Farmer sentiment weakens in July, barometer shows
Purdue/CME index drops 11 points as income outlook dims
25 August 2025
2 minute read
By: Farmer sentiment weakened in July as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 11 points to 135, down from 146 in June. The decline reflected US farmers’ weaker views on both current conditions and future expectations.
The Current Conditions Index dropped 17 points to 127, while the Future Expectations Index slipped 7 points to 139. Despite the lower scores, sentiment remains stronger than a year ago. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said US policy is headed “in the right direction.”
The Farm Financial Performance Index fell 14 points to 90, reflecting concerns about weak income prospects for 2025. Purdue noted that softening crop prices are eroding projected income, with corn and soybean bids in the eastern Corn Belt down 7% and 3% respectively compared to June. The weaker income outlook also contributed to a 7-point drop in the Farm Capital Investment Index, now at 53.
Short-term farmland value expectations declined, with the index falling 5 points to 115, down three points from last year and 10 points from two years ago. Most respondents—73%—expect cash rental rates for 2026 to remain unchanged, while only 11% foresee a decline.
Confidence in the farm income safety net may have helped support farmland values. Thirty-one percent of farmers said they expect a stronger safety net in the 2025 farm bill compared to 2024.
More optimism was seen on trade. Forty-three percent of respondents expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, up two points from June. At the same time, fewer farmers anticipate declining exports, while 64% said they believe new markets will open to U.S. goods.
“Producers held dim views of current conditions and future expectations, which weakened the sentiment of US farmers in July,” said Michael Langemeier, principal investigator of the barometer and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Still, producers showed somewhat more optimism about US agricultural trade prospects in July, with the majority assessing that the US policy is heading in the right direction.”
