Weekly US Cattle Outlook - Futures Show Modest Declines
US - Weekly Cattle Outlook, 29th June 2007 - Weekly review of the US cattle industry, written by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.
The June 1 Cattle on Feed report showed almost one percent more cattle on feed than expected based on trade estimates. The futures showed very modest declines on Monday on the nearby contracts. The June contract closed down $0.30 per cwt on Monday and the August contract closed down $0.40 per cwt from Friday.
The larger number on feed than expected was due to larger placements, up 13 percent from last year, and smaller marketings, down 3 percent from 2006.
Practically all of the increase in placements of cattle on feed during May was cattle weighing over 700 pounds. The cattle placed on feed below 600 pounds in number was down 4.5 percent. The number placed weighing 600-699 pounds was up 1.1 percent. The number placed weighing 700-799 pounds was up 29.5 percent, and the number placed weighing over 800 pounds was up 21 percent from last year.
Consumer demand for all meats with the exception of broilers for the first five months of 2007 was up a little from last year. Consumer demand for beef for January-May was up 1.1 percent, pork up 0.6 percent, turkey up 3.8 percent, but broiler consumer demand was down 3.5 percent for the five-month period compared to 2006.
Both live-fed-cattle and live-hog demand for January - May was up from 2006. Live-fed-cattle demand for these five months was up 4.7 percent and live-hog demand was up 3.8 percent.
Cow slaughter is running well above last year. Total cow slaughter for the year through the week ending June 9 was up 14.6 percent from last year. Dairy cow slaughter was up 13.4 percent and beef cow slaughter was up 15.6 percent.
For the four weeks ending June 9, total cow slaughter was up 11.8 percent from last year, dairy cow slaughter was up 4.4 percent, and beef cow slaughter was up 17.0 percent.
The relative large beef cow slaughter for recent weeks is probably due to dry weather in the southeastern U.S. For Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee, the average percentage of pasture that was poor or very poor was 66.2 percent for last week.
Feeder steer and heifer prices this week at Oklahoma City were steady to $2 per cwt lower than seven days earlier. Steer and heifer calves were steady at Oklahoma City this week compared to last week.
The prices for medium- and large-frame number one steers by weight groups were: 400-500 pounds $129.50-139 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $120-131 per cwt, 600-700-pound calves $105-115.50 per cwt, 600-700-pound yearlings $110.75-119.50 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $105.75-112.35 per cwt, and 800-1,000 pounds $94-111.25 per cwt.
Fed slaughter cattle prices were pushed lower again this week. The five-market area live weighted average price through Thursday at $83.50 per cwt was down $2.80 per cwt from seven days earlier. The five-market weighted average carcass price for the week through Thursday was down $4.10 per cwt at $132.80 per cwt from a week earlier.
Wholesale beef prices Friday morning for Choice beef at $138.92 per cwt was down $1.25 per cwt from a week earlier. The Select beef price was down $1.66 per cwt at $132.68 per cwt Friday morning compared to last Friday.
Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 696 thousand head, down 1.6 percent from a year earlier.
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