19 September 2025

11 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

Weekly US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 15,800 MT for 2025 were up 31 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (8,000 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Indonesia (1,600 MT, including 200 MT - late), Canada (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT), were offset by reductions for the United Kingdom (100 MT). Net sales of 400 MT for 2026 were for Japan. Exports of 13,200 MT were up 52 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,000 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,000 MT). Late Reporting: For 2025, net sales totaling 352 MT of beef were reported late for Indonesia (218 MT) and the Philippines (134 MT). Exports of 352 MT of beef were reported late to Indonesia (218 MT) and the Philippines (134 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 22,000 MT for 2025 were up 27 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (6,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (6,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (3,000 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT). Exports of 29,400 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,500 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,800 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).

American farmers are feeling the pain of US trade policies

U.S. agricultural communities that once saw Donald Trump as a reliable champion are increasingly feeling the sting of his aggressive trade policies. Farmers, who overwhelmingly supported Trump in past elections, are now caught in the crossfire of escalating tariff battles that have revived painful memories of the first trade war with China earlier in his presidency.

Producers of soybeans, corn, pork, and dairy have been hit particularly hard as foreign buyers, notably in China and the European Union, scale back purchases or impose retaliatory tariffs. While Trump argues that the tariffs are essential to protect U.S. manufacturing and reduce dependence on adversarial nations, the immediate result for farmers has been falling export demand, rising input costs, and thinning margins. “We backed him because we thought he understood rural America,” said an Iowa soybean grower. “But now we’re on the front lines again — and it’s killing our markets.”

Mounting economic pressure in farm country. Commodity prices have softened even as production costs remain high, leaving many producers struggling to break even. Farm groups warn that the financial stress could force more operations to rely on emergency credit or government aid, repeating the bailout cycles of the last trade war.

Rural banks are also sounding alarms about deteriorating farm balance sheets, especially as rising interest rates over recent years have made refinancing harder. Young farmers and smaller operations are particularly vulnerable, with many reporting they are delaying equipment purchases or cutting back on hired labor.

Political risk on the horizon. If the trade tensions persist into the 2026 election cycle, they could upend traditional political loyalties in farm country. Farmers who once viewed Trump as their strongest advocate are increasingly questioning whether his tariff-centric strategy is worth the price.

Several agricultural organizations have quietly urged the administration to pursue negotiated market access agreements instead of relying on punitive tariffs. Whether those concerns gain traction in Washington — or translate into political fallout — may hinge on how quickly the trade war’s economic damage spreads beyond the farm gate into rural communities at large.

USDA reports on Argentina livestock trade

USDA says Argentina is set to remain a powerhouse in global beef trade, with 2026 exports forecast at 830,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE), the second highest on record. Robust international prices and a more competitive peso are breathing new life into packer margins. China will continue to dominate as the leading market, while shipments to the United States and European Union strengthen. Despite booming exports, beef production is expected to remain stagnant for a fifth straight year.

Japan becomes top buyer of Brazilian eggs

U.S. imports tumble under new tariffs as Brazil’s egg exports cool

Japan overtook the United States as the largest buyer of Brazilian eggs in August, according to Secex data analyzed by Cepea at the University of São Paulo. U.S. purchases plunged 60% from July after new tariffs, while Japan’s imports rose 29% to 578 tonnes.

Overall Brazilian egg exports fell for a second consecutive month in August after a 20% drop in July, though year-to-date shipments remain up 192% from 2024. Domestically, prices rebounded in August after midyear lows, supported by post-holiday demand, even as the market continues recovering from earlier avian influenza-related trade restrictions.

USDA Confirms HPAI in Nebraska dairy herd

First cattle case in state emerges as turkey flock infections climb in Dakotas

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) on Monday confirmed the first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a Nebraska dairy herd, marking the state’s first known cattle infection.

Since March 2024, HPAI has been confirmed in dairy cattle across 17 states, though APHIS emphasized that only a small number of cases have surfaced this year and the new detection does not alter its HPAI response strategy. Officials stressed there are no consumer health or food safety concerns.

The confirmation comes as HPAI infections have risen in commercial turkey operations, with eight newly reported flocks: two commercial farms and one backyard flock in North Dakota totaling 101,500 birds, and six commercial flocks plus one backyard flock in South Dakota totaling 296,550 birds.

The uptick coincides with the onset of southward wild bird migration, potentially signaling an earlier-than-usual seasonal rise in cases that typically accelerate in the fourth quarter.

US beef poised to become the new eggs

Tariffs on Brazil and shrinking U.S. herd drive shortage fears

U.S. beef prices are climbing toward record highs as tight domestic cattle supplies collide with new tariffs choking off Brazilian imports. Weekly cattle slaughter has dropped nearly 9% from a year ago, reflecting the smallest U.S. herd in decades and a recent ban on purchases from Mexico over sanitary concerns.

Imports from Brazil — long a key supplier of lean trimmings for U.S. ground beef — have nearly doubled this year but are now stalling after President Trump slapped a higher tariff in August, pushing the effective duty to 76.4%. Inventories stockpiled ahead of the tariffs are expected to run out within months, amplifying price pressure as U.S. consumers face the prospect of beef becoming “the egg problem” of the Biden administration, according to PMI Foods’ Darin Parker.

Australia, which faces only a 10% tariff, has boosted shipments 22% this year and is poised to benefit, while Uruguay and Argentina also expand sales despite higher duties. Still, analysts warn the supply won’t be enough to cover U.S. demand, with Parker cautioning: “The only person that really gets damaged in all of this is the U.S. consumer.”

China poultry production up next year: USDA

USDA reports China’s chicken meat production and consumption will grow modestly in 2026, though market saturation from 2025 is likely to persist for some time.. Imports remain limited by HPAI-related restrictions on Brazil and parts of the United States, as well as retaliatory tariffs. U.S. chicken paws continue to hold a niche market, though growth is constrained by inspection delays and other non-tariff measures.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (9/12) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.8600. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.9565 (-0.0591). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6125 and 40# blocks at $1.6150. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6605 (-0.0901) and blocks $1.6535 (-0.0840). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1650. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1890 (-0.0466). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5925. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5875 (+0.0194).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand is mixed, while export demand varies from steady to strong. Some stakeholders note increasing fat components, which is helping to provide plenty of cream for buyers. Spot cream demand from butter manufacturers is mixed. Cream loads are available at lower multiples than last week. Aside from unplanned downtime or scheduled replacement of churn equipment, butter production schedules are stronger, but not yet churning at full capacity. As of September 11, 2025, the CME closing price for butter continued a bearish trend and fell to $1.9275. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: In the East, cheese production is holding firm as cooler weather brings more milk to market. Cheesemakers in the Central and East regions note steady schedules. Varietal cheese offerings are widely available, while domestic demand is described as flat. Food service activity is lighter than a year ago, but most buyers indicate loads are available to meet near-term coverage. Export activity is uneven, with competition among global sellers adding pressure. Market tones are softening alongside weaker CME cheese values.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide milk production is beginning to seasonally change. The Northern states are experiencing cooler temperatures, contributing to increased cow comfort and higher production. Southern states have yet to experience this increase; however, contacts state there is a year-over-year increase in production. Milk components remain high, providing steady amounts of cream to the market. Class I bottling is increasing in some regions and steady in other areas, with a steady demand for bottled milk. Class II production is steady. Some ice cream producers are still taking spot loads of cream and condensed skim. Class III production is steady in most regions but lighter in the Northeast. Unscheduled downtime is contributing to lighter production schedules. Spot load activity is light in the Midwest due to low availability. Class III spot pricing ranged from flat to $2.00 over Class price. Class IV production is active. Butter makers are increasing production schedules to prepare for the upcoming holiday season. Spot loads of cream for butter are widely available. Condensed skim demand remains seasonally heavy. Spot purchases of condensed skim are selling from $0.15 to $0.27 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.05 – 1.32 in the East; 1.00 – 1.32 in the Midwest; 1.00 – 1.22 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices decreased in all regions this week. Contacts report softening domestic demand and growing spot inventories. Prices for high heat NDM fell in the West and at the top of the range in the Central and East regions. Dry buttermilk prices decreased across the range in the Central and East regions but held steady in the West. Prices for dry whole milk declined this week but spot trades remain limited. In the East and West, dry whey prices are unchanged, but prices increased at the bottom of the range and across the mostly price series in the Central region. The top of the whey protein concentrate 34% (WPC 34%) price range moved lower this week and the bottom is unchanged. Demand is steady but limited, as most recent production is going toward contractual obligations. Lactose prices are unchanged across the mostly price series and at the bottom of the range, but the top of the range slid lower. Contacts report lactose markets are firm as demand continues to outpace production. Prices for acid and rennet casein are unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS

WEST EUROPE: The European Commission is forecasting EU milk deliveries to rise 0.15% in 2025, and herds to decline by about 1%. Gains come from higher yields and milk components (fat +0.2%; protein +0.1%). Consolidation is accelerating in Europe's dairy sector as producers face tight margins, flat milk output, and mounting regulatory pressures. While farmers enjoyed strong profits early in 2025, concerns loom over potential U.S. tariffs and stricter EU water quality rules. 

EAST EUROPE: Russian market milk production increased 2.6% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 6.3 million tons. The largest gains came from agricultural enterprises (larger industrial livestock farms), where output rose 3.7% to 5.2 million tons; overall supplies remain ahead of 2024 levels. 

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: Milk production data from Australia for July 2025 were recently released by Dairy Australia. These data show total July 2025 milk production was 556.1 million liters, down 23.3 million liters (4.0 percent) year over year. Dairy Australia recently released export data for Australia showing milk export volumes in July 2025 totaled 15,587 metric tons, up 19.0 percent year over year. 

NEW ZEALAND: Following Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event 387, a group in New Zealand that forecasts milk prices decreased their milk price forecast for the 2025/2026 season by 22 cents from $10.27 per kilogram milk solids (kgMS) to $10.05/kgMS. The spot value of milk decreased to $10.32/kgMS from $10.72/kgMS. The group noted prices for skim milk powder and whole milk powder were both below market expectations at GDT event 387, leading to a decline in the milk price forecast. 

SOUTH AMERICA: Milk production varies from steady to stronger throughout South America. Industry sources note Argentina milk production is up 12 percent year over year for the first half of 2025. Aside from UHT (ultra-heat treatment) milk, for which prices are stable, milk prices are somewhat weaker.

JULY DAIRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS (NASS): Butter production was 180 million pounds, 9.8 percent above July 2024 but 4.4 percent below June 2025. American type cheese production totaled 476 million pounds, 2.3 percent above July 2024 and 0.4 percent above June 2025. Total cheese output (excluding cottage cheese) was 1.21 billion pounds, 2.1 percent above July 2024 and 0.9 percent above June 2025. Nonfat dry milk production, for human food, totaled 130 million pounds, 7.1 percent above July 2024, and 7.8 percent below June 2025. Dry whey production, for human food, was 66.3 million pounds, 5.7 percent above July 2024, and 10.6 percent below June 2025. Ice cream, regular hard production, totaled 69.3 million gallons, 4.2 percent above July 2024, and 6.8 percent above June 2025.

AUGUST CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: The August CPI for all food is 341.3, up 3.2 percent from 2024. The dairy products index is 272.8, up 1.3 percent from a year ago. The following are the August, year to year percentage changes for selected products: fresh whole milk is +0.5; cheese, +2.7; and butter, +0.1.