3 November 2011

3 minute read

The drop was triggered by sharp declines in international prices of cereals, oils, sugar and dairy products. Meat prices declined the least. However FAO's November Index showed that prices last month were still some five per cent above the corresponding period last year.

An improved supply outlook for a number of commodities and uncertainty about global economic prospects is putting downward pressure on international prices, although to some extent this has been offset by strong underlying demand in emerging countries where economic growth remains robust.

Below recent highs

Most agricultural commodity prices could thus remain below their recent highs in the months ahead, according to FAO's biannual Food Outlook report. The publication reports on and analyses developments in global food and feed markets.

In the case of cereals, where a record harvest is expected in 2011, the general picture points to prices staying relatively firm, although at reduced levels, well into 2012.

Food Outlook forecast 2011 cereal production at a record 2 325 million tonnes, 3.7 per cent above the previous year. The overall increase comprises a six per cent rise in wheat production, and increases of 2.6 per cent for coarse grains and 3.4 per cent for rice. Globally, annual cereal food consumption is expected to keep pace with population growth, remaining steady at about 153 kg per person.

Cereal Price Index

International cereal prices have declined in recent months, with the FAO Cereal Price Index registering an eleven month-low of 232 points in October. But nonetheless cereal prices, on average, remain five per cent higher than last year's already high level.

Severe problems caused by flooding recently marred rice production prospects in Thailand. However, impact on the international market has been limited so far given large reserves.

Large global supplies of sugar have put downward pressure on sugar prices since June. Improved supplies also weighed on dairy markets while strong palm oil output and record sunflower seed crops have driven prices down in the oils sector in recent months.

According to Food Outlook prices generally remain "extremely volatile," moving in tandem with unstable financial and equity markets. "Fluctuations in exchange rates and uncertainties in energy markets are also contributing to sharp price swings in agricultural markets," FAO Grains Analyst Abdolreza Abbassian noted.

Import bill

High food prices are putting pressure on Least Developed countries (LDCs) who have seen their food import bill soar by almost a third from last year, the report found. The global cost of national food imports is expected to approach $1.3 trillion this year.

World cereal inventories are forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent from their reduced opening levels, to 507 million tonnes by the end of seasons in 2012. At this level, the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio for 2011/12 is expected to approach 22 per cent, up only slightly from 2010/11.

AMIS System to improve information, transparency

The new issue of Food Outlook includes a chapter on the new Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), established by the G20 earlier this year and housed at FAO Headquarters in Rome.

AMIS is managed by a joint Secretariat composed of nine international organisations (FAO, IFAD,OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, the WTO, IFPRI and the UN High Level Task Force the Global Food Security Crisis) with capacity to collect, analyse and disseminate information on a regular basis regarding the current and future food market situation and food policies.

In addition to the Secretariat, AMIS includes two groups, performing the following important functions: the Global Food Market Information Group to collect and analyse food market information and the Rapid Response Forum to discuss policy responses.

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