Brazil milk prices fall as production outpaces demand in July
Cepea reports 8.42% drop from last year’s levels
3 September 2025
1 minute read
By: Data from Cepea show that prices for milk produced in July averaged BRL 2.6236/litre [USD 0.52/litre] across Brazil, down 1.16% from June 2025 and 8.42% compared to July 2024, in real terms (IPCA – July). The decline is attributed to increased production and limited domestic demand.
The Cepea Milk Production Index (ICAP-L) rose 1% from June to July on the national average. Preliminary data from the Quarterly Milk Survey (IBGE) indicate that industrial milk production reached 6.5 billion litres in the second quarter of 2025—up 9.3% from the same period last year.
According to IBGE, total milk production in Brazil for the first half of 2025 reached 12.98 billion litres, an increase of 6.2% compared to the first half of 2024.
The rise in output is largely due to greater investment in the sector, supported by more attractive profit margins since the second half of last year. Cepea data point to a more favourable milk-to-corn exchange ratio, helping producers manage costs.
In response to higher domestic availability, dairy imports dropped 5% year over year from January to July 2025, totalling 1.3 billion litres.
