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USDA Feed Outlook

15 May 2015

USDA Feed Outlook - May 2015USDA Feed Outlook - May 2015

Feed Outlook

U.S. 2015 Corn Production Projected Below 2014 Record, Corn Prices To Remain Weak

Based on planting intentions from USDA’s NASS Prospective Plantings report and a weather-adjusted trend yield, corn production for 2015/16 is projected down 4 percent from 2014/15. The rapid pace of spring plantings—75 percent planted in the 18 major cornproducing States as of May 10 as compared to 55 percent in the previous year—is not expected to be a major factor in yield determination. Rather, summer weather has historically played a larger role in the variation in observed yields. Sorghum, barley, and oats production are projected to be up modestly for the 2015/16 marketing year. Sorghum exports in 2015/16 are anticipated to remain strong at 335 million bushels. Despite planting delays in Texas, early new-crop sorghum supplies are expected to be adequate to augment available 2014 oldcrop supplies and support the 2014/15 export projection of 350 million bushels.

World coarse grain beginning stocks for 2015/16 are forecast at 227.8 million tons, up 17.0 million from a year earlier and the largest in 15 years. The stocks increase swamps the 7.5- million-ton reduction in production, leaving global coarse grain supplies in 2015/16 up 9.6 million tons to a record 1,505.1 million. Global coarse grain feed and residual use is projected to increase a modest 1.6 percent in 2015/16 to a record 774.9 million tons. Growth in industrial use of coarse grains has slowed as biofuels produced from grain have become less fashionable and declining petroleum prices make them less economic. The increased 2015/16 use balances the increased supply, leaving world coarse grain ending stocks nearly unchanged from beginning stocks. However, more of those stocks are held in China.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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