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USDA WASDE


10 December 2014

USDA WASDE December 2014USDA WASDE December 2014


USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 10 million bushels this month with higher projected imports. Increased production and higher imports from Canada are expected to add to U.S. wheat supplies. The entire import increase is for Durum. Domestic use projections and wheat exports are unchanged. However, a 15-million-bushel reduction for Hard Red Winter exports is offset by 5-million-bushel increases for Hard Red Spring, White, and Durum. Ending stocks for all wheat are projected 10 million bushels higher with the supply increase. The projected season-average farm price range is raised 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint to $5.80 to $6.20 per bushel on prices reported to date and recently higher cash and futures prices. Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 1.9 million tons with increased production offsetting lower beginning stocks.

World wheat production remains record high and is raised 2.3 million tons led by a 1.8-million-ton increase for Canada. Kazakhstan is raised 0.5 million tons. Both production increases are from updated government statistics. Partly offsetting is a 0.4-million-ton reduction for global beginning stocks with Indonesia consumption raised for 2012/13 and 2013/14. Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is raised with exports up 3.1 million tons on larger supplies and stronger demand in several importing countries. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU, and 0.5 million tons each for Canada, Iran, and Kazakhstan. The EU increase stems from competitive prices and a fast sales pace to date. The Canada and Kazakhstan increases reflect larger crops. Iran exports are raised on larger flour exports to nearby countries. Russia exports are lowered 0.5 million tons on increased competition, particularly from EU. Iran imports are raised 1.0 million tons on a fast pace of shipments from EU. Egypt imports are raised 0.5 million tons on increasing purchases from the private sector. Smaller increases are made for Bangladesh, Jordan, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uzbekistan. Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is down slightly. The biggest change is a 1.5-million ton decrease in EU wheat feeding on larger coarse grain supplies and higher wheat exports. Canada wheat feeding is raised 0.5 million tons on the larger crop. Global ending stocks are projected 2.0 million tons higher mostly on increases for Canada, EU, and Russia.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supply and use projections for 2014/15 are mostly unchanged as a small increase in projected corn food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use reduces ending stocks slightly. Expected corn use for sweeteners is raised 10 million bushels dropping projected corn ending stocks just below 2.0 billion bushels. Supply and use projections for the other feed grains are unchanged. The projected range for the season-average corn farm price is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel. The sorghum farm price range is raised 5 cents on each end to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, equal to corn, as strong demand from China supports sorghum prices.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1.1 million tons higher. Higher corn production for China and EU, higher rye production for Russia, and higher oats production for Canada, more than offset lower expected corn and barley output for Argentina. Upward production revisions largely reflect the latest official government estimates and harvest results. Corn production for Argentina is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting lower expected plantings, but the reduction in area is partly offset by higher expected yields with abundant early season soil moisture in key growing areas. Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised 2.5 million tons mostly on higher expected barley and mixed grain feeding for EU and higher sorghum feeding for China. Corn feeding is also raised for EU driving the increase in projected foreign corn consumption. EU livestock and poultry feeders are expected to shift rations toward coarse grains as abundant supplies and stronger wheat exports make coarse grain feeding more competitive. Global coarse grain trade for 2014/15 is mostly unchanged. China corn imports are lowered, but China sorghum imports are raised. Mostly offsetting the increase for China sorghum is a reduction for Japan sorghum imports. Barley imports are raised for Saudi Arabia. Barley exports are lowered for Argentina, but partly offset by an increase for EU. World corn exports are lowered slightly with a reduction for Argentina only partly offset by an increase for Vietnam. Global ending stocks are projected 0.7 million tons higher mostly reflecting the larger China corn crop. Small reductions in U.S. and EU corn stocks partly offset the increase for China.

RICE: U.S. 2014/15 rice supplies at 273.9 million cwt are unchanged from a month ago. All rice domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is unchanged at 131.0 million cwt. U.S. long-grain exports are increased 1.0 million cwt to 69.0 million, bringing all rice exports to 103.0 million. Combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged at 34.0 million cwt. The increase in exports is due mostly to an expected increase to markets in the Middle East and South America. The all rice milled export forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 68.0 million, and rough rice exports are unchanged at 35.0 million. All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 39.9 million with long-grain stocks reduced to 27.0 million, and combined medium- and short grain stocks unchanged at 10.6 million. The 2014/15 long-grain rice season-average farm price range is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on each end from last month.

The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $18.50 to $19.50 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on each end. The drop in the price outlook is due mostly to an unexpected substantial drop in October prices reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service in Agricultural Prices published on November 26 and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. Global 2014/15 rice supply and use are changed little from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at 475.2 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month due primarily to increased forecasts for China and South Korea, partially offset by a reduction for Indonesia. China’s rice production is forecast at a record 144.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month, and up more than 1 percent from last year. The revision is based on production estimates recently released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Indonesia’s 2014/15 rice crop is forecast at 36.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month, but up slightly from 2013/14.

The Philippine 2014/15 rice crop is forecast at 12.2 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up nearly 3 percent from last year. Typhoon Hagupit struck the Philippines on December 6 and tracked through some rice growing areas, but missed the larger producing regions. Initial reports from the government of the Philippines indicated that the storm had little impact on the overall rice crop. However, USDA will continue to assess the damage and offer a more complete supply and use analysis in next month’s supply and demand report. Global rice consumption for 2014/15 is forecast at a record 482.9 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global trade is raised 0.4 million tons based largely on increased imports by Indonesia; with exports raised for Burma, China, Thailand, and the United States. World 2014/15 ending stocks are raised 0.6 million tons, largely due to increases for China and Vietnam, partially offset by reductions for Burma, Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States. Stocks are also raised for Sri Lanka and South Korea.

OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest. With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from last month but still the highest since 2006/07. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2014/15 is projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $340 to $380 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 32 to 36 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends reflecting lower-than-expected early season vegetable oil prices and lower petroleum prices. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change on increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed. Global soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 million tons with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased production for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for EU and reduced peanut production for Argentina.

Palm oil production is reduced for Indonesia for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 on revised yields. Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.3 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month. Soybean exports account for most of the change with higher projections for the United States, Paraguay, Ukraine, and Canada only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Brazil. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels. Increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower soybean stocks in the United States. SUGAR: U.S. 2014/15 total sugar supply is increased 189,844 short tons, raw value (STRV) from last month to 13.919 million.

Based on sugarcane processors’ forecasts, Florida sugar production is increased by 144,869 STRV due to increased sugarcane yield and area, and Texas cane sugar production is increased by 2,865 STRV due to increased yield. Imports are increased by 42,110 STRV due to an expected increase from Mexico. With no other changes, stocks increase by the supply increase and are now projected at 1.675 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.7 percent. Elements of the U.S. 2013/14 sugar supply and use balance were adjusted to reflect revisions from Sweetener Market Data and the Foreign Agricultural Service. Mexico 2014/15 beginning stocks and production are unchanged but imports are reduced by 24,135 metric tons (MT) to reflect expected imports from the United States. Total imports consist of 181,865 MT from the United States -- all but 10,000 MT for Mexico’s sugar containing products (IMMEX) program -- and 10,000 MT from non-U.S. sources for IMMEX. Total deliveries are reduced by 60,174 MT to reflect an expected decrease from last month in IMMEX activity. Deliveries to IMMEX are now projected at 323,826 MT and match IMMEX activity for 2013/14. Deliveries for consumption are unchanged and ending stocks are equal to 22.0 percent of those deliveries, or 924,000 MT, the same as last month. Exports for 2014/15 are calculated residually at 1.715 million MT. The 36,039 MT increase in exports is forecast to go to the U.S. market for a total of 1.390 million MT. Elements of the Mexico 2013/14 sugar supply and use balance were adjusted to reflect trade revisions from Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy (Economia) and IMMEX activity from Comité Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Caña de Azúcar (Conadesuca).

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is lowered from last month, as lower beef production in the fourth quarter more than offsets increased pork production. Beef production is reduced as slaughter is expected lower. However, carcass weights remain heavy which partly offsets the decline. Hog slaughter for the fourth quarter is increased from last month as slaughter to date has been strong. A small revision is made to third-quarter broiler slaughter but the forecasts for fourth quarter broiler and turkey production are unchanged. For 2015, total meat production is slightly higher on small increase in beef production; other production forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 23, providing an indication of producers’ sow farrowing intentions into 2015. The forecast for 2014 beef imports is raised on the pace of imports to date, but the export forecast is unchanged from last month. No change is made to 2015 forecasts. Pork imports are raised for 2014 and exports are reduced as relatively high prices are expected to encourage imports and limit sales opportunities.

For 2015, the import forecast is raised but exports are unchanged. No change is made to the broiler or turkey export forecasts. The cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month on continued demand strength and tight supplies of fed cattle. The hog price forecast for 2014 is lowered on current prices, but the 2015 price is unchanged. The broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2014 are raised. The turkey price forecast is increased for 2015 but broilers are unchanged. The egg price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised on expectations of strong demand through the end of 2014 and into early 2015. The milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month, but is lowered for 2015 as growth in milk per cow is expected to be more moderate. Fat basis imports are reduced for 2014 as milkfat imports have been lower than expected. Export forecasts on a skim-solids basis are raised for 2014 on stronger whey product sales to date. Fat and skim-solids basis trade forecasts for 2015 are unchanged.

The butter price is raised for 2014, reflecting current price movements, but the price forecast for 2015 is unchanged at the midpoint of the range. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are reduced for both 2014 and 2015 as supplies are expected to remain large. Whey prices are unchanged from last month. Class III prices for 2014 and 2015 are lowered on weaker cheese prices. The Class IV price is unchanged for 2014 as a higher butter price is offset by a lower NDM price. For 2015 a lower NDM price results in a reduced Class IV price forecast. The all milk price is lowered to $24.05 to $24.15 per cwt for 2014 and $18.45 to $19.25 per cwt for 2015. COTTON: The U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates for 2014/15 include lower production and ending stocks compared to last month. Production is reduced 474,000 bales, due mainly to a lower crop estimate for Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged.

Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.6 million bales, or one-third of total disappearance. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected at 59 to 64 cents per pound, an increase of 3 cents on the lower end of the range, based on stronger-than-expected early season prices. Global cotton ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised again this month, as a lower consumption forecast is partially offset by lower production. Production is reduced for the United States and Greece, with smaller revisions in several other countries. Global consumption is reduced nearly 1.3 million bales, reflecting lower forecasts for China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, and Turkey. While the projected world consumption growth rate of 3.3 percent remains above the historical average, current indications are that mills’ response to this season’s sharply lower cotton prices is lagging previous expectations. World ending stocks are projected at just over 108 million bales.

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