US dairy exports to increase slightly - USDA ERS

Forecast for dairy herd size has been lowered
calendar icon 21 March 2024
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Compared with 2023, dairy exports on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis should increase slightly this year—about 0.2%. Relatively strong domestic demand for dairy products and limited growth in milk production will likely limit export growth, according to a recent USDA ERS market report

The forecasts for dairy herd size, milk per cow, and total milk production in 2024 have been lowered relative to the last month’s forecast to 9.335 million head, 24,345 pounds, and 227.3 billion pounds, respectively. 

With expectations of firm domestic demand and based on recent trade data, the 2024 dairy import forecasts have been revised upward, while US dairy export forecasts have been revised downward. 

The 2024 average price forecasts for butter and cheddar cheese have been revised upward, while the price forecasts for dry whey and nonfat dry milk have been revised downward. The 2024 forecast for the all-milk price has been increased to $21.25 per hundredweight, $0.30 higher than last month’s forecast.

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