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USDA WASDE


17 November 2014

USDA WASDE November 2014USDA WASDE November 2014


USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are decreased 10 million bushels based on updated production estimates for the states resurveyed following the September 30 Small Grains report. Adjustments to production in these states, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and durum. The change results in corresponding decreases in ending stocks. The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on both the high and low end to $5.65 to $6.15 per bushel. Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are lowered 1.1 million tons with decreased production offsetting higher beginning stocks.

World production is lowered 1.3 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton decrease for Australia, a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Egypt, and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan. Partly offsetting is a 1.4-million-ton increase for EU. Changes for Northern Hemisphere countries reflect updated harvest reports and government statistics. Australia is lowered on persistent dryness in portions of the southeast that continued through October. Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is lowered 1.4 million tons due mainly to reductions for Egypt food and feed use, which stem from changes to their bread subsidy program. Global wheat imports are lowered 1.3 million tons to 153.4 million.

Egypt imports are lowered 0.8 million tons due to the new subsidy program that will change consumption patterns. South Korea imports are lowered 0.4 million tons on reduced feed quality wheat imports; China, Pakistan and Russia imports are each lowered 0.3 million tons. Partly offsetting the reductions are 0.3-million-ton increases for both Mexico and Turkey imports. The largest exporter decrease is 1.0 million tons for Australia on a smaller crop. Kazakhstan and Serbia exports were each lowered 0.2 million tons also due to smaller crops. A 0.3-million-ton increase in Turkey exports was partially offsetting. Global wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised 0.3 million tons to 192.9 million, mostly on higher stocks for EU.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain production for 2014/15 is lowered this month as lower corn, barley, and oats output more than offsets a small increase for sorghum. Corn production is forecast 68 million bushels lower, but still a record at 14,407 million bushels. The national average corn yield is reduced 0.8 bushels per acre to 173.4 bushels. Small decreases in barley and oats production reflect the resurvey of producers who reported unharvested acreage in early September for the Small Grains report.

Sorghum production is raised 4 million bushels with a higher forecast yield. U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is projected slightly higher with a 5-million-bushel increase in expected food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use. Corn used in ethanol production is projected 25 million bushels higher with a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol and the strong pace of weekly ethanol production reported so far for the marketing year. Mostly offsetting this increase is a 20- million-bushel reduction in other food and industrial use. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered 73 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average farm corn price is raised 10 cents on each end to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel

Sorghum exports for 2014/15 are projected 10 million bushels higher on continued strong demand. Higher sorghum prices, driven by the strong pace of export sales and shipments, reduce the attractiveness of sorghum used in ethanol production and drive this month’s reduction in projected sorghum FSI use. Sorghum feed and residual use is raised 5 million bushels with the increase in production. The projected sorghum season-average farm price range is raised 20 cents on each end to $3.15 to $3.75 per bushel.

The projected 2014/15 season-average farm prices for barley and oats are also raised this month based on prices reported to date. Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1.6 million tons higher as the U.S. reduction is more than offset by higher foreign output. Foreign corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with increases for EU, Ukraine, and Mexico more than offsetting reductions for China and Kenya. World mixed grain production is raised 1.3 million tons with an increase for EU on higher reported area and yields, mostly in Poland and Germany. World barley output is raised 0.6 million tons with increases for EU and Algeria more than offsetting small reductions for Kazakhstan and the United States.

Sorghum production is raised for Mexico, but lowered for Argentina, leaving foreign production up slightly. Rye production is lowered for EU. Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is lowered 1.1 million tons. Corn use is lowered for China, but raised for EU, Ukraine, and Mexico. Barley feed use is raised for China, but lowered for Ukraine. Sorghum use is raised for Mexico and China. Corn imports are lowered for EU, China, and Japan, but raised for Iran and South Korea. Corn exports are lowered for Argentina and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine. Barley and sorghum imports are raised for China. Barley exports are raised for Canada and Ukraine. World corn ending stocks are projected 0.9 million tons higher with the U.S. reduction more than offset by increases for Mexico, Brazil, Ukraine, China, and Argentina.

RICE: All rice supplies for 2014/15 are increased slightly from last month due to an increase in production. U.S. all rice production is forecast at 221.1 million cwt, up 0.2 percent from last month due to an increase in yield. Average all rice yield is estimated at 7,597 pounds per acre, up 13 pounds per acre from a month ago. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.91 million acres. Long grain rice production is up 0.2 million cwt to 160.3 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice production is raised 0.1 million cwt to 60.8 million cwt. On the 2014/15 use side, forecast all rice domestic and residual use and exports are unchanged from a month ago at 131.0 million cwt and 102.0 million, respectively.

However, the rough rice export component is raised 1.0 million cwt to 35.0 million, up 22 percent from the prior year, and the largest since 2009/10. Conversely, exports of milled rice are lowered 1.0 million (rough-rice basis) to 67.0 million. Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice are raised 2.0 million to 34.0 million, up 10 percent from 2013/14. Exports of medium-grain rice are expected to be larger because of forecast tighter supplies in Australia, and a change in the export policy in Egypt that likely will constrain exports. Australia and Egypt are two principal medium-grain rice competitors of the United States. Conversely, long-grain rice exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt to 68.0 million, still up 10 percent from the prior year.

Long-grain milled rice markets in the Middle East and Africa are expected to be very competitive and likely will favor lower-priced rice sourced from Asia. U.S. long-grain exports will be strong to markets in the Western Hemisphere. All rice ending stocks are forecast at 40.9 million cwt, up nearly 1 percent from last month, and an increase of nearly 29 percent from 2013/14. The 2014/15 long-grain rice season-average farm price range is projected at $12.20 to $13.20 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is

projected at $19.00 to $20.00 per cwt, up $1.30 per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.20 to $15.20 per cwt, up 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range. Tight supplies of combined medium- and short-grain rice in California along with reduced supplies among the major competitors including Australia and Egypt are expected to support prices. Conversely, a larger supply of lower priced Southern medium-grain rice will limit the increase in the total medium- and short-grain farm price. Global 2014/15 ending stocks are lowered 5.7 million tons or nearly 5.5 percent due to a decrease in total supplies and an increase in consumption. Total supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 4.4 million tons due mostly to a reduction in beginning stocks of 4.0 million.

India’s 2013/14 ending stocks are lowered nearly 3.0 million tons due mostly to an increase in consumption. Lower procurement of rice by the government of India coupled with higher disbursement of rice through the public distribution system drew down government rice stocks in 2013/14. Additionally, 2013/14 rice ending stocks in Thailand and Vietnam are lowered 0.8 million tons and 0.5 million, respectively. World 2014/15 rice production is lowered 0.4 million tons to 475.0 million tons due mostly to smaller crops forecast for Australia and Egypt, which are partially offset by an increase for South Korea. Global 2014/15 rice consumption is raised 1.3 million tons to a record 482.9 million due mostly to increases for India and Vietnam, partially offset by reductions for Egypt and South Korea.

Global rice trade is up 0.4 million tons from a month ago with a 0.8-million-ton increase for Thailand, partially offset by reductions for Australia and Egypt. Imports are increased for EU and China. The decline in global ending stocks is due mostly to reductions for India, Thailand, and Vietnam, partially offset by increases for China, Egypt, EU, and South Korea. Global 2014/15 ending stocks at 98.6 million tons are down nearly 8 million tons from 2013/14 and the lowest stocks since 2009/10. Stocks among the major foreign exporters are down 18 percent from 2013/14.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month on increased soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 3,958 million bushels, up 31 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is projected at a record 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa and South Dakota. Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1 percent above the October forecast.

U.S. soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 20 million bushels to 1,720 million reflecting the record pace of export sales through late October. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,780 million mostly due to increased soybean meal exports. Domestic soybean meal consumption is reduced slightly in line with changes in the 2013/14 balance sheet. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast. Soybean and soybean product prices for 2014/15 are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel. Soybean meal and soybean oil prices are projected at $330 to $370 per short ton and 34 to 38 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 528.9 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Higher soybean and rapeseed production are only partly offset by a lower sunflowerseed forecast. Global soybean production is projected at a record 312.1 million tons reflecting the increase for the United States. Global rapeseed production is raised to 70.7 million tons on a record EU harvest. Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower forecasts for Russia and

Kazakhstan which are partly offset by gains for EU and Serbia. Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for China and Australia. Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 134.6 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the United States and Ukraine and increased rapeseed exports from Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed crush is projected higher mainly on gains for soybeans in the United States, China, Ukraine, and South Korea. Partly offsetting is a reduction in soybean crush for Argentina. Rapeseed crush is raised for EU and China. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected lower at 103.0 million tons on reduced rapeseed stocks in Canada and Australia.

SUGAR: U.S. 2014/15 total sugar supply is increased 40,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) from last month to 13.729 million. Imports are increased by 135,000 STRV due to a reduction in the 2014/15 raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) shortfall projection by 101,000 and an expected increase of 34,000 from Mexico. Partially offsetting the import increase are decreases in expected 2014/15 sugar production (down 80,000 to 8.462 million based on changes in processors’ forecasts and National Agricultural Statistics Service sugar crop forecasts) and lower beginning stocks (down 14,000). Deliveries for food consumption are increased by 109,000 STRV to 11.859 million.

With no other changes, 2014/15 ending stocks are projected 69,000 STRV lower at 1.485 million for a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.1 percent. For 2013/14, complete-year Sweetener Market Data (SMD) implies increased total use of 59,000 STRV offsetting increases in total supply of 45,000 STRV. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are estimated at 1.796 million STRV and the 2013/14 stock-to-use is 14.3 percent. Mexico 2014/15 total sugar supply is decreased 37,000 metric tons (MT) with increased beginning stocks (146,000 MT) more than offset by lower expected imports for consumption (183,000 MT). Deliveries for human consumption are decreased by 54,000 MT based on a continuation of reduced sweeteners consumption observed in 2013/14. The ending stocks are forecast at 924,000 MT, 22.0 percent of consumption. Exports for 2014/15 are calculated residually at 1.679 million MT. The 29,000 MT increase in exports is forecast to go to the U.S. market for a new total of 1.354 million MT. For 2013/14, adjustments are made based on complete-year Comité Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Caña de Azúcar (Conadesuca) data. The largest change is a reduction of 52,000 MT in Mexico sugar consumption to 4.098 million MT. All other Conadesuca revisions are minor. An adjustment of -95,000 MT is included to account for the differences in trade reporting by U.S. and Mexican trade authorities.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is raised from last month, but the forecast for 2015 is lowered. Beef production is higher in 2014 but lowered for 2015. Cattle feeders are expected to raise animals to heavier weights in 2014 and 2015, but this is more than offset by a slower pace of marketings in the second half of 2015. Pork production is forecast lower in both 2014 and 2015 as hog weights are expected to reflect a more rapid movement of animals through finishing barns. Broiler production is raised for 2014 and 2015 as producers have expanded at a more rapid rate. Turkey production for 2014 is raised, reflecting September slaughter data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.

Egg production is raised for 2014 based on September data and the forecast for 2015 is raised as favorable returns are expected to stimulate a more rapid expansion. The 2014 beef import forecast is raised on the pace to date. The forecast for 2015 is unchanged from last month. Beef exports for 2014 are updated to reflect September data; the 2015 forecast is unchanged. Pork imports are raised for 2014, but are unchanged for 2015. Pork exports for 2014 are lowered to reflect September data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged. Broiler

exports are raised for 2014 and 2015 on strength of demand. The turkey export forecast for 2014 is lowered based on September data. Cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month on continued demand strength. The hog price forecasts for 2014 are lowered on weaker demand, but 2015 prices are unchanged. Broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged. Egg price forecasts for 2015 are reduced on higher production. The milk production forecast for 2014 is increased from last month as growth in milk per cow has increased. However, for 2015, the production forecast is lowered as the expansion in cow numbers and growth in milk per cow are expected to be more moderate.

Export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered as U.S. dairy products, especially on a skim solids basis, remain less competitive in world markets. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are raised for 2014, reflecting current price movements, but the price forecasts for 2015 are lowered as domestic supplies are expected to be relatively large. Butter prices are reduced for both 2014 and 2015 based on prices to date and weaker expected exports. Whey prices are unchanged from last month. The Class III price for 2014 is raised on stronger cheese prices, but weaker cheese prices in 2015 result in a lower expected Class III price. The Class IV price is lowered for 2014 as lower butter prices more than offset a higher NDM price. For 2015 both butter and NDM prices will be weaker, resulting in a lower Class IV price forecast. The all milk price is raised to $24.15 to $24.25 per cwt for 2014, but is lowered for 2015 to $18.85 to $19.75 per cwt.

COTTON: This month’s U.S. cotton 2014/15 estimates include higher production and ending stocks. Production is raised to 16.4 million bales, as increases for the Southwest and Southeast more than offset a reduction for the Delta. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged, resulting in ending stocks of 5.1 million bales. The marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast to fall between 56.0 and 64.0 cents per pound, with the expected midpoint of 60 cents the same as last month. The global cotton 2014/15 forecasts also show only minor revisions this month, leaving ending stocks marginally higher. Production is raised slightly as increases for Burma, the African Franc Zone, and the United States are mostly offset by reductions for China, Australia, and Uzbekistan. Estimates for Burma’s supply and demand are revised beginning in 2000/01 based on review of data sources for production and trade. World consumption is raised marginally, owing to increases for Burma, which are mostly offset by a decrease for China. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Acting Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Seth D. Meyer, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.

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