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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
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CME: Canadian Cattle-on-Feed Report

US - CME's Daily Livestock Report for 15th July, 2008.

Higher feed costs, a strong currency and possible complications relating to the upcoming US country of origin labeling legislation have all negatively impacted the cattle industry in Canada.

E-Livestock Volume 15-Jul 14-Jul 8-Jul
LE (E-Live Cattle): 18,172 20,873 20,184
GF (E-Feeder Cattle): 1,490 895 1681**
HE (E-Lean Hogs): 18,758 19,053 15,900

The latest feedlot inventory survey, which covers the two Canadian provinces where most feedlots are located, showed a continuing decline in feedlot numbers. Total feedlot inventories in Alberta and Saskatchewan as of July 1 were pegged at 783,554 head, 11.6% lower than a year ago. The total inventory number was also 2.5% lower than the July 1 average of the past five years, which is quite significant considering the turmoil that followed the BSE outbreaks and the negative impact this had on the Canadian beef industry. Indeed, the latest inventory count is the lowest July number since 2004. June feedlot placements also continued to drop and at 106,873 head they were 15.5% lower than a year ago. However, there was considerable difference when looking at the type of cattle that were placed on feed. Placements of light animals, those weighing 700 pounds or less, were much higher than a year ago but these animals at this time of year make up a small portion of the overall cattle placed on feed. Placements of steers and heifers weighing less than 700 pounds were reported to be 15,551 head, 80% more than a year ago but making up less than 15% of the overall number of cattle placed on feed. The bulk of the placements in the summer continue to be made up of heavier animals, and those numbers declined some 22.5% from a year ago.

Besides the obvious implications that lower feedlot inventories have for beef supplies in Canada, and more broadly in North America, one also has to consider the outlook for the Canadian beef industry going forward. A recent report from CanFax, the market analysis division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, pointed to the continuing liquidation of the Canadian beef cow herd and estimated that the July 1 cow inventory in Canada could be 5.7% lower than a year ago. If that estimate proves correct, it would make the July 1 Canadian cow inventory the lowest in almost a decade. Given rising feed costs in Canada and a weak US currency (which makes feeding cattle in the US and selling beef to Canada a less expensive proposition), there is a sense that we could see further reductions in Canadian fed cattle and beef output in the years ahead.





Daily Livestock Report - Copyright © 2008 CME. All rights reserved.


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