EU milk production to decline in 2025 - GAIN
Low margins, environmental restrictions, disease impact farmers
24 October 2024
1 minute read
By: EU milk deliveries are forecast to amount to 149.4 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.
With a marginal decline in cows’ milk production and stable “other” milk production (primarily from sheep and goats), projections are 0.2% below the revised 2024 estimate.
Low farmer margins combined with environmental restrictions and disease outbreaks among the major producers continue to push some smaller farmers out of production.
This trend is expected to result in declining cow numbers in 2025, which will not be fully compensated by increased productivity, leading to marginally lower cows’ milk deliveries in 2025 at 145.3 MMT.
In 2024, cows' milk deliveries are estimated to amount to 145.6 MMT, 0.3% above 2023 levels.
EU average farm gate milk prices partially recovered in early 2024 and then stabilised. Fluid milk domestic consumption is expected to continue a declining trend and amount to 23.5 MMT in 2025, down by 0.3%. With lower milk production in 2025, factory use consumption is also forecast to minimally decrease by 0.2% in 2025. This will require dairy processors to carefully decide for which products they will use the available milk.
