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Wyckoff's Closing Report: December Cattle Closes Higher

26 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - December live cattle closed up $0.30 at $131.57 Thursday.

Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh 6.5-month high close. Live cattle futures are were supported on ideas of higher cash cattle prices to be fetched this week. The bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price "breakout" objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at $133.00.

The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $129.00.

First resistance is seen at this week's high of $131.70 and then at $132.00. First support is seen at $131.00 and then at today's low of $130.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

November feeder cattle closed up $1.10 at $165.15 Thursday. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh contract high. The feeder bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $167.00.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $163.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $165.17 and then at $165.50.

First support is seen at today's low of $164.50 and then at $164.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

December lean hogs closed down $0.87 at $87.72 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw profit taking from recent gains that saw prices hit a contract high on Wednesday. Steady to weaker cash hog prices Thursday helped to pressure the futures.

Traders are awaiting the quarterly USDA hogs & pigs Report on Friday afternoon. The report is expected to show all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1 at 98.6% of year-ago levels as the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has likely taken a toll on the pig crop.

Kept for breeding is expected to come in at 101.5% of last year's level. The hog bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $86.00.

First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $88.00 and then at $88.50. First support is seen at Thursday's low of $87.20 and then at $86.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

Grains

December corn futures closed up 2 cents at $4.563/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering in a bear market. The corn bears remain in firm near-term technical control.

Traders are looking ahead to next Monday's USDA quarterly grain stocks report, which is not expected to be a bullish report for corn. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $4.63.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $4.45 3/4. First resistance for December corn is seen at Thursday's high of $4.57 3/4 and then at $4.63.

First support is seen at Thursday's low of $4.51 and then at this week's low of $4.48 and then at $4.45 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

November soybeans closed down 5 cents at $13.16 3/4 a bushel Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls are on the defensive in the near term, amid seasonal price pressure from the U.S. harvest.

Cash basis levels are also weak. Traders are looking ahead to next Monday's USDA quarterly grain stocks report, which is not expected to be a bullish report for soybeans.

Soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $13.50 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $13.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $13.05 1/4 and then at $13.00. First
resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $13.22 3/4 and then at $13.31 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December soybean meal closed down $2.20 at $414.90 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range. The meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are still shaky.

The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $432.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $400.00.

First resistance comes in at Thursday's high of $417.30 and then at this week's high of $419.40.
First support is seen at Thursday's low of $413.40 and then at Wednesday's low of $411.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December bean oil closed down 4 points at 42.05 cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high and did hit a fresh contract low early on. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 43.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 41.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 42.18 cents and then at this week's high of 42.50 cents.

First support is seen at the contract low of 41.70 cents and then at 41.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents at $6.78 1/4 Thursday. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh seven-week high. A bullish rounding-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.

While the wheat market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, bulls have gained good upside technical momentum and recent price action suggests a major market low is now in place.

Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $6.79 3/4 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $6.79 3/4 and then at $6.85.

First support lies at Thursday's low of $6.68 1/2 and then at $6.62 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December HRW wheat closed up 9 cents at $7.27 1/4 Thursday. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh 10-week high on more short covering.

The HRW wheat market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained good upside momentum to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $7.37 1/2.

The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00.

First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $7.28 and then at $7.37 1/2. First support is seen at Thursday's low of $7.16 and then at $7.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December oats closed up 4 3/4 cents at $3.18 1/2 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.00.

Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.25 3/4.

First support lies at Thursday's low of $3.14 1/2 and then at $3.10. First resistance is seen at $3.20 and then at $3.23. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

TheCattleSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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