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USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

19 May 2015

USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - May 2015USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - May 2015

Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook

Rains Improve Southern Plains Short-Term Forage Conditions

Beef/Cattle: Recent precipitation in much of cattle country is providing positive short-term impacts for forage conditions. More steers and fewer heifers and cows in the slaughter mix will likely result in heavier dressed weights, partially offsetting the impact that overall declining slaughter numbers will have on beef production.

Beef/Cattle Trade: U.S. beef exports continue to struggle in 2015 as a result of high domestic beef prices and a strong U.S. dollar. In aggregate, USDA is forecasting 2015 exports to reach 2.461 billion pounds, down 4 percent from 2014. Modest improvements are forecast for Calendar Year (CY) 2016, with USDA projecting total beef exports at 2.510 billion pounds. USDA has raised total annual beef imports from 2.910 billion pounds to 3.116 billion pounds for CY 2015; however, total beef imports are expected to decline by approximately 9 percent in 2016 to 2.820 billion pounds.

Pork/Hogs: Commercial U.S. pork production in 2016 is expected to be about 1 percent higher than in 2015. Hog prices for 2016 will reflect larger supplies, averaging $44-$48 per cwt, 5.4 percent below prices this year. Larger pork supplies and the lower prices that result should help to partially offset the effects of the higher U.S. dollar exchange rate, leading to a 5.3 percent increase in 2016 U.S. pork exports.

Poultry: Broiler meat production totaled 9.7 billion pounds in the first quarter of 2015, 4.6 percent higher than in the same period in 2014, based on increases in the number of birds slaughtered and their average liveweight. Broiler cold storage holdings at the end of March totaled 720 million pounds, up 27.6 percent from the previous year, due mainly to rising leg quarter holdings. U.S. turkey meat production in first-quarter 2015 totaled 1.429 billion pounds, 7.2 percent higher than a year earlier. Table egg production totaled 1.788 billion dozen in the first quarter, 1.0 percent more than a year earlier.

Poultry Trade: Turkey and broiler shipments in March were down from a year ago, while egg and egg product shipments were up compared with a year earlier. Broiler shipments totaled 603 million pounds in March 2015, a decrease of 4.1 percent from a year earlier, but higher than previously expected. Turkey shipments decreased 11.0 percent from a year ago, totaling 54.2 million pounds, while egg and egg product exports totaled 34.0 million dozen in March 2015, a 21.2-percent increase from the previous March.

Dairy: Milk production for 2015 is forecast at 208.6 billion pounds, 1.3 percent higher than the 2014 level of 206.0 billion pounds, but 1.4 billion pounds less than forecast last month. The all-milk price for 2015 is forecast at $17.10-$17.60 per cwt. Milk production for 2016 is forecast to increase to 213.6 billion pounds, and the 2016 allmilk price is forecast at $17.45 to $18.45 per cwt.

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