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13 January 2015

USDA WASDE - January 2015USDA WASDE - January 2015

USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

WHEAT: Feed and residual use for 2014/15 is lowered 30 million bushels reflecting disappearance for June-November as indicated by the December 1 stocks released in the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is lowered on the winter wheat planted area reported today in the Winter Wheat Seedings report. U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are up slightly on increased beginning stocks. Projected ending stocks are raised 33 million bushels. The 2014/15 season-average farm price is projected 10 cents higher on both ends to $5.90 to $6.30. Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 1.7 million tons with both increased production and beginning stocks.

World wheat production remains record high and is raised 1.2 million tons led by a 1.1-million-ton increase for Ethiopia on improved weather conditions. EU is raised 0.1 million tons on updated government statistics. Global beginning stocks are up 0.5-million-tons almost exclusively on 2013/14 production revisions for EU. Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is raised with exports up 1.2 million tons on larger supplies and stronger demand in several importing countries. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU and 0.7 million tons for Ukraine. The EU increase stems from a fast shipment pace to date and expanded opportunities once Russia’s export duties take effect. The Ukraine increase also stems from expanded opportunities resulting from Russian export duties.

Exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Iran, and 0.2 million tons each for India and Kazakhstan; these changes are all on a fast shipment pace to date. Partly offsetting is a 2-million-ton export decrease for Russia on announced export duties that will take effect February 1. EU and Iran imports are each raised 0.5 million tons. Uzbekistan and United Arab Emirates are raised 0.2 and 0.1 million tons, respectively. Partly offsetting are a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Ethiopia imports and a 0.2-millionreduction for China. The Ethiopia reduction reflects a larger crop; all other import changes are on pace to date. Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is up slightly mostly on increased feed use for Iran, Ethiopia, and Uzbekistan. A 0.2-million-ton increase for Ethiopia food use is offset by a 0.2-million-ton reduction for EU. Increased supplies are mostly offset by increased use with global ending stocks raised 1.1 million tons.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected lower with a reduction in corn production more than offsetting an increase in sorghum. Harvested area for corn is increased slightly, but the national average yield is estimated 2.4 bushel per acre lower at 171.0 bushels per acre. Corn production is estimated 191 million bushels lower. Yield and production, however, both remain records. Sorghum production is raised 25 million bushels with increases estimated for both harvested area and yield.

Total projected corn use for 2014/15 is reduced 75 million bushels with lower feed and residual use only partly offset by an increase in corn used for ethanol production. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels with the smaller crop and reflecting September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels mostly offsetting a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol. Corn ending stocks are projected 121 million bushels lower. The projected range for the season average corn farm price is raised 15 cents on each end to $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel.

Other 2014/15 U.S. feed grain changes reflect the continued strong pace of sorghum export sales and shipments to China and changes in feed and residual disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are raised 40 million bushels. Domestic sorghum use is lowered 10 million bushels with a reduction in food, seed, and industrial use partly offset by higher feed and residual use. Barley feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels based on June-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. The sorghum farm price range is raised 30 cents on each end to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel and higher than the projected corn price because of the large share of use coming from exports this year. The barley farm price range is raised 10 cents at the midpoint to $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel based on higherthan-expected prices for feed barley reported to date. The oats farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.10 to $3.40 per bushel.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 3.7 million tons lower as a result of this month’s reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Foreign coarse grain supplies are raised slightly with higher corn production for India and EU and higher barley production for Ethiopia. India corn production is raised 1.0 million tons with higher-than-expected plantings reported for its winter crop. EU corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher production reported for Spain, Croatia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Offsetting these increases is a 0.4-million-ton reduction for Brazil sorghum with lower expected area.

Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is reduced slightly as lower domestic use in the United States is mostly offset by higher corn use for Ethiopia, EU, India, and Canada. Sorghum consumption is raised for China, but lowered for Brazil and Japan. Barley consumption is raised slightly with increases for Ethiopia and Iran. Global coarse grain exports are up 1.3 million tons with most of the increase for sorghum. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States and imports are raised for China but lowered for Japan. Barley exports are raised for Australia and Kazakhstan with imports raised for Iran and Tunisia. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 3.3 million tons mostly on lower projected corn stocks in the United States. Corn ending stocks are also lowered for Argentina with an increase this month in 2013/14 exports.

RICE: The U.S. 2014/15 rice crop is estimated at 221.0 million cwt, down fractionally from the previous estimate. Average yield is estimated at 7,572 pounds per acre, down 25 pounds per acre. Harvested area is estimated at 2.919 million acres, up 9,000 acres from the previous estimate with most of the increase in Arkansas. Long-grain rice production is estimated at 162.4 million cwt, up 2.1 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 2.2 million to 58.7 million.

All rice imports for 2014/15 are increased 1.0 million cwt to 22.0 million due primarily to a large shipment of long-grain broken rice from Vietnam reported in the November trade data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The all rice 2014/15 domestic and residual use projection is unchanged at 131.0 million as implied by the December 1 stocks. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice domestic and residual use are both unchanged from a month ago and projected at 99.0 million and 32.0 million, respectively. The all rice export projection is unchanged at 103.0 million cwt; however, the long-grain export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 70.0 million and the combined medium- and short-grain forecast is lowered to 33.0 million. The boost in the longgrain export projection is due primarily to increased exports of rough rice to Latin America as reported in the November trade data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. The 2014/15 all rice rough export projection is unchanged at 35.0 million cwt and the milled and brown rice component is unchanged at 68.0 million (rough rice equivalent basis).

All rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 40.9 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month, and an increase of 28 percent from a year ago. Long-grain rice ending stocks are forecast at 29.1 million cwt, up 2.1 million from last month. Combined medium- and short-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 9.5 million cwt, down 1.2 million from last month.

The 2014/15 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $11.70 to $12.70 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt on each end from last month. The combined medium- and shortgrain farm price range is projected at $18.00 to $19.00 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.60 to $14.60 per cwt, down 40 cents per cwt on each end. The decrease in the price projections is due to lower-than-expected prices reported in the December issue of Agricultural Prices released by USDA and price expectations the remainder of the marketing year. Global 2014/15 rice supply and use is changed very little from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at 475.5 million tons up 0.2 million from last month, but down 1.5 million from the record 2013/14 crop. The increase in the 2014/15 crop is primarily due to an increase for Paraguay which is partially offset by a drop in Brazil.

Global consumption for 2014/15 is increased 0.4 million tons to a record 483.3 million tons with small increases distributed among several countries. The export projection for 2014/15 is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 42.6 million due primarily to increases for Burma, Guyana, Paraguay, and Thailand. Imports are raised for Bolivia, Haiti, Syria, and the United States. Global rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.0 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month, and a decrease of 7.9 million from the prior year. Ending stocks projections are lowered for Brazil and Thailand, but increased for Bangladesh and the United States.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is estimated at 117.4 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month. Larger crops for soybeans, peanuts, and cottonseed are partly offset by reductions for sunflowerseed and canola. Soybean production is estimated at 3,969 million bushels, up 11 million bushels with lower harvested area more than offset with increased yields. Harvested area is estimated at 83.1 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast. The soybean yield is estimated at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Soybean exports are increased 10 million bushels to 1,770 million reflecting record exports during the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal balance sheet changes include increased imports and domestic consumption. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include reduced production on a lower extraction rate and lower domestic use for biodiesel.

The 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $9.45 to $10.95 per bushel, up 20 cents at the midpoint based on prices reported to date. The soybean oil price is forecast at 31 to 35 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. The soybean meal price projection is unchanged at $340 to $380 per short ton. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.4 million tons, up 1.6 million on increases for soybeans, sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and peanuts.

Global soybean production is projected at 314.4 million tons, up 1.6 million on gains for Brazil and the United States. The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.5 million tons to a record 95.5 million. The increase is based on higher projected yields for major producing states including Mato Grosso and Parana. Soybean production is reduced for India on lower yields reflecting late planting and a short monsoon season. Several years of historical revisions are also made for India soybean production. Other changes include increased soybean production for Bolivia, increased soybean and sunflowerseed production for EU, and reduced cottonseed production for India. Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.7 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month. Increased soybean exports for the United States and increased rapeseed export prospects for Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.7 million tons, up 0.6 million on increased soybean stocks in Brazil which are partly offset by lower soybean stocks in EU and lower canola stocks in Canada.

SUGAR: U.S. 2014/15 total sugar supply is decreased 9,412 short tons, raw value (STRV) from last month to 13.910 million. With no change to beginning stocks or production, the change in supply is attributable to a net reduction in imports. Imports from Mexico are decreased by 22,419 STRV to 1.602 million. This total is based on the Target Quantity of U.S. Needs defined in the Agreement Suspending the Countervailing Duty Investigations on Sugar from Mexico, effective December 19, 2014. This agreement is assumed to be part of official U.S. government policy limiting sugar imports from Mexico. Imports entering under the Caribbean/Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement are increased 13,007 STRV, increasing total sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports to 1.492 million.

Total imports are 3.504 million STRV. There are no changes to total use. Ending stocks are calculated residually at 1.666 million STRV. The implied stocks-to-use ratio is 13.6 percent, slightly less than last month’s 13.7 percent. Mexico 2014/15 production is increased by 11,372 metric tons (MT) to 6.151 million based on the first production estimate from Comité Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Caña de Azúcar (Conadesuca). The 2014/15 projection represents an increase over last year of 130,080 MT, or 2.2 percent. Exports are decreased by 19,187 MT to 1.696 million MT. The current projection is the sum of exports of 1.371 million MT to the United States, and 325,000 MT to other countries. Ending stocks are calculated residually at 954,559 MT, implying an ending stocks-to-consumption ratio of 22.7 percent.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production for 2015 is raised from last month on increased beef and pork production. Poultry production forecasts are unchanged. Beef production is raised on higher carcass weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated farrowings increased 3 percent in September-November 2014 and that producers intend to expand farrowings by 4 percent during December-May 2015.

The report also showed that pigs per litter was record high for the September-November period; continued growth in pigs per litter is expected during 2015, resulting in greater availability of hogs for slaughter. However, the increase in the number of slaughter hogs may be partly offset by lower weights as hogs are marketed more rapidly.

For 2014, the total meat production estimate is raised on higher pork and broiler production. Beef production is reduced on a slightly slower pace of slaughter. The forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are raised, but the export forecast is reduced for 2014. Pork exports for 2014 are reduced on the pace of shipments, but the forecast is unchanged for 2015. No change is made to imports. Broiler exports are reduced slightly for 2015. No change is made to the turkey export forecasts. The cattle price forecasts for 2015 are reduced from last month. The hog price forecast for 2015 is lowered on larger supplies. Broiler prices are lowered for 2015 as supplies of competing meats pressure prices. No change is made to turkey or egg prices. Prices for 2014 are adjusted to incorporate December data.

The milk production estimate for 2014 and the forecast for 2015 are lowered from last month on slower growth in cow numbers and milk per cow. Skim-solids export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015 primarily on stronger sales of whey and nonfat dry milk. Fat basis exports are unchanged for 2014 but slightly higher in 2015. Ending stocks for 2014 are raised as domestic demand has been weaker than expected. Dairy product prices for 2015 are reduced as carry-in stocks are higher and supplies remain relatively large, especially in the first half of the year. However, demand is expected to strengthen later in the year with lower price levels, limiting further price declines. The Class III and Class IV prices for 2015 are lowered on weaker product prices. The all milk price is lowered to $17.75-18.55 per cwt for 2015.

COTTON: The 2014/15 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly larger production and ending stocks. Production is raised 161,000 bales, as the crop is estimated higher in all regions except the Southeast. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged, resulting in estimated ending stocks of 4.7 million bales. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers of 59.5 to 63.5 cents per pound is narrowed 0.5 cents on both ends, with the midpoint unchanged at 61.5 cents. The 2014/15 world cotton estimates show small revisions from last month. Total world production is marginally higher, as increases for Pakistan, the United States, and Tanzania are mostly offset by a decrease for India. Global consumption is reduced nearly 400,000 bales, as a decrease for China is partially offset by increases for Sudan and Zimbabwe. China’s consumption is lowered as mills’ response to falling domestic cotton prices continues to be sluggish and yarn imports to date remain high. World trade is reduced marginally based on decreases in Pakistan’s imports and India’s exports. World ending stocks are now projected at 108.6 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Acting Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Seth D. Meyer, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.

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