New Zealand milk production forecast to decline - GAIN

Fluid milk production forecast to be 21.2 million metric tons
calendar icon 21 May 2024
clock icon 1 minute read

New Zealand fluid milk production is forecasted to be 21.2 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2024 market year, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

This is a decrease on the previous 5-year average of ~21.6 MMT, reflecting the decreasing herd numbers and the short-term effects of the following: El Niño weather pattern, softening revenue, high cost of debt servicing, and challenging feed and fertiliser prices. 

Notably, New Zealand milk processing companies have strategically redirected their investments in recent years. They have shifted their processing capabilities from drying milk powder to more fresh products such as butter, cheeses, and creams. 

FAS/Wellington forecasts export growth in New Zealand Butter/AMF, Skim Milk Powder (SMP), and Cream products in 2024. Whole Milk Powder (WMP) will continue to be the primary dairy export to overseas markets. 

In the first quarter of 2024, global export volumes of dairy products from New Zealand were up 19% at the same time last year.

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