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10 April 2013

USDA WASDE - April 2013USDA WASDE - April 2013

USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 15 million bushels higher this month with a small increase in seed use more than offset by lower expected feed and residual disappearance. Seed use for 2012/13 is raised slightly based on producer planting intentions for 2013/14 as reported in the March 28 Prospective Plantings.

Feed and residual use for 2012/13 is projected 15 million bushels lower reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks. Feed and residual use is projected lower for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring wheat, but declines are partly offset by higher expected feed and residual use for Soft Red Winter and White wheat.

All-wheat imports are unchanged, but a small increase in HRW wheat is offset by a decline in durum. The projected range for the wheat season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends to $7.70 to $7.90 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 2.9 million tons on higher world beginning stocks with the biggest increases for EU-27, Morocco, and Mexico. The increased stocks primarily reflect balance sheet revisions that lower 2011/12 domestic wheat use for several countries this month.

Global 2012/13 production is nearly unchanged, but notable changes are made for some countries. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Morocco with an upward yield revision.

EU-27 production is decreased 0.2 million tons with lower reported output for the United Kingdom. Saudi Arabia production is lowered 0.2 million tons with lower area. Smaller reductions are made for Chile and Tunisia.

Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012/13 with exports raised 2.6 million tons. Exports are increased 1.0 million tons each for Australia and EU-27. Exports are also raised for the FSU-12 with Ukraine up 0.5 million tons and Russia up 0.2 million tons. Import changes are made for a number of countries. The biggest increases are for Iran, Algeria, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates. The biggest declines are for Morocco, Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.

World wheat feed and residual use is lowered 5.2 million tons with much of the decline resulting from a 3.0-million-ton reduction for China. Wheat feed use is also lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 with smaller reductions made for Russia, Vietnam, and Ukraine.

World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 4.0 million tons higher with China stocks raised 3.0 million. Increases for North Africa, EU-27, Iran, and the United States more than offset a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia and smaller reductions for FSU-12 and Saudi Arabia.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as an increase in ending year corn stocks more than offset reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bushels reflecting indicated
disappearance for the first half (September-February) of the marketing year.

The reduction in corn feed and residual use is partly offset by a combined 20-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use for the other feed grains based on the March 1 stocks.

Adding to 2012/13 feed grain supplies this month are increases of 3 million bushels and 2 million bushels, respectively, in projected barley and sorghum imports.

Domestic corn use for 2012/13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance.

Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices, and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year (March-August). Corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 125 million bushels.

The projected ranges for the season-average corn and sorghum farm prices are lowered 20 cents at their midpoints to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel and $6.60 to $7.10 per bushel, respectively. The projected farm price ranges for barley and oats are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.30 to $6.50 per bushel and $3.75 to $3.85 per bushel, respectively.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected higher with a 1.1-million-ton increase in world coarse grain production. Higher world corn production is partly offset by reductions in China sorghum and Algeria barley output. Corn production is raised 1.5 million tons for Brazil as continued favorable growing season weather boosts prospects for production to a record 74.0 million tons.

EU-27 corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with upward revisions to production in Spain, Hungary, and Poland. Corn production is also increased 0.2 million tons for Russia on the final government estimate. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in corn output for South Africa, Vietnam, and Serbia. South Africa production is lowered 0.5 million tons as more heat and dryness in March further trim yield prospects in the western and west central parts of the growing belt.

Global coarse grain trade for 2012/13 is raised slightly as a small reduction in world corn exports are more than offset by increases for EU-27 barley and India sorghum. Corn exports are lowered 0.6 million tons for the United States and 0.5 million tons for South Africa, but exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and Ukraine. Global corn feed and residual use is down 5.3 million tons with much of the decline reflecting the reduction in the United States.

Feed and residual use is also lowered for China, Egypt, Mexico, and Serbia. A 1.5- million-ton increase in EU-27 corn feed and residual use is partly offsetting. Global corn stocks are raised 7.8 million tons with 3.2-million-ton increases for both the United States and China, and a 0.9-million-ton increase for Brazil.

RICE: Higher-than-previously expected March 1 U.S. rice stocks, as reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on March 28, results in a 5.0- million-cwt reduction in all rice 2012/13 domestic and residual use, and a commensurate increase in ending stocks. No changes are made on the 2012/13 supply side or to projected exports. Long-grain 2012/13 domestic and residual use is lowered 4.0 million, and medium- and short-grain domestic use is lowered 1.0 million. The all rice 2012/13 export projection is unchanged at 108.0 million cwt.

NASS estimated March 1 all rice rough stocks at 104.3 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 6.7 million cwt (9.5 million on a rough-equivalent basis). The March 1 all rice stocks estimate on a rough-equivalent basis at 113.8 million cwt is up 0.8 percent from a year earlier, and up 0.9 percent from the preceding 5-year average.

The decrease in 2012/13 domestic and residual use led to a 5.0 million cwt or 17 per cent increase in all rice ending stocks to 34.1 million cwt. Long-grain ending stocks are raised 4.0 million cwt to 20.4 million, and medium- and shortgrain stocks increased 1.0 million to 11.5 million.

The projected U.S. average milling yield for 2012/13 is reduced to 70 percent, down 0.25 percentage points from last month. The change is based on data supplied by the Rice Millers’ Association of the USA Rice Federation for August through January and on expectations for
the remainder of the marketing year.

The midpoint of the 2012/13 long-grain, medium- and short-grain, and all rice season-average prices are unchanged at $14.50 per cwt, $15.90 per cwt, and $14.90 per cwt, respectively.

World rice production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 467.6 million tons, still a record, largely due to lower projections for Colombia, Pakistan, and Thailand, which are partially offset by increased projections for Ecuador, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Global consumption is reduced 0.9 million tons, largely due to reductions for Burma, Brazil, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and the United States. Trade projections for 2012/13 are little changed from a month ago. Global 2012/13 ending stocks at 103.8 million tons are up 0.5 million from last month, but down 1.7 million from the prior year.

OILSEEDS: The U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is increased 20 million bushels this month to 1.635 billion. The increase reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year. Increased U.S. soybean meal exports partly offset reduced meal exports for Brazil and Argentina as crush in those countries declines more quickly than expected on reduced supplies resulting from last year’s drought. Soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks.

Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, food use, and ending stocks. Increased food use partly offsets reduced imports and consumption of canola oil.

The season-average price range for soybeans is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 48 to 50 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $415 to $435 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 468.8 million tons, up 2 million from last month. South American soybean production accounts for most of the change. Paraguay soybean production is forecast at 8.35 million tons, up 0.6 million as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area. Projected yields resulting from favorable rainfall and relatively mild temperatures are the highest for Paraguay in the past 10 years.

Uruguay soybean production is also raised this month on higher area and yield. Uruguay benefitted from the same favorable weather pattern seen in Paraguay and southern Brazil. Other changes this month include higher rapeseed production for EU-27, higher sunflowerseed production for China, and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil.

Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 114.4 million tons, down 1.4 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Lower soybean exports projected for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay are only partly offset by increases for Uruguay and the United States. Lower exports in Paraguay reflect higher crush as new capacity becomes operational. Soybean imports are reduced 2 million tons to 61 million for China reflecting lower-than-expected imports for the first half of the marketing year. Higher soybean imports are projected for several countries including Egypt, EU-27, Mexico, and Vietnam. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2012/13 is decreased 122,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as lower production more than offsets higher imports from Mexico. Lower planted area and later seeding of the 2013 sugarbeet crop, compared with last year, reduce expected early harvest and sugar production in August and September. For 2012/13 sugar use, the strong pace to date supports an increase of 100,000 tons.

For Mexico, 2012/13 cane sugar production is increased based on increased sugarcane yields. Exports are increased both to U.S. and world markets, while higher ending stocks are in line with recent government forecasts.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month. Beef production is forecast down as lower expected fed cattle and bull slaughter more than offset greater cow slaughter. The pork production forecast is raised as the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slightly higher-than expected first-quarter pig crop and a smaller decline in the number of sows which farrowed or are expected to farrow in the first half of the year. Hog carcass weights are also raised as feed prices are forecast lower. The broiler production forecast is lowered for the first quarter based on production data to date, but subsequent quarters are unchanged. Turkey production is forecast lower as the turkey price forecast is reduced and hatchery data points to a slowdown
in poult placements.

The egg production forecast is lowered, reflecting recent hatchery data. The beef export forecast for 2013 is lowered, reflecting the pace of trade in the first quarter. Beef imports are raised on larger expected supplies in Oceania. Pork exports are cut as exports to a number of markets are relatively slow. The broiler export forecast is reduced from last month on expected higher prices.

Cattle prices are unchanged from last month. Hog prices are lowered as greater inventories and weaker forecast exports are expected to pressure prices. Broiler prices are raised on robust current prices and demand. Turkey price forecasts are lowered as demand has been weaker-than-expected. The egg price forecast is raised on stronger-than-expected first quarter prices.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is reduced on lower milk per cow in the first quarter. Cow numbers are unchanged from last month. Fat-basis imports are reduced mostly on lower imports of anhydrous products. The skim solids import forecast is reduced largely on lower expected imports of milk protein concentrates. Export forecasts are unchanged from last month. Fat-basis ending stocks are forecast higher, but skim-basis stocks are lowered.

With slightly lower forecast 2013 milk production and improved domestic product demand, price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised. As a result, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are higher than last month. The all milk price for 2013 is higher at $19.45-$19.95 per cwt.

COTTON: This month’s 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include offsetting increases in production and exports, resulting in ending stocks of 4.2 million bales, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Production is raised 280,000 bales based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25, 2013. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are raised to 13.0 million bales, based on the larger supply and strong export shipments to date. The marketing year average price received by producers is now forecast at 70.5 to 73.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on each end of the range, reflecting recent higher prices.

The 2012/13 world cotton estimates show higher beginning and ending stocks and sharply higher trade. Beginning stocks are raised mainly in India due to adjustments to the 2010/11 and 2011/12 balance sheets. World production is forecast slightly lower as a reduction for Brazil is partially offset by the increase in the United States. World consumption is raised slightly, as recent data indicate higher consumption for India and Vietnam. Forecast world trade is raised 1.8 million bales, including a 1.5-million-bale increase for China, based on reported allocations of additional import quotas to mills. Exports are raised for India, the United States, and Australia, but are lowered for Brazil and Mexico.

World 2012/13 ending stocks are now projected at 82.5 million bales, nearly 1 percent above last month. China’s higher imports are expected to displace potential sales from the massive national reserve, raising stocks there to a projected 45.6 million bales. Stocks outside of China are projected 2 percent below last month.

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