described as “case complexity” linked to a sweeping safeguard investigation into beef imports.

While China did not directly explain the suspensions, trade analysts and regional farm groups cite converging pressures: a surge in domestic production, falling wholesale beef prices, and Beijing’s increasing willingness to fine-tune food imports to stabilize politically sensitive farm sectors.

For Brazil, the action hit at a precarious moment. China accounts for more than 40% of Brazil’s global beef exports, and even limited suspensions can create logistical and financial strain across the supply chain.

Of note: Beijing extended its beef import investigation to Jan. 26, 2026, as domestic supplies swell and officials weigh possible safeguard steps without provoking major suppliers.

Is Brazil “Repositioning” Meat to the U.S.?

Rumors have circulated in meat-trading circles that China is “pushing back” previously purchased Brazilian meat and that Brazilian suppliers are “scrambling” to reposition these volumes into the U.S. market. Here’s the evidence-based picture:

What’s clearly true:

• China has halted shipments from specific Brazilian plants, creating short-term surpluses and forcing exporters to seek alternative buyers.
• Brazilian beef suppliers have publicly acknowledged the need to diversify markets, especially following China’s intensifying regulatory scrutiny.
• U.S. imports of Brazilian beef have been trending higher in 2025, even under tariff and quota pressure.

What’s not confirmed:

• There is no authoritative reporting that China has rejected or returned large blocks of previously purchased Brazilian beef.
• There is no evidence of Brazil organizing a large-scale diversion of a “meat block” specifically to the United States.
• U.S. quota structures constrain Brazil’s ability to redirect Chinese-intended product into the American market.

Upshot: Some Brazilian meat is indeed being displaced by China’s regulatory actions, but the resulting market scramble appears narrower and more contained than the more dramatic rumors suggest.

China’s Domestic Priorities Drive the Shift

China isn’t targeting Brazil per se. Instead, Beijing is battling a domestic protein oversupply issue:

• Herd expansion has boosted Chinese beef production.
• Wholesale beef prices have fallen in key cities.
• Beijing faces pressure from domestic producers to adjust import volumes.

The suspension of select overseas plants — including Brazilian facilities — represents a calibrated, targeted measure, not a full-scale market closure.

Still, the message to global exporters is unmistakable: China is willing to dial imports up or down depending on domestic political and economic needs, creating sudden and unpredictable shocks for suppliers.

Brazil’s Market Options Are Limited

Although Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter, its alternatives to China aren’t simple:

• The U.S. market is highly regulated and quota restricted.
• The EU remains closed to Brazilian beef from most regions due to sanitary protocols.
• Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian markets can absorb some redirected product, but not at China’s scale.

This helps explain the heightened anxiety within Brazil’s meat industry. Even a partial loss of Chinese access can leave packers with product they must discount deeply or freeze for longer-term storage.

What It Means for the U.S.

For U.S. producers, the developments are a mixed bag:

• Brazilian beef seeking new destinations could increase competition for import-reliant U.S. buyers, particularly in the lean-trimming and processed-beef segments.
• However, quota limits constrain Brazil’s ability to flood the U.S. market.

Still, analysts warn that even modest increases in Brazilian supplies can influence U.S. wholesale beef pricing, especially at a time when U.S. cattle supplies are historically tight.

The Bottom Line

China’s targeted beef-import suspensions have undeniably disrupted Brazil’s meat export flows and prompted an urgent search for alternative buyers. But the narrative that a massive “meat block” is being pushed onto the U.S. market appears overstated.

The reality is more measured:

• China is trimming import access at the margins, responding to domestic oversupply.
• Brazil is seeking additional buyers, but redirection to the U.S. is constrained and limited.
• Global protein markets remain sensitive, and even small regulatory moves from Beijing can echo across continents.

If China broadens its suspensions — or if domestic prices in China continue to fall sharply — the scenario could escalate. But for now, the disruption is real but contained, and the U.S. market is a partial pressure valve, not a full alternative to China. Also, U.S. sales and shipments of beef to China have also dried up so it is not just Brazil they are restricting imports from. Classic indication of domestic supply issues.

USDA cattle-on-feed report leans price-friendly

Cattle futures traders last Friday afternoon got their first USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report since September 19. The agency Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024, which was very close to market expectations. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024 and less than traders expected. Net placements were 1.99 million head. Placements were the lowest for October since the series began in 1996. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 515,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 420,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 445,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 384,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 195,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.70 million head, 8 percent below the same time in 2024 and close to market expectations. Other disappearance totaled 54,000 head during October, 2 percent below 2024.
 

Tyson shuts down Lexington, Nebraska beef operations, pares back Amarillo, Texas shifts

Tyson Foods Inc. on Friday said it is ending operations at a beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska and cutting a shift at an Amarillo, Texas facility as the meat producer loses millions of dollars amid the smallest U.S. cattle herd in decades. “Consumers are paying record-high prices for beef as packers are forced to pay up to buy a shrinking amount of cattle. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has moved to boost imports from countries, including Brazil and Argentina, to help make up a domestic shortfall, but the measures have yet to bring down retail prices,” said a Bloomberg report. Tyson earlier this month said it was set to lose as much as $600 million in its beef segment in fiscal 2026, after losing $720 million over the past two years. The company on Friday said it was seeking to “right-size its beef business” by ending operations in Lexington, Nebraska, and converting the plant in Amarillo, Texas, to a single shift. About 3,200 workers will be impacted in Lexington and 1,700 in Amarillo, Tyson said and as reported by Bloomberg. One of Tyson’s biggest slaughter plants, the facility in Lexington can slaughter nearly 5,000 head of cattle per day. “To meet customer demand, production will be increased at other company beef facilities, optimizing volumes across our network,” Tyson said in the statement.

U.S. Cattlemen’s Association urges Trump to reconsider importing Argentine beef

The USCA wrote to President Trump late last week: “We recognize the global challenges at play in economic policy and international trade. However, U.S. cattlemen—who have weathered decades of adversity—should not be made the sacrifice for larger geopolitical aims. Expanding beef imports from Argentina would risk the very foundation of U.S. cattle production and the heart of rural America. U.S. producers will lose in any deal with Argentina. Today’s beef prices are not the byproduct of runaway inflation or market manipulation—they are the result of years of industry contraction, a 75-year low in the national cow herd, and steep increases in ranchers’ input costs. For the first time in years, cattle producers are finally earning prices that reflect actual costs of production—a long-overdue correction, not an unintended sign of distress.” The letter continued: “In addition, U.S. beef remains one of the safest, highest-quality proteins—and best values—available to American families. Even with recent increases, the time required for an average American to afford a pound of ground beef is unchanged since the 1980s: about 12 minutes of work, a benchmark of affordability few foods can claim. Dollar for dollar, nothing surpasses U.S. beef for nutrition, safety, or consumer trust; today’s families can choose quality beef for about the price of a $5 daily latte. In times of economic downturn, U.S. consumers have proven beef demand is inelastic – it stands the test of time and wallets. In fact, current U.S. beef demand is at a 40-year high, reflecting the enduring place of beef at the center of the American table.”

China letting U.S. beef plant credentials expire

Lane said China’s failure to renew U.S. beef plant export credentials — and the lack of U.S. action to resolve it — is costing producers dearly. He quantified the loss at “$165 a head, give or take, in value to producers.”

Despite sustained industry pressure, Lane said policymakers have been unresponsive:

“We have not heard anything on that front… the silence… has been deafening.”

“We were told… it was in the mix and part of the discussion, but clearly they weren’t able to make any headroom on that.”

Lane urged the administration to make beef access a priority in its upcoming annual trade reviews:

“We’re advocating that this be part of the conversation immediately.”

Screwworm threat: “A tough situation” requiring urgency

Lane also addressed the new world screwworm threat, noting significant pressure on USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, while praising her approach: “I think the Secretary has done well… making it clear to [Mexico] repeatedly what it is the U.S. side needs to see.”

Key points from Lane’s briefing include:

Verification in Mexico. Lane stressed the need for transparency and proof of Mexican eradication efforts: 

• “We want, we need to see them show their work.”
• USDA is “sending teams down there… to verify what the Mexican government is saying.”

Temporary breather, but no relief. Cooler weather has slowed fly production, giving “a little bit of a breather,” he said — but warned the U.S. must prepare for the possibility the pest crosses into domestic herds.

When will cross-border cattle resume? Lane suggested there is no formal checklist but rather:

• “One of those ‘you’ll know it when you see it’ deals.”

Infrastructure gap: Sterile fly facility needed now. Lane issued a blunt assessment of the most urgent biosecurity need:

• “We need to see that facility going vertical… We cannot wait on that any longer.”

He emphasized that while a dispersal facility is underway, the sterile fly production facility must advance immediately to protect cattle herds and maintain supply chains.

Overall, Lane highlighted the cattle industry’s adaptability — but warned that decisive action is required from U.S. policymakers to restore lost export value and to shore up defenses against a potentially devastating livestock pest.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (11/21) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.4775. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.5020 (-0.0255). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.5825 and 40# blocks at $1.5500. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6050 (-0.0555) and blocks $1.5580 (-0.0300). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1825. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1850 (+0.0225). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7600. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7790 (+0.0270). 

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: West region contacts report domestic butter demand varies from steady to stronger. Central and East region contacts report domestic butter demand is stronger. Export demand varies from steady to stronger throughout the country. US produced 82 percent butterfat butter remains competitive on the international market. Cream volumes vary from more available to somewhat tighter. West and Central region butter manufacturers report at or near capacity production schedules. East region butter manufacturers report butter production varies from steady to light. Bulk butter overages range from 3 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions. 

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Eastern cheese production remains steady as plants work through seasonal demand and manage inventories closely. Export interest has picked up this week as lower CME pricing draws attention from international buyers. Central region plants report active schedules with milk supplies holding steady. Some processors note additional loads being pulled into bottling rather than cheese vats. Seasonal demand is boosting retail activity, while barrel supplies remain tight. Export demand is helping keep product moving though the market. Western manufacturers report steady production supported by sufficient milk volumes from contracts and spot loads. Domestic demand ranges from moderate to steady. Export demand remains steady to strong. 

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide, milk volumes are seasonally strong. Some areas of the country are seeing a recent increase in volume as temperatures decline. Milk components, specifically fat, are higher this year than last. Class I demand is strong in all regions. Spot purchases of milk for bottling are occurring in each region, but the Southeast is purchasing milk from other regions to supplement the increased demand. Class II demand is strong. Consumer demand for seasonal dairy products and holiday recipe ingredients, such as heavy whipping cream, is keeping manufacturers busy. Spot sales for Class III are more frequent. Contacts mentioned a higher demand from cheese makers. Expected downtime next week for the holiday will contribute to increased spot sales for milk and cream. Price ranges for Class III spot sales range from $1.5 under to $1.5 over Class. Class IV demand varies from steady to stronger. Cream demand is higher in every region and spot cream availability is tighter. Condensed skim supply is tighter this week. Contacts are anticipating a higher availability next week due to planned downtime. Condensed skim price ranges from flat to $0.20 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.15 – 1.35 in the East; 1.06 – 1.31 in the Midwest; 1.00 – 1.21 in the West. 

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Prices for low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) in the Central and East regions were down slightly, but prices were up for the entire price series in the West. The top and bottom of the high heat NDM price range increased for all regions. The Central and East dry buttermilk price range was unchanged. Buttermilk prices in the West were down slightly at the top of both the price range and the mostly range series. Dry whey prices increased across the price range in the Central and Northeast and at the top in the West. Downward movement occurred at the bottom of the West price series. The lactose price series saw no changes. The top end of whey protein concentrate 34% price range saw a sharp decline, while the mostly range remains fixed. Dry whole milk saw increases at both ends of the range. Acid and rennet casein prices are static.

 INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: WEST EUROPE: European dairy groups continue to push for deeper structural reforms as producers say margins remain tight and operational costs are not easing. Contacts report more farms are leaving the sector, raising concerns about long-term production capacity. Sentiment suggests continued volatility and further consolidation across the market. EAST EUROPE: Ukrainian dairy groups warn that proposed deep cuts to raw milk prices would push many farms out of production at a time when the sector is already strained by weak demand, war disruptions, and limited export competitiveness. New EU trade rules are bringing in cheaper European butter and cheese, further pressuring local margins. 

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: Dairy Australia recently released export data for Australia showing milk export volumes from July - September 2025 totaled 40,077 metric tons, an increase of 12.3 percent compared to export volume totals from July - September 2024. Dairy Australia recently released data on packaged milk sales. In August 2025, milk sales totaled 201.8 million liters, down 2.4 million liters (down 1.2 percent) year over year. 

NEW ZEALAND: Milk production data from New Zealand for October 2025 were recently released. These data show total October 2025 production was 3.13 million metric tons, up 1.7 percent compared to a year earlier. During October 2025, total milk solids production increased by 2.8 percent from the previous year to 268.7 million kilograms. On a milk solids basis, this was the third largest month on record for New Zealand milk collections 

SOUTH AMERICA: Latin America's Southern Cone dairy sector (Argentina, Chile, Uruguay) is in a clear expansion phase, with milk deliveries running well ahead of last year's levels. Brazil is also seeing stronger collections. Production remains comfortably above year-earlier levels, but farm-gate milk prices are under pressure. 

SEPTEMBER MILK SALES (FMMO): 3.6 billion pounds of packaged fluid milk products were shipped by milk handlers in September 2025. This was 2.5 percent higher than a year earlier. Estimated sales of total conventional fluid milk products increased 2.7 percent from September 2024 and estimated sales of total organic fluid milk products increased 0.5 percent from a year earlier. 

DECEMBER ADVANCED CLASS PRICES (NASS): The base Class I price for December 2025 is $18.21 per cwt, an increase of $1.46 per cwt when compared to November 2025. A Class I differential for each order's principle pricing point (county) is added to the base price to determine the Class I Price. Class I Extended Shelf Life (ESL) Adjustment was -$0.91 per hundredweight for the month of December 2025. The price per hundredweight decreased $0.92 from the previous month. Class II Price Information: For December 2025, the advanced Class IV skim milk pricing factor is $8.49 per cwt, the Class II skim milk price is $9.19 per cwt, and the Class II nonfat solids price is $0.9882 per pound. Product Price Averages: The two-week product price averages for December 2025 are: butter $1.6239, nonfat dry milk $1.1611, cheese $1.7920, and dry whey $0.6230. 

NOVEMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES: The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised from the previous report. Higher milk cow inventories and robust milk per cow through the third quarter of 2025 were reported in the recent Milk Production report. The milk production forecast for 2026 is also raised, as the higher inventories and increased productivity rates are expected to carry into next year. The all milk price forecast for 2025 is lowered to $21.05 per cwt. 

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: In the week 47 retail dairy survey, conventional ads are down 13 percent and organic ads are down 68 percent. Cheese is the most advertised conventional commodity and total ads are up 8 percent. The most advertised organic commodity, ice cream, appeared in 33 percent fewer ads. The organic premium for a half gallon container of milk this week is $3.24.