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USDA WASDE


12 September 2013

USDA WASDE - September 2013USDA WASDE - September 2013


USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected imports from a larger wheat crop in Canada. U.S. trade and food use changes by class largely reflect higher projected exports by Canada. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat imports are raised 10 million bushels and Durum imports are raised 5 million bushels. Partly offsetting is a 5- million-bushel reduction in projected Soft Red Winter wheat imports. Food use is raised 10 million bushels for HRS wheat and lowered 10 million bushels for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat. HRS wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels reflecting increased competition from Canadian spring wheat. HRW wheat exports are raised an offsetting 10 million bushels on the strong pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks. Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range to $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel, well below the 2012/13 record of $7.77 per bushel.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 3.0 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. World wheat production is projected at a record 708.9 million tons, up 3.5 million this month. Higher production in Canada, the European Union (EU), and the FSU-12 more than offsets reductions for Iran and Paraguay. Production is raised 2.0 million tons for Canada as cool July weather supported flowering and reproduction, and abundant soil moisture and favorably warm, dry weather in August aided grain fill and maturity across the Prairie Provinces. EU production is raised 1.5 million tons as harvest results confirm increases from the United Kingdom and Germany in the west to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria in the east. Small increases are also made this month for Poland and the Czech Republic, both in the EU, and for non-member Serbia. FSU-12 production is raised 1.0 million tons as harvest results boost production 0.5 million tons for Ukraine and smaller increases are reported for Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Iran and 0.4 million tons for Paraguay.

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered slightly as reduced wheat feed use for Australia, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia is partly offset by higher feeding in Canada and Brazil and higher food use in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Indonesia. Global wheat trade is raised with higher imports expected for Egypt, Iran, and Brazil. Import reductions for South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam limit the global import increase. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for the EU and 0.5 million tons for Canada, both with larger crops. Partly offsetting these increases are export reductions of 0.4 million tons for the UAE and 0.3 million tons each for Paraguay and Uzbekistan. With global consumption down slightly, higher production boosts projected global ending stocks 3.3 million tons. World wheat stocks are now expected to increase during 2013/14.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected higher this month as forecast increases in corn and sorghum production more than offset declines in projected beginning stocks for the same crops. Corn production is forecast 80 million bushels higher at a record 13.8 billion bushels. The national average corn yield is forecast at 155.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from last month. Higher yields for the Central Plains and across the South more than offset yield reductions for Iowa and North Dakota. Sorghum production is forecast 37 million bushels higher with the national average yield raised 6.1 bushels per acre mostly with higher yields and production for Kansas and Texas.

Corn supplies for 2013/14 are projected 18 million bushels higher due to increased production; however, projected imports are reduced 5 million bushels and beginning stocks are down 58 million bushels on lower imports and higher use projections for 2012/13. Projected corn use for 2013/14 is unchanged. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 18 million bushels higher. The projected season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel.

Total corn use for 2012/13 is projected 55 million bushels higher. Corn used in the production of ethanol is raised 15 million bushels based on stronger-than-expected August ethanol production as indicated by weekly ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration. Partly offsetting is a 5-million-bushel reduction in corn used for sweeteners. Corn exports are raised 20 million bushels based on the latest information from the U.S. Bureau of Census and August grain inspections. Projected feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels reflecting the limited amount of new-crop corn available for use before September 1 due to delayed 2013 crop maturity. The 2012/13 season-average farm price for corn is lowered 5 cents per bushel from the midpoint of last month’s projected range with the lower prices reported for July and August. At $6.90 per bushel, the 2012/13 price remains a record and well above the previous record of $6.22 per bushel in 2011/12.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 0.5 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower foreign corn production. Foreign 2013/14 corn production is lowered 2.5 million tons with reductions for Argentina, Canada, Serbia, and Paraguay. Reductions for Argentina and Paraguay reflect smaller expected areas for crops that have yet to be planted. Foreign corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are raised 1.0 million tons mostly with an increase in 2012/13 Brazil production. Barley production for 2013/14 is raised 1.0 million tons for the European Union and 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Ukraine. Russia barley production is lowered 0.5 million tons. In addition to this month’s 2013/14 sorghum production increase in the United States, sorghum production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Cameroon. Nigeria millet production is lowered with the data series revised back to 2011/12.

Global 2013/14 corn consumption is lowered with reductions in corn feeding in Argentina, Canada, and Serbia more than offsetting an increase for South Korea where wheat feeding is reduced this month. South Korea corn imports are raised accordingly. Corn exports for 2013/14 are lowered for Argentina, Paraguay, and Serbia. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 1.3 million tons higher with larger stocks in Brazil and the United States.

RICE: U.S. 2013/14 rice supplies are increased 5.6 million cwt or 2 percent because of increases in beginning stocks and production. Imports are unchanged from a month ago. U.S. rice production in 2013/14 is forecast at 185.1 million cwt, up 3.7 million from last month due both to an increase in area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.46 million acres, up 15,000 acres from last month. Harvested area estimates are raised for all states except Mississippi and Missouri which are lowered. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,511 pounds per acre, up 105 pounds per acre from last month, with increases in all states except California and Texas. Record yields are forecast for Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 126.5 million cwt, up 1.8 million from last month. Combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.5 million cwt, up 1.9 million from a month ago. All rice beginning stocks for 2013/14 are raised 1.9 million cwt from last month to 36.4 million (roughequivalent basis) based on USDA’s Rice Stocks report released on August 27.

 All rice domestic and residual use for 2013/14 is raised 4.0 million cwt to 116.0 million, down 2 percent from revised 2012/13. The export projection is increased 2.0 million cwt to 98.0 million due mainly to the increase in exportable supplies—all of the increase in combined medium- and shortgrain rice exports. All rice ending stocks are lowered slightly to 30.0 million cwt, with long-grain ending stocks increased 0.2 million and combined medium- and short-grain stocks reduced 0.9 million.

The 2013/14 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month compared to $14.40 per cwt for 2012/13. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.30 to $17.30 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $16.70 per cwt for 2012/13. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.70 to $15.70 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to $14.90 per cwt for 2012/13.

Projected global 2013/14 rice ending stocks are nearly unchanged from last month as the changes on the supply and use sides nearly balance. Global rice production is projected at a record 476.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month, primarily due to smaller crops forecast for Brazil and China. China’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 142.0 million, down 1 percent from 2012/13. Hot dry weather in the lower Yangtze River Valley and in the southwest stressed mostly the single rice crop. Rice production is likely to be negatively affected in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces. Brazil’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 0.2 million tons to 8.3 million due to a 3 percent decrease in area. Global consumption is lowered 0.9 million tons due to expected declines for India, China, and the Philippines. Global exports are raised slightly from a month ago largely due to an increase in India that is partially offset by a decrease in Brazil. Import projections are raised for Iran and Panama and lowered for the Philippines. Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 107.4 million tons, down less than 100,000 tons from last month, but up 2.2 million from the previous year. Ending stocks are raised for Argentina, Iran, and the Philippines but lowered for Brazil, China, South Korea, and Panama.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 93.2 million tons, down 3 million from last month due to lower soybean, cottonseed, and peanut production. Soybean production is projected at 3.149 billion bushels, down 106 million due to lower yield prospects, especially in the western Corn Belt. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 from last month. Soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 1.37 billion reflecting reduced supplies and increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels to 1.655 billion reflecting lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal consumption. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 150 million bushels, down 70 million. Other changes for 2013/14 include reduced soybean oil production and exports. The 2012/13 supply and demand estimates include a 5-million-bushel increase in soybean imports to a record 40 million and a 5-million-bushel increase in crush. Ending stocks remain unchanged at 125 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.50 to $13.50 per bushel, up $1.15 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $400 per short ton, up $55.00 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are projected at 43 to 47 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint as large global vegetable oil supplies pressure prices.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 495.1 million tons, up 2 million from last month. Gains in foreign production more than offset lower forecasts for the United States. Global soybean production is projected almost unchanged at a record 281.7 million tons as larger crop forecasts for Brazil and Paraguay mostly offset reductions for the United States, Canada, China, and Russia. Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at a record 88 million tons, up 3 million on increased area. Recent price strength and a weaker real are expected to provide incentives for soybean producers to increase area by 4 percent from last year. Soybean production for China is reduced 0.3 million tons to 12.2 million on lower yields resulting from excess rainfall and flooding in the northeast. If realized, this would be China’s smallest soybean harvest since 1992/93. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 1.4 million tons to a record 41.8 million on higher forecasts for Ukraine and the European Union. Record production is forecast for Ukraine as favorable rainfall and temperatures in August and early September improved Ukraine yield prospects. Other changes include higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for the European Union, higher peanut production for India, and higher cottonseed production for Brazil and India.

Little change is expected for global soybean trade in 2013/14 as lower exports for the United States and Argentina are offset by higher exports by Brazil and Paraguay. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 81.2 million tons, up 0.5 million as gains for rapeseed and sunflowerseed more than offset lower soybean stocks.

SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2013/14 is increased 328,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as higher production and imports more than offset lower beginning stocks. Projected sugar production is up 250,000 tons, based on higher forecast sugar crop yields. Higher imports account for additional refined specialty sugar announced in the 2013/14 tariff rate quota (TRQ) and lower projected TRQ shortfall. With higher domestic production and TRQ entries, projected imports from Mexico are reduced. Total use is increased in line with the increase in 2012/13 use. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are increased to 19.5 percent of use, compared with 16.9 percent last month.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2013 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised in 2013 on greater cow and bull slaughter. The pork production forecast for 2013 is raised as lower hog slaughter in the second half is more than offset by heavier average carcass weights. Both broiler and turkey production are raised for 2013 based on the strength of production and hatchery data to date. Egg production is unchanged.

For 2014, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced. The beef production forecast is raised as higher second-half production increases more than offset a reduced first-half forecast. Placements are lowered for the third and fourth quarters in 2013 but raised for first-quarter 2014 as more cattle are kept on pasture and winter wheat for placement early next year. Partly offsetting the increase in later-year marketings and relatively high early-year cow slaughter is a small reduction in carcass weights. Pork production is unchanged for 2014. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 27, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2014. For 2014, broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced as soybean meal prices are forecast higher and turkey returns remain under pressure through the early part of the year. The egg production forecast is lowered for 2014 as table egg production growth will be dampened by higher soybean meal prices.

Beef imports are reduced for 2013 based on the current pace of imports with a reduced forecast carried through 2014. Global beef supplies are tight and demand by competing importers is expected to limit growth in U.S. imports. Beef exports are higher for 2013 based on the strength of shipments to date. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Pork exports are raised for both years as export demand to countries in Asia and North America continues to be strong. The 2013 broiler export forecast is reduced as recent exports lagged expectations, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports are unchanged for 2013 but lowered for 2014.

Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month. Hog prices for both 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month. The broiler price forecast for 2013 is lowered based on current price weakness. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. The turkey price forecast is reduced for 2013 on relatively weak demand and slightly higher production, but 2014 is unchanged from last month with slower forecast production growth. Egg prices are forecast higher for 2013, reflecting current prices; the forecast for 2014 is unchanged.

The 2013 milk production forecast is reduced from last month, reflecting recent slower growth in milk production. The production forecast for 2014 is unchanged. For 2013 fat basis and skimsolids imports are lowered slightly from last month. Exports are raised for 2013 and carried into 2014 on strong international demand for dairy products. With forecast export demand, fat and skim-basis ending stocks are reduced in 2013 and 2014.

Product price forecasts are mostly higher, with strong export demand and tightening supplies supporting increases for nonfat dry milk (NDM), butter and cheese prices in 2013 and 2014. The whey price forecast is unchanged for 2013 but raised for 2014. With increased product prices, Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are higher. The all milk price is forecast at $19.70 to $19.90 per cwt for 2013 and $19.35 to $20.35 per cwt for 2014.

COTTON: This month’s 2013/14 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include marginally lower production and lower exports compared to last month, resulting in a slight increase in ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 3.9 million based on revised stocks data for July 31, 2013. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are lowered 200,000 bales due to increased competition for market share, mainly from India. The forecast range for the marketingyear average price received by producers is lowered 3 cents on each end to 69 to 85 cents per pound, reflecting recent market activity and prospects.

The world 2013/14 cotton supply and demand estimates show higher ending stocks resulting mainly from increased production. Production is raised 1.0 million bales, based on improved crop prospects for India, Brazil, and Greece, partially offset by reductions for the United States and Syria. A small net decrease in global consumption includes reductions for India and South Africa, partially offset by increases for Indonesia and Turkey. Higher estimated world trade reflects increases in both imports and exports for India, as well as higher imports for Indonesia and Turkey. The China balance sheet is largely unchanged this month, based on currently announced reserve purchase, release, and import quota policies for 2013/14.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.

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