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TheDairySite Newsletter - 24 April 2015

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TheDairySite
Friday 24th April 2015.
Michael Priestley - Editor

Michael Priestley
Editor


Novus International

MSD Animal Health

Difficult Times Ahead for US Dairy Farmers

Weak prices will continue into the next quarter for America’s dairy farmers through a period of oversupply.

This grim forecast has been offered by agricultural analysts at Rabobank, noting that low feed prices are maintaining farm profitability.

They say milk production is refusing to drop in any meaningful way. This despite large swathes of the US suffering from precipitation issues.

In its April review, Rabobank said: “With fewer exports, more imports, weak domestic demand and milk production growth only slowly reducing, the US is headed for an oversupply of milk which will further pressure prices here and abroad.”

Rabobank sees butter and cheese bucking the trend of otherwise ‘lacklustre demand’, but adds this is merely matching a rise in imports.

Any improvement at the farm gate in the second half of 2015 will require stronger imports and less supply, says a University of Wisconsin economist.

However, dairy farms are reporting more cows than this time last year, particularly in Michigan which has seen its herd rise by 22,000, said Professor Bob Cropp.

He added that there were 23,000 more cows collectively across South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Iowa but says early forecasts for milk prices may have been a little pessimistic.

He said: “If the growth in milk production continues below two per cent, and it looks likely, milk prices may decline only slightly over the next couple of months and show a little stronger increase for the last half of the year.

“Some improvement in dairy exports is still anticipated by the last half of the year which would add strength to milk prices.”

He suggested cow numbers would not increase at the rate previously expected through the rest of the year.

Futures, on the other hand, were a “little optimistic” with no weakness in any milk prices for the months ahead.

Exports are being limited by the strength of the dollar, said the US Department of Agriculture in its justification of its revision down of fat and skim-solids last month.

“The milk production forecast for 2015 is lowered from last month as slower growth in output per cow more than offsets faster herd expansion,” said the April WASDE report

"Both fat and skim-solids exports for 2015 are reduced as export demand is hampered by a strong dollar and increased competition from other exporters.

"Fat basis imports are higher on expectations of greater butterfat imports. However, robust domestic demand is expected to support increased product use."




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This Week's Articles and Analysis

Does Forage Particle Size Affect Heifer Distiller Grains Utilisation?
Particle size is important for digestion in cattle, but there was little difference between growth performance of heifers fed either chopped or pelleted diets in a recent study.

Heifers Weaned Later Do Better
Replacement heifer calves weaned at heavier weights continue to outgrow the others, Irish research shows.

What Has Happened to Australian Milk Since Deregulation?
Far from doubling in size, Australia's milk output as at best stagnated since deregulation, reports Dairy Farmers of Canada.

Saving Farmers Time and Money
Radio-frequency ear tags are widely used in Europe but are yet to take on in the US. However, a team of engineers in North Carolina are sure they could do a lot of good to a lot of farms.

Global Dairy Markets Stagnate
Large Chinese stocks of milk powder and increases in Northern Hemisphere milk production are causing continuing soft prices heading into the US/EU spring flush.

Market Reports

Canadian Dairy Statistics - 23 April 2015
USDA Cold Storage - 23 April 2015
USDA Dairy Products - 23 April 2015
Irish CSO Reports - Livestock Slaughterings March 2015
USDA Milk Production - 22 April 2015
Australian Rural Commodities Wrap - April 2015
Dairy Australia - Market News - 17 April 2015
USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - April 2015

Global Dairy Industry News

   Global

Uniting to Sustain African Farming

   European Union

More Freedom for EU to Decide on Use of GMO's for Food and Feed

   United States

Protein Packaging Sector to Be Worth $11 Billion in 2019
Beating BVD Rests on Persistently Infected Calf
Antibiotic Stewardship Requires Data and Diagnostics

   Ireland

Help for Irish Farmers to Control Johne's Disease

   Australia

Australian Farmers Want Trade Deal to Centre on Agriculture
Managing a Cow When it's Down

   United Kingdom

New Cheese Promotion Campaign Launched
Vets Call for Badger Cull Change
Political Parties Commit to Food and Farming
Welsh Markets to Display bTB History on Screens
Yeast Feed Additives Can Help Milk Yield
Plan Now to Prevent Liver Fluke Later
Organic Cows Show No More Mastitis than Conventional
New Replacement for 'Freedom Food' Label
Heifer Rearing Problems Flagged Up at Science Conference
New Projects Announced in Animal Disease Research
Improving Cattle Health Could Decrease Greenhouse Gas Emissions

   China

China Steps up Monitoring of Farm and Aquatic Products
Rise in Price Chinese of Farm Produce

   Germany

Germany Focuses on Farm Animal Welfare

   Austria

Only Minor Role for Bacteria in Cattle Stomach Ulcers

   Colombia

Colombia Closer to Bovine Brucellosis Eradication

   Finland

Food Safety Body Recommends Heating Raw Milk

   India

Small Indian Farms Get More Disaster Payments

   Belgium

Microphones Could Detect BRD Earlier

   Canada

Canada’s Food Production Growing but Wasting More

Events/Promotions

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Biomin - Surveying the Global Mycotoxin Threat

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